While there were many star rookies in the 2014 rookie class, there were also a handful of disappointments. This article covers rookies that we had had high hopes for but who didn’t live up to the billing. However, these guys could excel in their sophomore campaigns. Whether it was due to circumstance, injury or they just weren’t ready, these players struggled to be fantasy relevant in 2014 but are poised to breakout in 2015.

RB Devonta Freeman, ATL
Last season I predicted Freeman would be the top rookie running back. Obviously that didn’t happen, however, I may have just been a year off. I did not account for Steven Jackson playing a full season or the emergence on Antone Smith (although it was short-lived). It appears likely that the 32-year-old Jackson will be released and Smith is now a free agent. Freeman will win the starting job over Jacquizz Rodgers and even Smith if he is re-signed. This situation may be complicated should the Falcons sign a big name free agent.

As of now, Freeman is primed to make a huge jump next season. In 2014, Freeman carried the ball only 65 times for 248 yards and a TD. He added 30 receptions for 225 yards and another TD. These numbers could skyrocket in 2015. With a full NFL season and another offseason under his belt, the former Seminole should be able to sure-up all those fundamental issues that cost rookie backs playing time. Look for Freeman to be a breakout star next season and a nice fantasy sleeper.

RB Carlos Hyde, SF
Hyde was widely considered to be the best RB in last year’s draft by the majority of draft experts. After being drafted by the 49ers it was clear he would be part of a crowded backfield led by Frank Gore. As expected, Gore was clearly the lead back and Hyde was only given 83 carries. He turned those carries in to 333 yards and four TDs. Rumors have been circulating that Gore’s time in San Francisco is likely over. This would leave Hyde to handle the bulk of the workload for the 49ers. Hyde is a 235-pound power back and is a load to bring down. Hyde has a real chance to put up monster numbers in his sophomore campaign. The 49ers will likely lean heavily on the run if Colin Kaepernick doesn’t turn things around.

RB Charles Sims, TB
Sims was expected to make an immediate impact in a woeful Bucs backfield led by the disappointing Muscle Hamster. Unfortunately an ankle injury cost the rookie the first eight games of the season. When he returned he saw very limited carries and was not overly productive averaging only 2.8 YPC. He did have some success in the passing game, where he is expected to do the most damage. Sims was an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield in college and has the potential to have a ton of PPR value. It would be less than shocking if Sims is the Bucs RB1 next season. A heavier workload on the ground combined with his ability to catch the ball could result in major fantasy production.

WR Josh Huff, PHI
Huff saw limited opportunities as a rookie after being drafted in the third round of the 2014 NFL Draft. He attended college at Oregon where he was recruited by Chip Kelly. He should see more snaps and targets in 2015. On the off chance that the Eagles cannot work out a deal with Jeremy Maclin, Huff’s value would increase exponentially. In his senior year at Oregon, Huff caught 62 passes for 1,140 yards and 12 TDs. The former Duck should be able to jump Riley Cooper on the depth chart and move up to the WR3 spot. With plenty of balls to go around in Philly, he should have a productive season. Another variable that could work in his favor is if the Eagles do manage to acquire Huff’s college QB, Marcus Mariota. The two clearly already have a built-in chemistry. A rookie QB could lean on what’s familiar to him.

WR Cody Latimer, DEN
Latimer saw only four targets as a rookie in 2014. He fished the season with a grand total of 23 yards. That could change a lot next season. There is a very strong possibility that Wes Welker and Julius Thomas will both go elsewhere in free agency. That could leave the second-round pick as Peyton Manning’s third option. Assuming Manning is healthy and does in fact return to Denver, his third option should have an abundance of fantasy value. The coaching staff seems to really love this kid, and with a full offseason to work in the offense as a top option, Latimer should be a nice fit in the Broncos’ passing attack. We have seen many players overachieve when Manning is the one throwing them the ball.

TE Eric Ebron, DET
Ebron was touted as perhaps the most gifted TE prospect since Vernon Davis. Somewhat ironically, the two had almost identical numbers this season and both got off to a slow start to their career. As a rookie in 2006, future star TE Davis totaled just 20 receptions for 265 yards in 10 games. Ebron totaled 25 receptions for 248 yards in 13 games in 2014.

