Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy, April 29, 2019: DraftKings Value Plays
Tonight’s 9-game slate features two hurler priced at/over the $10,000 mark on DraftKings (Justin Verlander – $10,800 – @ MIN and Patrick Corbin – $10,200 vs. STL) and three additional arms above $9,000 (Kenta Maeda – $9,700 @ SFG, Zack Wheeler – $9,300 vs. CIN and Eduardo Rodriguez – $9,100 vs. OAK). Values aren’t this easiest to find on the mound, so we’ll need to find value elsewhere in their lineups to squeeze in each of the ideal arms into our lineups if you’re spending up on the mound tonight. With that said, here are a trio of bats that present value on Monday that will provide you with some roster flexibility.
As always, these players are projected to be in today’s starting lineups but please pay attention to team lineups once they are released.
Stevie Wilkerson | Orioles | OF | $2,200
Switch-hitting Stevie Wilkerson should get the nod tonight for the Orioles against southpaw Manny Banuelos and the White Sox. The game total currently sits at 8.5 with an Orioles team implied 3.95 runs. The wind seems to be blowing out slightly towards right center which is not a huge bump for LHB but worth mentioning. Wilkerson showed some speed and power in a small sample at Triple-A this season and has one of each so far in six games (20 PAs) since the call up. He’s whiffed 35% of his PAs and has yet to take a walk, which is cause for concern long-term. However, for tonight, Wilkerson is a $2,200 OF punt that will allow you to get some of the higher priced arms or bats you’re targeting into your lineups.
Nate Lowe | Rays | 1B | $3,100
Left-handed slugger and top first base prospect Nate Lowe got the call early on Monday and will be with the Tampa Bay Rays in time for first pitch. He’s locked into the five-hole with the platoon advantage against Brad Keller and the Kansas City Royals. The current run total sits at 8.5 with a Rays implied run total at 4.7. Keller has been good to start the season but his ERA-FIP suggests he’s due for some regression, which could start this evening. At times it’s tough to pay down at 1B given the typical pricing at the position, but tonight is a good time to play value with Lowe in order to pay up in the OF or on the mound in tournaments and cash.
Jesus Aguilar | Brewers | 1B | $3,200
Aguilar is off to an incredibly awful start to the season. He’s slashing .123/.217/.151 with a .178 wOBA and a .027 ISO. Aguilar has yet to leave the yard in the Brewers’ first 25 game stretch of the season. He’s back in the lineup tonight after some time on the pine. Fortunately for Aguilar, he’ll be facing left-handed hurler Kyle Freeland who is also struggling and making his first start since being activated off the IL. For the BvP crowd, Aguilar is 2-for-5 with one homer and two strikeouts against Freeland. Freeland owns a 4.66 FIP and a .319 wOBA while surrendering 30 of his 37 career home runs against right-handed bats. The Brewers stack will be popular tonight, but a Jesus Aguilar one-off could be a low-owned, high ceiling option with access to the 8.5 run total.
Admittedly the aim was to identify values at a couple different positions. Without the writeups, here are a couple more values I like for tonight’s slate: Joey Rickard (Orioles, OF, $3,400 vs. Manny Banuelos), Khris Davis (Athletics, OF, $4,300 vs. Eduardo Rodriguez) and Corey Seager (Dodgers, SS, $3,900 vs. Jeff Samardzija).
In addition to those noted above, here are a few players that will be going long tonight:
Stephen Piscotty. (OAK @ Eduardo Rodriguez), Michael Brantley (HOU vs. Jake Odorizzi) and Ji-Man Choi (TB @ Brad Keller).
Stacks: Rays, Astros, Braves and Brewers