2011 National League East Pitching Preview: Josh Johnson & The Florida Marlins

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· January 20, 2011

Josh Johnson

In 2010, most of the Florida starting pitchers looked like fish out of water on the mound. The Marlins’ starting pitchers were behind the league average in ERA, quality starts, and innings pitched per start. For a team with well known starters, each of whom has found success at some point in his career, the Marlins of 2011 have a good chance of improving from last season’s woes.

Josh Johnson has been fantasy gold the last two years. Despite a drop in wins in 2010, he had a 2.30 ERA, the second best in the majors (King Felix was first with a 2.27 ERA). He was also second to Hernandez in quality start percentage (Johnson 82% and Felix 88%).

Part of his drop in wins is on the shoulders of his offense though. He had six games, the most in the majors, which were considered to be “wins lost”, meaning the Marlins’ bullpen cost Johnson the game he was in line to win. He’s a strikeout machine, averaging more than nine strikeouts per nine innings, and his fabulous home run per nine innings rate (0.3) led the majors (allowed an average of less than one dinger for every three games). It might be tough for Johnson to have as good a year as he did in 2010, but assuming he can stay healthy, Johnson is in line to be a top ten pitcher for 2011.

Marlin newcomer Javier Vazquez will look to rebound from his 5.00+ ERA and 6.9 K/9 rate with the Yankees last season. Before his 2010 New York Yankees stint, Vazquez had five straight seasons of 200+ innings and at least eight strike outs per nine innings.

Re-entering the NL East in 2011, Vazquez will likely be the Marlins’ second or third starter. He has a career 3.74 against the rest of the NL East. For a guy who has had multiple seasons of high ERA’s, Vazquez can still be considered a good play because of his strikeouts. His 2009 season with Atlanta was Vazquez’s best season of his career with personal bests in ERA (2.38), WHIP (1.03), K/9 IP (9.8), and BB/9 IP (1.8). I like him as a nice fantasy baseball sleeper in 2011 with the Fish.

Ricky Nolasco

In his last three seasons, Ricky Nolasco has been consistent in wins, but inconsistent in ERA. As a fantasy owner, I often look for consistency in starting pitchers. That doesn’t mean I will immediately cross out Nolasco from my rankings, but his off and on numbers should be considered when drafting. He missed all of September in 2010, and still managed to get 14 wins in 26 starts. If he stays pretty healthy in 2011, expect Nolasco to go about 190 IP with 180 K’s and 15 wins. If I had an idea about his ERA in 2011 I’d tell you. But with this guy, I could be dead on or wildly off by two whole points.

We saw what Anibal Sanchez can do in a full season with the Marlins. Starting 30+ games for the first time in his five-year career, Sanchez pitched 195 innings while posting a 3.55 ERA with 157 strike outs. It is tricky to tell what Sanchez will do in his second full season with Florida, but a similar season to 2010 is likely. In case your league uses “losses” as a pitching category, Sanchez would fall in the rankings. In the stat books, he had 12 losses last year. However, Sanchez was tied for fifth in “losses saved” by his bullpen with six. With that said, he did have some luck like any other pitcher, but it’s not tough to say Sanchez could have been a 15+ game loser in 2010 (the league average for pitchers with 180+ IP is ten losses).

One Fish, Two Fish, New Fish, Old Fish (CBS Sports Overall Starting Pitcher Rankings):

Josh Johnson (10), Ricky Nolasco (41), Anibal Sanchez (65), Javier Vazquez (76)

Written by Tyler Becker exclusively for www.thefantasyfix.com. Look for Tyler’s weekly insight into MLB, NFL, & NHL. You can follow Tyler on Twitter @FantasyProdigy

Where do these four fall in your 2011 fantasy baseball overall pitcher rankings?
Leave a comment and let us know, or reply to us on twitter @TheFantasyFix

Want to read Tyler's other National League East previews to prepare for your 2011 fantasy baseball draft? Read the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.

2011 National League East Pitching Preview: Josh Johnson & The Florida Marlins