Ebron certainly has the athleticism but lacks a lot of the little things you need to be a successful TE in the NFL. He may never be a great blocker but his hands, route running and understanding of defenses will improve. It took Davis three full mediocre seasons before he put it all together. Ebron has a better QB and is surrounded by much better weapons than Davis was as a young player in the NFL. We are hoping that will help accelerate this process. The Lions’ coaching staff has already expressed that they plan on incorporating Ebron into the offense much more next season. He will likely be a high risk/high reward pick in 2015.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB
Seferian-Jenkins showed some flashes as a rookie but was eventually done in by a back injury. The 6-foot-5 TE out of Washington is a big talented TE and should come into his own next season. The Bucs were a mess in 2014 and had no identity. They were swapping QBs in and out, rotating RBs and had a rookie WR and TE starting in their offense. Lovie Smith is a good coach and will put together at least some semblance of a structured team. Seferian-Jenkins should acclimate well to the NFL and become a very productive NFL TE.

The Super Bowl is now behind us and it’s never too soon to start looking forward to next fantasy season. This is the last of a four part series in our pre-draft, pre-free agency top 10 list. In this article we’ll be going over the tight ends (PPR). They are considered the least important of the skill positions, but if you get an elite guy they can make a huge difference.

1. Rob Gronkowski
What do we really need to say? The discussion for best tight end in the league starts and ends with Gronk. Now the only discussion is if he’s the most dominant TE ever. There is no doubt that Gronk should be the first TE off the board.

2. Jimmy Graham
Graham struggled through a shoulder injury this season but still managed to be a high level TE1. He is pretty much a receiver that plays tight end. The former Miami basketball star can go up and get it in the end zone as well as anybody in the league. His numbers (85 rec, 889 yards, 10 TDs) were a bit down this season but a fully healed shoulder should have him right back to form in 2015. He’s still the clear cut TE2.

3. Martellus Bennett
Bennett was a bit inconsistent last season, nevertheless, he put together a very solid year. The big TE totaled 90 receptions for 916 yards and six TDs. He saw a spike in targets once Brandon Marshall was lost for the season. Bennett became Jay Cutler’s security blanket. There is a good chance that Marshall has caught his last pass as a Bear and Cutler will be back under center. Bennett has become a key part of the Bears passing attack and his big body in the red zone makes him a very formidable threat.

4. Travis Kelce
In what was essentially his redshirt rookie season, Kelce shined in the Chiefs’ offense. For the better part of the year he split time with Anthony Fasano, so his numbers only ended up at 67 receptions, 862 yards and five TDs. Not bad but not spectacular either. However, if you actually watched this kid play, it was clear he was the best weapon in their passing game. Kelce has star potential and we expect him to make a huge jump as the undisputed starter in 2015.

5. Greg Olsen
Olsen has become Cam Newton’s most reliable target. We do expect his targets to come down just a bit this season though (122 targets in 2014). Newton is not expected to be dealing with any ankle or lower body injuries, so he will likely run more often. Also, the Panthers are widely expected to bring in a viable WR2 to put opposite Kelvin Benjamin. With Benjamin developing and a new receiver for Newton to target, Olsen will not have to be leaned on quite as heavily.

6. Antonio Gates
Every year the predictions of Gates’ demise come rolling in. He’s too old, he’s too fat and it’s time for Ladarius Green to take over in San Diego. Then Gates comes out and is a premier fantasy TE. In 2014, Gates tallied 69 receptions, 821 yards and an impressive 12 TDs. He was among the best in the league as he had been for the 10 years previous. I was one of the many predicting Gates’ fall from grace. Not anymore, though. This time I’m riding with Gates until the wheels fall off. He’s going to slow down eventually, but right now he’s well worth the risk.

7. Charles Clay
Clay had a breakout 2013 season and was poised for a huge 2014 campaign. Unfortunately, a preseason knee injury lingered through most of the season and was further exacerbated by a hamstring that cost him two games. His numbers dropped to 58 receptions, 605 yards and three TDs. However, there was a light at the end of the tunnel. After missing Weeks 12 and 13, Clay finally returned healthy just in time for the fantasy playoffs. In the playoffs he caught 14 passes for 214 yards, including a six catch, 114-yard championship performance. Once November hit, the Dolphins began to feature the TE like they had in 2013. It was very successful and we expect that trend to continue in to next season. Assuming Clay returns to Miami, we expect a big year out of him and the Dolphins’ young offense.

8. Julius Thomas
We all know that Thomas is an elite talent when he’s healthy. At least he is when Peyton Manning’s throwing him the football. However, all those factors are now in question. There is a very good chance, perhaps even a probability that Thomas will not be in Denver next season. Then there’s a chance even if he is in Denver Manning may not be, and if he is he may not be healthy. If Manning is healthy, Thomas has injury concerns of his own. Not once in his career has Thomas played a full 16 season. He is young and athletic but right now is surrounded by a ton of questions. He will likely be drafted higher than I’d be willing to pick him. He’s too risky for my liking.

9. Dwayne Allen
Before getting injured, Allen caught seven TDs in nine games. He was the picture of consistency. Week in and week out he would grab 3-4 catches and a TD. Things changed after a serious ankle injury but prior he was very good. He never put up huge numbers but was solid every week. Allen is clearly Andrew Luck‘s go to guy in the red zone, and when healthy he’s proven to be the superior tight end in Indy. I personally prefer Allen over Coby Fleener. Fleener has a higher ceiling but Allen is the safer bet. Don’t be shocked if he improves on eight TD 2014 season in 2015.

10. Delanie Walker
Walker put together a very nice season in 2014. He caught 63 passes for 890 yards and four TDs. He was very up and down. He certainly wasn’t the most consistent TE. However, not too many of them are. We expect Walker to continue to put up similar numbers and round out the top 10. He’s not the sexiest pick but gets the job done.

Just Missed the Cut

Jordan Cameron
He is definitely out in Cleveland, which can do wonders for a player’s fantasy value. Depending on where he lands, Cameron could ascend or descend on this list. I’ll be reserving judgment until after free agency.

Break Out Candidate

Eric Ebron
Ebron had a tough rookie season. His issue is he’s a pretty much a WR playing TE. We have seen guys like Jimmy Graham thrive in that role, though. Ebron should develop after a full season and offseason. His upside is incredible, and he has as high a ceiling as almost anybody in the league. Vernon Davis had a similar career arch coming out of college. Look for Detroit to give him every opportunity to succeed.

Because Somebody’s Going to Ask

Vernon Davis
The 49ers are a mess and Davis was awful in 2014. He will become a popular sleeper by draft time because people will believe he’s a steal. Not me. I’m staying far away from Davis in 2015.

SUPER BOWL XLIX
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Sunday, February 1, 2015. 6:30 p.m. EST, NBC

Finally, after another great NFL season, the Super Bowl is upon us. This is one of the best matchups we have seen in a long time. The clear-cut two best teams in each conference are facing off for their chance at history. The Seahawks are the reigning, defending, undisputed champions of the world. They will be taking on a dynasty led by the greatest head coach and quarterback combo in NFL history, and now, they have a defense for the first time in a long time. The Legion of Boom will do all that they can to slow down a future Hall of Fame QB and the three time champion Patriots. On the other side of the ball, the newly revitalized Pats’ defense will try to find a way to at least slow down Beast Mode and contain a blossoming young QB in Russell Wilson. There are a ton of intriguing storylines and matchups heading into Super Bowl Sunday. Since the only fantasy leagues left at this point are playoff challenges, we will also let you know who you should roll with.

Story Lines

“DeflateGate”

This is one of the most ridiculous stories of the year in my humble opinion. Really? The world is all fired up about how inflated the footballs were in a game. Let’s be honest, how many people really knew that a football needed to be inflated to at least 12.5 PSI before last week? Now you’re in an uproar about it! This is a case of a polarizing team having a seemingly silly “scandal” get blown out of proportion during a time when little else is going on. The two top trending things in the world of “sports” this week were DeflateGate and Roman Reigns. So there you go.

Here is how it works for about 90 percent of people. If you like the Patriots you can look up a ton of evidence that points to their innocence. If you dislike the Patriots you can look up even more evidence that the Pats are guilty. Most people don’t want the facts, they want to be proven right. Congrats everybody, you can be vindicated. Now-a-days in our social media age, people would rather be negative than positive so everything is a “scandal”. Do I think they deflated the balls? Probably. Do I care? Not really. This should have been a footnote of a story. However, thanks to forums, twitter and facebook groups, it’s a scandal.

If you want a fun story that everyone can jump on, how about Alex Rodriguez training with Barry Bonds. You all hate them don’t you? I’m sure some people can come up with a few clever memes about that one.

