Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit Em, Start Em: Will Fred Jackson Dominate Again?
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After recommending Jackson as a start last week, I'm going right back to the well with him again. He had his best line of the season against Detroit, rushing for 133 yards on 25 carries with a TD and catching six passes for 37 yards adding a second score.
Two fumbles (one lost) are disconcerting, but not a reason to panic, certainly not this week anyway as C.J. Spiller will be on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.
The Bills got overexcited with the success of Fitzpatrick, but are now re-embracing their ground game roots.
Jackson is a second half runner who gets stronger with an increased workload. He averaged 21 rushing yards more per game (77) in the final eight weeks of last season than he netted in the opening eight.
With Cincinnati now 2-7 and coming off a sixth straight heart wrenching defeat, a lackadaisical effort on Sunday would not surprise.
RB Sit – Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Forte ran for 69 yards in week ten, shockingly his second highest total of the season. He's averaging just 47 yards per game on the ground, and accrued 35% of his 470 total in one week (166 at Carolina in week five). Take away that week and he's barely cracking the 30-yard barrier.
It's hard to pin the blame on him as he's rarely given an opportunity to succeed. Forte has only gotten 20+ carries in two weeks, and under 15 carries in six weeks.
Offensive coordinator Mike Martz will give up on the running game before it even gets a chance to click. Not to say that 'clicking' is a likely outcome, as the offensive line rarely wins the battle upfront. Right now his greatest attribute is a receiver out of the backfield (30 receptions), but his involvement has been limited with the recent incorporation of Greg Olsen into the game plan.
The Dolphins rush defense is on the decline (16th), but this week presents an opportune matchup to climb the ladder.
Orton has been the second most productive passer in the NFL thru ten weeks, behind only the record-setting pace of Philip Rivers. He's on pace to finish with 622 pass attempts (the record is 691 by Drew Bledsoe) and his low for attempts in a game is 29. Despite an overly active arm, his proficiency has not taken a hit.
Orton has yet to post a negative TD/INT rate in any game (16:5 rate on the season). He is not opposed to spreading the wealth, hitting six receivers for three or more receptions in week eight, and five more in week ten.
Against a suddenly streaking San Diego team, the Broncos will be forced to the air to keep pace—likely in comeback mode.
The Chargers boast the league's 3rd ranked pass defense, but kind scheduling in the first six weeks aided their standing (KC, JAX, SEA, AZ, OAK, STL). They allowed 253 yards on ten completions to Vince Young in week eight, so they can certainly be exploited.
QB Sit – Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins
Despite his bizarre contract extension (with stipulations), the luster on McNabb is gradually fading.
McNabb has thrown at least one interception in seven straight weeks and 11 total during that span. To exacerbate matters, he's orchestrated just one multiple touchdown game all season (last week after falling behind 35-0). McNabb connected on 76 and 71-yard touchdown bombs against Philadelphia, but that's not characteristic of the 'Skins offense. His yards per pass attempt have only surpassed 7.5 in two of ten games this season.
The Titans corners play a similar style to the Eagles, but Tennessee will rely on the front four to get pressure (27 sacks) rather than heavy blitzing. They rank 25th in yardage allowed, but have intercepted 14 passes against 11 touchdowns. Expect McNabb to be bated into apparent 'rhythm' throws on more than one occasion.
After a pair of quiet performances, Maclin rebounded with a four reception 79-yard effort and a touchdown in a thrashing of Washington. His 48-yard acrobatic TD grab was his 7th score of the season (tied for 5th).
Maclin has been the beneficiary of 64 targets on the year and 14 over the last two weeks since Desean Jackson's return. In a passing game currently operating on all cylinders, the speedster is a threat to explode at any time.
The Giants pass defense ranks 4th in the NFL allowing just 187 yards per game, but was badly exposed last week versus Dallas. The Cowboys had seven plays of 20+ yards in the passing game: 71 (screen for TD), 46, 45, 44, 32, 27, 24 TD. They also had an eighth big play reversed by a coach's challenge. Kitna hit the 300-yard mark in the third quarter before closing up shop trying to nurse the lead.
If New York doesn't get things straightened out in a hurry the Eagles will embarrass them.
WR Sit – Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are an absolute nightmare. They have the 32nd ranked passing offense (and total offense) in the league and the stats are hard to look at: 157 passing yards per game, 52 percent completions and 5.4 yards per pass attempt.
They have no quarterback, no offensive line and no wide receivers to support Smith. His stat sheet is filled with empty lines i.e. three receptions for 22 yards, two receptions for 11 yards and one reception for nine yards. These are clunkers you just don't associate with Smith, but double and triple teams aren't easy to beat.
He has 62 targets on the season, averaging only 3.75 receptions per game for 46 yards.
Whether it's Tony Pike, Jimmy Clausen or Matt Moore behind center, the positives will be few and far between for the remainder of 2010-2011. Reputation should not be a factor here. Smith is a SIT against the Ravens.
Miller is expected to practice/play in week 11 (foot) following the Raiders bye. He suffered his only below average performance of the season in week eight (one catch for eight yards) while playing through injury, and missed week nine versus Kansas City.
Prior to being hobbled, Miller was a consistent producer and top-five caliber tight end. He's been targeted 53 times on the season, eclipsing the 40-yard plateau in each of the first seven weeks and reaching paydirt four times.
The Steelers shut down opposing TE's for the first half of year, but they were absolutely torched by Rob Gronkowski on Sunday night to the tune of 5/72 and three touchdowns. Oakland and New England are entirely different animals to defend, but Miller should put forth a solid effort if healthy.
TE Sit – Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings
Favre's favorite target has essentially been a non-factor since attracting extra attention in week three.
He has 18 receptions for 198 yards over the past six games (3 for 33 per game average), after catching ten for 162 in the opening two weeks.
The Vikings have been downright dreadful inside the 20-yard line, unable to break predictable trends. Shiancoe made a living in the red zone in 2009-2010 scoring 11 touchdowns, but this year has cracked the pylon only twice. He has just 18 receptions in seven career games against Green Bay, including three for 30 in week seven. The thirty-year-old is reverting back to ordinary tight end status.
Written by Adam Ganeles exclusively for TheFantasyFix.com. Check back weekly for Adam's NFL Sit 'Em, Start 'Em
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