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2011 Fantasy Baseball, THE RUBBER Week 9: Top 50 Pitcher Rankings

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I understand that there are different types of fantasy players.  

There are those just now playing for the first time and then there are those who have been playing since the 80’s when they had to keep score by hand.  

There are people that play in only one league with a group of good friends and then there are those who have team totals in the double digits.  

There are those who do not care all that much who are satisfied by a cursory look at the roto numbers when setting their lineups and then there are those who think Fangraphs is the Bible and advanced metrics are the gospel.

I get that.

But no matter how low one’s give-a-damn meter goes, no matter how little one’s experience, and no matter how slight one’s skill level, there are certain questions that should not be asked.  A quick scroll of my Twitter feed at almost any time can produce a dumb question asked to a fantasy analyst.  Some examples:

Rest of the way more valuable – Lincecum or Konerko?  

When I am king, the guy who asked that question will not be allowed to play fantasy baseball.  Had he said he desperately needed power and was loaded with starters, I would not fault the guy for considering it.  But to ask who has more value?  There is no reason anyone who plays fantasy baseball should not know the answer to that question.

Would you trade Greinke and Gio for Kemp and King Felix?

Someone is going to have to explain to me why it would ever be a bad idea to acquire two top 20 draft picks that are both performing well when the cost is only a number two fantasy starter and a guy with a BB/9 over 4 whose average draft position was the 20th round.

I was offered Matt Holliday for Angel Pagan and Franklin Gutierrez. Thoughts?

I’m not even going to say anything about this one.  Let’s just move on and talk some pitching.

Cherry Popped
Jordan Lyles (Houston Astros, 2.1% owned)

For Astros fans, Tuesday night was the best night in quite some time.  Five seasons have passed since the ‘Stros won the NL pennant, and three of the last four seasons have been losing ones in Houston.

But on Tuesday night, a little glimmer of hope showed up on the mound at Wrigley Field.  Jordan Lyles, easily the best prospect that the Astros have, made his major league debut against the Cubs and pitched as if he has no intention of returning to AAA this season.

7+ IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 4 K.

Lyles cruised through seven innings and was only chased in the 8th because of his own throwing error trying to get the lead runner on a sacrifice bunt.  Aside from appearing to overthrow to the first couple of batters, Lyles looked calm and in control.  His fastball tops out right around 90 mph, but he accompanies it with what appears to be a very good changeup, a decent little tailing two-seamer, and an average curve that he uses sparingly.

One start does not make Lyles an option in all formats, but he is definitely worth an add in NL-only leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 12 teams.  He might even be a decent spot start option in a 12 team league his next time out as he gets the Padres on Sunday at Petco.  Both the Padres and Petco have a tendency to make pitchers look their best, so give Lyles some consideration if you are looking for a spot start this weekend.

Hurts So Good
Erik Bedard (Seattle Mariners, 87.8% owned)

Bedard’s line in May: 5 GS, 2-0, 1.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 8.65 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 1.81 FIP, 2.56 xFIP

Damn.  It just goes to show that his only flaw is his affinity for the disabled list.  When Bedard actually has a toe on the rubber, he is one of the better pitchers in the game.  

But as you surely know, Bedard has a little ‘DL15’ next to his name more often than not.  Because of that you have to handle him a certain way.  If you grabbed him off the wire, feel free to ride that streak as long as it lasts.  Or better yet, try to find someone willing to gamble on his health and parlay his fantastic May into a safer option.

Whatever you do, do not be the one trading away anything of value in order to take on Bedard and all the risk that comes with him.  I would be willing to bet every dollar that I have (which is only about 75 bucks) on Bedard landing on the DL before the season ends.

The Top 50
1. Roy Halladay | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  1
2. 
Tim Lincecum | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  2
3. 
Cliff Lee | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  3
4. 
Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week:  4
5. 
Jered Weaver | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  5
6. 
Dan Haren | Los Angeles Angels | 100% owned | Last week:  6
7. 
Justin Verlander | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week: 7
8. 
Cole Hamels | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  8
9. 
CC Sabathia | New York Yankees | 100% owned | Last week:  9
10. 
Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  10
11. 
Shaun Marcum | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  12
12. 
David Price | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  15
13. 
Zack Greinke | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  16
14. 
Tommy Hanson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  11
15. 
Jaime Garcia | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  13

I am not sure I have ever seen a number on ESPN’s player rater as low as Garcia’s number for the last seven days.  I did not even know a number could get all the way down to -7.51.  But that is what happens when you give up 11 earned over three and a third.  Eesh.  I have never seen a pitcher that good have a start that bad.

All that said, I think you have to chalk it up as an aberration.  I still have my concerns about Garcia’s innings increase from 2009 to 2010 and how that will affect him later this season, but unless it turns out this last start was the result of an injury, I do not see any reason to panic with Garcia.  In fact, if the blow up scared the guy that owns Jaime in your league, I would not be afraid to try and get him on the cheap.

16. Matt Cain | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  20
17. 
Jon Lester | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned | Last week:  14
18. 
Daniel Hudson | Arizona Diamondbacks | 98.7% owned | Last week:  18
19. 
James Shields | Tampa Bay Rays | 100% owned | Last week:  21
20. 
Roy Oswalt | Philadelphia Phillies | 100% owned | Last week:  19
21. 
Chad Billingsley | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  22
22.
 Ricky Nolasco | Florida Marlins | 100% owned | Last week:  23
23. 
Michael Pineda | Seattle Mariners | 100% owned | Last week: 24
24. 
Anibal Sanchez | Florida Marlins |100% owned |Last week: 32

Anibal is the hottest thing in Miami right now, even hotter than the NBA Finals-leading Heat.

Over his last four starts, Sanchez is 4-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 0.72 WHIP while striking out more than a batter per inning.  Obviously he will not be that good all season, but his season totals (2.60 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) look pretty legit according to his peripheral numbers.

25. Josh Johnson | Florida Marlins | 100% owned | Last week:  17
26. 
Yovani Gallardo | Milwaukee Brewers | 100% owned | Last week:  33
27. 
Josh Beckett | Boston Red Sox | 100% owned| Last week:  25
28. 
Trevor Cahill | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week:  31
29. 
Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado Rockies | 98.6% owned | Last week:  29
30. 
Ricky Romero | Toronto Blue Jays | 100% owned | Last week:  28
31. 
Ian Kennedy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 100% owned | Last week: 34
32. 
Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | 100% owned | Last week:  35
33. 
Hiroki Kuroda | Los Angeles Dodgers | 100% owned | Last week:  26
34. 
Mat Latos | San Diego Padres | 99.9% owned | Last week:  36
35. 
Brett Anderson | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week:  37
36. 
Tim Hudson | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week:  38
37. 
C.J. Wilson | Texas Rangers | 100% owned | Last week:  39
38. 
Jhoulys Chacin | Colorado Rockies | 100% owned | Last week:  40
39. 
Max Scherzer | Detroit Tigers | 100% owned | Last week:  30

Scherzer has allowed 14 earned runs in his last two starts.  He actually managed seven K’s in 6.2 innings his last time out, but his recent struggles have only furthered my opinion that Scherzer cannot always be trusted.

40. Wandy Rodriguez | Houston Astros | 78.5% owned | Last week:  27
41. 
Jonathan Sanchez | San Francisco Giants | 100% owned | Last week:  41
42. 
Brandon Morrow | Toronto Blue Jays | 95.5% owned | Last week: 42

If you are searching for K’s, Morrow is a guy you might be able to acquire based on his current ERA of 4.38.  His FIP (2.26) and xFIP (3.17) suggest that he has pitched better than that.

He is going to walk a lot of guys (3.92 BB/9), so he is going to hurt your WHIP.  But if you can afford to take the WHIP hit, Morrow could be the solution to any K problems you are having.

43. Gio Gonzalez | Oakland Athletics | 100% owned | Last week:  43
44. 
Jordan Zimmerman | Washington Nationals | 60.4% owned | Last week: 44
45. 
Gavin Floyd | Chicago White Sox | 57.7% owned | Last week: 50
46. 
Jair Jurrjens | Atlanta Braves | 100% owned | Last week: 45
47. 
Bud Norris |Houston Astros | 47.7% owned | Last week: NR
48. 
Chris Carpenter | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week:  49
49. 
Kyle Lohse | St. Louis Cardinals | 100% owned | Last week: NR
50. 
Bartolo Colon | New York Yankees | 41.0% owned | Last week NR

I’m as surprised as you are.
Out this week: 
Ted LillyJustin MastersonJohn DanksAll ownership percentages from ESPN.com 

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who only likes triple digits on the radar gun.  It’s too damn hot in Texas.  You can follow him and/or ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @therealTAL.

(February 23, 2011 – Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images North America)


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Tags: The Fantasy Fix,  2011 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Advice, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings, 2011 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings, Brett Talley, Pitching Profile, The Rubber
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