Marshawn Lynch

Lynch has become public enemy No. 1 and finds himself in Rodger Goodells crosshairs. As we know, the commissioner is always diligent in protecting the integrity of the NFL and only focuses on what really matters. That must be why he threatened to suspend Lynch from the NFC Championship game for wearing gold cleats. While Lynch is not the most cooperative player in the league, Goodell’s ego is clearly getting the best of him. That should be a shock to no one.

Why is Lynch being punished more than any other player? If LeGarrette Blount (for example) came out in gold cleats, no one would say anything and he’d quietly be fined during the week. What gives the NFL the right to single out Lynch? Because he’s not as personable in interviews as Goodell would like? Now the NFL is imposing stricter penalties on Beast Mode. The best part is that Lynch does not care and it’s glorious. If he scores a touchdown, he’s still probably going to grab his crotch and deal with the ramifications. How tremendous will it be if he wins the MVP and Goodell has to hand him his trophy, then he grabs his crotch and only says one word for the entire interview. He is literally capable of saying anything and there is no one I want to see win the MVP more.

Quarterback Legacies

Tom Brady will attempt to propel himself to the highest pedestal with a fourth Super Bowl victory. With Four championships, two more AFC championships and most playoff records, he would be more accomplished than Joe Montana as a playoff QB. This game is huge for the legacy of both Brady and the Pats.

Wilson looks to win his second title in just his third season. Somewhat ironically, Wilson is very similar to Brady. Not the way he plays the game, but his accomplishments and the way he is viewed by the masses. Many consider him a game manager on an elite team and not an elite quarterback. Brady was stuck with the same stigma as a young QB. It will be hard to say anything negative about the young QB if he can add a Super Bowl MVP to his trophy case.

Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas Injuries

Sherman sprained his elbow in the NFC Championship game and Thomas separated his shoulder. They are arguably the two most important players on the Seahawks. Although you can make a strong case for a few other players as well. How healthy these two guys are could be the difference in the game. We really have no idea what kind of condition either player is in. We do know that odds are they’re both less than 100 percent.

Darrelle Revis vs Richard Sherman

Before Revis signed with the Pats, he and Sherman had a beef after Sherman was running his mouth. It seemed like just a lot of noise at the time, then Sherman backed it up and Revis wasn’t as elite last season in Tampa after tearing his ACL the previous season. Sherman declared himself the greatest corner in the world and downgraded Revis. Revis for the most part took the high road. Let his play and contract speak for him. Both guys are the elite of the elite. Perhaps one guy will have a huge Super Bowl moment and separate themselves from the other. If it’s Sherman, lord knows we’ll hear about it. But if he earns the right, then who can fault him?

Who to start

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady
Brady will be facing the Legion of Boom this week, which is never good news. However, there is some good news. Sherman will be playing with torn ligaments in his elbow and Thomas has a dislocated shoulder. Both guys are expected to be a full go, nevertheless, the assumption is they will be at least somewhat limited. We still don’t expect Brady to light them up. What we do expect is that the injuries will limit their big play ability.

Russell Wilson
Wilson may really have his hands full this Sunday. His pass-catchers are clearly overmatched by the talented Patriots’ secondary. Darrelle Revis will most likely take away Doug Baldwin and Brandon Browner will be on Jermaine Kearse. The issue is the whole crew just isn’t overly talented, especially compared to the Pats nine-deep secondary.

Matters may be even further complicated for Wilson. He led all QBs in rushing this season and uses the read-option as one of his most lethal weapons. The Pats will deploy second-year linebacker Jamie Collins to shadow and contain him. If you watch the kid play, he may be capable of doing just that. After facing Collins twice this season, Andrew Luck declared him the most underrated defender in the league. Keep an eye on him.

Verdict
Start Brady. He should outperform Wilson by a decent margin.

Running Backs

There are really three legitimate options here. You can opt for Lynch, Blount or Shane Vereen. Beast Mode is obviously just a monster. He may be the most violent runner of this generation. When you watch him run, he must be the RB that defenders most dread tackling. We know he’s great, but on the other hand we also know that Bill Belichick will do all he can to take Lynch away. They have the personnel to focus on the run and not worry about the wideouts. It will be up to Lynch to overcome Belichick’s schemes.

