No doubt the first statistic the average fantasy owner looks at first is Homeruns.  It’s the most exciting, and in many cases if you hit Homeruns, the Runs Batted In & Runs scored are close to follow.  Yet this year I look at the Top 5 in ALL of baseball for HRs and the list is as follows:

1. Jose BautistaTOR     14

2. Paul Konerko CHW   14

3. Ty Wiggington BAL     13

4. Kelly Johnson ARI     12

5. Dan Uggla FLA           12

In most years there is a certain level of predictability with who will club the most HRs.  Where are they this year (Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, or Alex Rodriguez), not even 1 is in the Top 5 (actually the highest is ranked 39th with only 8 long balls).   We have seen the beginnings of a power swing over the past couple of years with everyone being watched for supplements, but this may be the year were we see this come to a head.  Players are starting to hit HRs the old fashion way with mechanics, practice, and a more controlled approach at the plate.

If HRs are going to be tougher to come by then as fantasy owners we will have to make similar changes.  We need to start focusing on the finer details:  Stadiums Friendly to Power, Health, Lineup Protection, Pitching Matchups for the Week, Home/ Away Schedules,  New Hitting Coach?,  Team’s Standing (are they in a Playoff Race/ Potential Trade)?  These are just some reminders of things that you can look at for determining future predictability.  All of them can be easily researched, and will give you a greater edge on the waiver wire, and in the trade market.

True Homerun hitters get streaky; keep an eye on some of the historically better HR hitters due for a streak.

1. Adam Dunn
2. Carlos Lee
3. Carlos Pena

Tags: Fantasy Baseball Advice, Fantasy Baseball Blog, Fantasy Sports Advice, The Fantasy Fix, Adam Dunn, Cincinnati Reds, Carlos Lee, Houston Astros, Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays, Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays