Fantasy Football Week 13 Sit Em, Start Em: Don’t Forget Matt Schaub!
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After failure to live up to the pre-season hype, Schaub has been forgotten in many fantasy circles. This could prove costly.
In his last three starts he's completed 66 percent of his passes, thrown five touchdowns against zero interceptions, averaged just shy of 250-yards and working to a 104.8 QB rating.
He was unable to connect on big plays against the "keep everything in front of you" Titans last week, but hit four 20+ pass plays at the Jets in week 11 and three at Jacksonville in week 12.
The emergence of TE Joel Dreessen has softened the blow of an underachieving group of secondary receivers.
Philadelphia's pass defense has allowed nine scores and forced eight picks since their week-nine bye. One way or the other, a meaningful play is being made.
Houston's offensive line has done a better job protecting Schaub in recent weeks (3 sacks in last three games) but will be in for a stern test against the Eagles (30 sacks).
*Eagles CB Asante Samuels is listed as questionable on the initial Wednesday injury report.
QB Sit: David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard has declared his wrist "good to go" for week 13, but I'm not comforted.
The last month has been an up and down roller coaster ride for Garrard. Six touchdowns against zero interceptions the first two weeks, and two touchdowns four interceptions the last two. His QB ratings dropped from 157.8 and 134.1 to 65.1 and 57.1. The latter two performances are closer to his median level.
With Mike Sims-Walker not fully healthy, or at least not himself, the Jaguars lack of downfield weapons is all too apparent. Relying on your tight end for big plays is not a successful endeavor long term.
Garrard averaged just 4.6 yards per pass attempt last week at the Giants. He also fumbled three times, losing one (the game ender), and has now lost three fumbles in the last four weeks.
Quite simply, he's not being protected, and his past history against Tennessee is not aesthetically pleasing: 14 career starts, 11 touchdowns, 12 picks and 33 sacks.
It's a safe bet Garrard will have to utilize his legs with high frequency once again, running for his life rather than by choice.
The Bears finished November with a 52.9 percent run ratio, good for second in the NFL (Rotoworld.com). In those four games, Forte's ground productivity spiked dramatically rushing for 332 yards on 74 carries (4.5). He's still having difficulty finding the end zone, but he's chewing up big chunks of yardage for a change.
After having only one 20+ yard run in the season's opening seven weeks, he had four in November including two last week (61, 28).
His PPR value has gone way down, but let’s flashback to opening Sunday versus Detroit: seven receptions for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps this is the week to reintroduce him to the passing attack?
Success on the ground is expected against a Lions rush defense that ranks 24th and has allowed 13 rushing scores (third to last).
Finally getting an opportunity to spread his wings with regular work, Forte is thriving in a more balanced Chicago offense.
RB Sit: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets
What do you know; the old LT wasn't really 'back' after all.
Since the Jets week seven bye, his greatest impact has come in the passing game, catching 26 balls for 222 yards.
In the rush game, however, Tomlinson has been completely shut down and his workload is gradually decreasing. He hasn't cracked the 100-yard plateau since week four or the 60-yard mark since week five (high of 3.8 per carry).
In the last five weeks his longest run from scrimmage has been a whopping ten yards. That is scary.
Even scarier for his fantasy owners is the 53:43 carry split, now in favor of Shonn Greene.
LT for rushed for 76 yards on nearly seven per rush in week two versus New England, but the Jets philosophy has undergone minor reconstruction since then, putting more trust in their quarterback. The Patriots rank smack in the middle of the pack against the run allowing 110 yards per game. In a non-PPR league, Tomlinson's value is extremely limited.
With only five plays of 20+ yards and three 100-yard games in 2010, Moss is no longer the electric downfield threat he once was.
With that said, he's a first down machine and reliable possession receiver, and is on pace to decimate his previous career high in receptions. He has 62 catches on the year (8th) and has hauled in at least five passes in nine of 11 games. His 94 targets also rank in the top 15.
December has been his most productive month statistically, with 150 receptions and 14 touchdowns as winter rolls in.
Although held quiet the last two seasons, he's had tremendous career success against the Giants with eight scores in 11 games. New York boasts the number one pass defense in the league, but played too conservative last week. They allowed Jacksonville to convert ten third-downs, most through the air in short and manageable situations. If they come out with a similar game plan this week, Moss should be in for a heavy traffic day in the short/intermediate routes.
WR Sit: Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals
Ochocinco stills ranks seventh in the league with 103 targets, but he’s come down with the reception on only 52 percent of passes thrown his way. Of his 54 receptions, 22 of them came in a two-game window, which also happen to be his only two 100-yard receiving games on the season.
The ugly numbers are beginning to pile up i.e. seven games below 50 yards, eight games below five receptions and only four catches of 20+. The Bengals pass offense hasn't been dreadful (11th), but Ochocinco's contributions to the cause have been far from consistent.
The New Orleans secondary has become a legitimate wide receiver killer. Their corners are playing at a freakishly high level, holding opponents to seven air scores and 198 yards per game.
Ochocinco will turn 33-years of age in January, so it's not unrealistic to believe the tail end of his career is approaching.
Signs of life from Brent Celek have been few and far between, but last week was encouraging.
After catching a bagel against the Giants in week 11, Celek rebounded to haul in three balls for 50 yards and a touchdown at Chicago. More importantly, he was targeted eight times by Michael Vick, including a few downfield shots.
Houston's 31st ranked pass defense has allowed 25 touchdowns (NFL worst), which certainly doesn't hurt his cause for start consideration.
Nevertheless, this recommendation does not come without its caveats. Celek has posted four games below ten yards and is amongst the leaders in dropped passes. Potential for high reward is there, but a clunker is not out of the realm.
TE Sit: Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens
Heap has quietly been one of the hottest tight ends around. After taking a 65-yard pass to the house last week, Heap now has five touchdowns in the last six weeks.
His performance, however, has been considerably above his proven standard.
He's been making big plays left and right, as his 15-yard per reception average is dwarfing his 11.7 career mark. Expecting this pace to continue is unreasonable, and he doesn't get enough targets (59) to make up the fantasy points elsewhere. His season high for game yardage is 79, and high for receptions is six (week one).
Outside of what would have to be considered a fluke performance by Rob Gronkowski, the Steelers have bottled up opposing TE’s. A tough sit given his current level, but the cooling process begins in week 13.
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Tags: The Fantasy Fix, Fantasy Football Advice, Fantasy Football, NFL, Adam Ganeles, Sit Em, Start Em, Week 13, Matt Schaub, Houston Texans, Joel Dreessen, David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars, Mike Sims-Walker, Matt Forte, Chicago Bears, LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets, Shonn Greene, Santana Moss, Washington Redskins, Chad Ochocinco, Cincinnati Bengals, Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles, Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens, Rob Gronkowski
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