Blount has been great since returning to New England. He had his way with the Colts in the AFC Championship game, rushing for 148 yards and three TDs on 30 carries. Much like Lynch, Blount is a punishing power back and if he can get going in this game, the Seahawks may be in serious trouble.

Vereen is all PPR value. If the Pats decide to spread out the Seahawks and throw it all night, he could have a monster game. If they decide to pound the ball, then he’s pretty much useless. He is a risk/reward play.

Verdict
Start Lynch. There is a reason they call him Beast Mode.

Wide Receivers

The Pats have some decent receivers. Nobody great but they fit the system well. Edelman is a must play on PPR value alone. You have to go back to October to find the last time he didn’t catch at least five passes in a game. He has also caught at least seven passes in the past six games. So he’s in. So now we need to find a WR2. The true options are Brandon LaFell, Baldwin and Kearse. I guess you can throw in Danny Amendola as a darkhorse as well but he’s tough to trust.

LaFell is the Patriots biggest threat on the outside. He tends to line up on the left sideline which means he most likely will not have Sherman on him. Byron Maxwell is no slouch, however, he is the guy that most teams attack on the outside of the Seahawks’ secondary. So LaFell will get his opportunities if nothing else.

Baldwin is definitely the Seahawks most talented WR. The issue is he will find himself on Revis Island. While Baldwin is better than all the other Seahawks pass-catchers, he is not better than Revis. We fully expect him to be shutdown.

Kearse doesn’t have a much easier task with Browner on him. And if he is at all productive, the Pats will just put a second guy on him and take him away. So unless you want to roll with Ricardo Lockette, the Seahawks WRs aren’t looking so hot.

Verdict
Start Edelman and LaFell. You’re better off taking a chance on a mid-level WR being covered by an injured Sherman than a healthy Revis.

Tight Ends
This conversation starts and ends with Rob Gronkowski. He is the best TE in football and there is no other option. Just to pile on, the Seahawks allowed 11 TDs to TEs this season. Only two teams allowed more. Gronk has caught a TD in five straight games and 10 TDS in the last 10 games. This isn’t exactly rocket science. Not when you’re other option is Luke Wilson.

Verdict
Gronk

Predictions

Final Score
Patriots: 23
Seahawks: 20

Super Bowl MVP
Jamie Collins

Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday January 18, 2015. 3:05 p.m. EST, FOX

Packers’ fans are riding high after knocking off the polarizing Cowboys and silencing their always mouthy fan base. A combination of a one legged QB and fast acting karma doomed Dallas and propelled Green Bay to victory. Aaron Rodgers was visibly hobbled in the game but stepped up when it mattered most. He shined in the fourth quarter and looked like the MVP he will inevitably become at the end of this month. Meanwhile, in Seattle, the Seahawks just continued chugging along, dominating everything in their path. Let’s be honest, the Panthers never really had a chance. Let’s be honest again, neither do the Packers. Not in Seattle, not with a hobbled QB. The Seahawks front seven is going to get at Rodgers and The Legion of Boom will eat them alive. Last time these teams faced off on opening night Rodgers didn’t even throw at Richard Sherman once. More importantly, it’s the last time Rodgers looked really bad. If he was 100-percent, they would have a very slight chance in Seattle. With Rodgers at about 80-percent, no chance. Seattle will get a chance to defend their title in Arizona.

Green Bay Packers: What to look for

Quarterbacks
Believe it or not, Rodgers is the cheapest starting QB on DraftKings.com. If you think that’s crazy, what’s even crazier is the fact that you should go nowhere near him. At $7,800 he is $200 cheaper than next cheapest QB Russell Wilson and $700 cheaper than top QB Tom Brady. Along with Andrew Luck, all three QBs are better options this week than your next NFL MVP. He is playing in Seattle with a tear in his calf. No QB can overcome those odds.

Running Backs
The once duel-threat of Eddie Lacy and James Starks has become a one man show. As a matter of fact, Starks actually has the same $2,000 price tag of Packers full back John Kuhn. Lacy is the second most expensive RB at $6,300. Much like his superstar QB, you are best to avoid him this week. Not only are the Seahawks typically good against the run, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, the matchup sets up particularly favorable for the Seahawks defense. With Rodgers hobbled they will not need to drop extra players back in coverage, not that they usually do anyway. Without the threat of an MVP caliber candidate the Seattle defense will be able to put plenty of focus on the run to slow Lacy down. Smart money is on the Seahawks defense, not anybody else.

Wide Receiver
The Packers WRs aren’t terrible options this week, but as the two most expensive WRs (Randall Cobb $7,700, Jordy Nelson $7,600) they are both very risky plays. Odds are one of these guys will have a decent game. While I would avoid both guys, if you insist on plugging in one of these guys Cobb is the better play. It’s the smaller slot guys that give the Seahawks a lot more problems. The best value at WR may actually be rookie Davante Adams at $4,300. You don’t want to overreact to one great game by a rookie wideout, nevertheless, against a team like Seattle with great corners, the secondary role players can really excel. At such a low price Adams could have some nice value.

Tight Ends
The Packers’ TEs are extremely pedestrian. Their priciest TE Andrew Quarless is only $2,600. While he could possibly catch a TD, that’s about all he brings to the table. With that said, if the Seahawks defense does have a weakness (and that’s a big if), it’s against TEs. They were ranked 16th in the league against opposing fantasy TEs. Yes average is as bad as this defense gets.

Seattle Seahawks: What to look for

Quarterbacks
Wilson is a nice play this week at $8,000. Not only does he statistically have the best matchup of all the QBs, but he’s also the second cheapest. You have to love Wilson in a big game. The Packers also really struggle against duel-threat QBs. For some reason they just can’t seem to slow them down. Wilson is a great play this week.

Running Backs
Speaking of guys you have to love in big games, Marshawn Lynch has a highlight reel of great moments in big games. While he’s by far the most expensive RB this week ($7,600) and disappointed owners last week, the other RBs playing on Sunday do not exactly strike confidence in fantasy owners. The second most trustworthy RB is probably Boom Herron. What does that tell you? Lynch is probably worth the extra cash this week.

Wide Receivers
Doug Baldwin is still a decent pick this week at $5,000. He has as much upside as pretty much any WR in his price range. He may be a top three WR this week period. On the other hand, Jermaine Kearse’s big game last week has inflated his price tag to $3,800. That’s more expensive than a player like Donte Moncrief. While Kearse has some upside, he’s not worth starting this week at that price. You don’t want to buy high.

Tight Ends
Much like the Packers’ TEs, the Seahawks’ TEs are subpar at best. Luke Wilson is their best option and has played decently down the stretch. Nonetheless, he’s not particularly good and priced at $4,000. Dwayne Allen is a much better by at $3,800 or even Quarless as well. Stay away from Wilson this week.

Predictions

Final Score
Green Bay: 13
Seattle: 27

Best Play
Packers: Randall Cobb
Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch

Sleeper
Davante Adams

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Sunday January 11, 2015. 4:40 p.m. EST, CBS

Surprisingly this game has really been swept under the rug this week. If you would have said a few weeks ago that Peyton Manning will be taking on the Colts and Andrew Luck in a playoff game, I would have thought the storylines and coverage would be exploited to the point of being unbearable. Turns out it seems like it has third billing. The Cowboys have top billing because they divide fans so much. Then shockingly the Pats-Ravens rivalry has a lot more steam than at least I personally realized.

However, this is an extremely intriguing game. I really don’t care about Manning facing his old team or Luck taking the torch. What’s interesting is the matchup itself. Luck really struggled down the stretch behind a miserable O-Line and rushing attack. Manning was even worse. Age has caught up with him to the point that he struggles pushing the ball down field and can barely even muster up the velocity to throw a tight spiral. Nonetheless, it wouldn’t shock anybody if this turned out to be a shootout and biggest fantasy game of the week. Neither team garners a ton of confidence right now. Surprisingly it may be decided by the rushing game and defense. This is by far the toughest game this week to predict the outcome. Honestly I believe if the game is close, Luck finds a way to win. However, if it’s a blowout, Denver will be the ones to run away with it.

Indianapolis Colts: What to look for

Quarterbacks
About a month ago Luck would have been a lock for a great choice this week. Now, not so much. He could come out and have a great game, but he could also not nearly live up to his $8,700 price tag on DraftKings.com. The Colts’ offensive line has deteriorated and the running game hasn’t been the same since Ahmad Bradshaw went down. While T.Y. Hilton continues to play like a future star despite a few drops last week, Reggie Wayne is really beginning to show his age and dealing with a tricep injury on top of it. Still, no one would be shocked if Luck came out this week and put up 30-plus fantasy points. He’s just not the safe pick he was in early December. He is a bit pricey for me, but no one would blame you if you plugged him in. Especially in a game that has major shootout potential.

Running Backs
With Trent Richardson reduced to an occasional punt coverage role, Boom Herron is probably the top back in Indy. However, after putting the ball on the turf last week, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Zurlon Tipton get work. But we still think Boom is a safe bet for about 10-to-12 carries and has a ton of PPR value. He also has a moderate shot at scoring a TD. He has decent value at $5,300 this week. If you can’t budget in one of the star RBs, Herron is a great option on the second tier. He may be a tiny bit overpriced only $100 cheaper than Justin Forsett. While we don’t love Herron’s matchup against a tough Broncos’ rush defense, Heron is still a feature back and since he has more PPR value he should be alright. Don’t be afraid to plug in Herron this week. He doesn’t have a ton of upside but is a pretty safe pick.

Wide Receivers
As we mentioned before, Hilton is the clear star in this WR corps and Wayne is struggling through injury. If you want to spend the money on Hilton, he should be a very good play and is a bit cheaper than the most elite WRs. Wayne should be avoided. He just isn’t healthy and it shows. The guy who is really intriguing is Donte Moncrief. At only $3,600, he may turn out to be a great play. If Aqib Talib can at least limit Hilton, Moncrief will probably be the next receiver in line to produce. If you are looking for a cheap option at WR with major upside, roll with Moncrief this week. We really like him.

Tight Ends
I say the same thing every week and I’m not changing now. Dwayne Allen is the TE to own, especially considering he is $1,100 cheaper than Coby Fleener. Allen has proven over the past few years that he is clearly the more talented and more productive TE. Now that Allen is healthy and still cheaper, he is clearly the guy to own. When healthy Allen is pretty much a lock to catch 3-4 passes for 50-60 yards and a TD. He is really the model of consistency. On the other hand, while Fleener has more upside when it comes to yardage, he lacks consistency and isn’t nearly the red zone threat of Allen. His inflated price tag diminishes his value.

Denver Broncos: What to look for

Quarterbacks
Since Week 14 Manning has been a shell of his former self. Last time we saw him, the Bengals’ secondary had their way with him. Now it’s possible the week off did wonders for him and he could have a great week. Personally, I’m not going anywhere near him and his $8,400 price tag. This may seem a bit crazy but if all the QBs cost the same, I would still rank Manning seventh this week. He could make me look really silly, nevertheless, avoid the declining future Hall of Famer.

Running Backs
C.J. Anderson is going to have a monster game this week and he’s going to have to if the Broncos are going to win. I have just as much confidence in him as I do in DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy. Anderson is well worth the money and the Broncos are going to lean heavily on him. It would not shock me if he gets in the area of 25-to-30 touches. Against that Indy rush defense, he may have a special game.

Wide Receivers
In all likelihood, premier corner back Vontae Davis will be covering Demaryius Thomas. This could devalue you him a bit his week. At $8,500 he is not a bad play but may not be the best either. Emmanuel Sanders has been the better option down the stretch as Manning’s ability has waned. He is $1,300 cheaper than Thomas and has much more value this week based on his cap number. If you plan on taking a Broncos’ WR, grab Sanders. If you’re wondering why Wes Welker wasn’t featured it’s because he has been reduced to an afterthought at this point.

Tight Ends
Julius Thomas hasn’t been the same since he sprained his ankle. Nonetheless, Manning’s weak arm coupled with the fact the Colts have given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season makes Thomas a very intriguing play. He is still the second most expensive TE at $200 more than Greg Olsen. His $5,300 tag is way down from what it was earlier in the season though. He is a bit risky, nevertheless, he’s probably a pretty solid play this week.

Predictions

Final Score
Indianapolis: 27
Denver: 24

Best Play
Colts: T.Y. Hilton
Broncos: C.J. Anderson

Sleeper
Donte Moncrief

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday January 11, 2015. 1:05 p.m. EST, FOX

This is by far the most hyped game of the weekend. It’s a bit surprising how much it has trumped Peyton Manning taking on Andrew Luck and the Colts, but I guess the Cowboys are very polarizing thanks to their lovely and always intelligent fan base (not including our brilliant editor who actually grew up in Texas). The Cowboys have had a storybook season. The storybook was aided by nightmarishly bad somewhat questionable officiating, but a storybook tale nonetheless. This week they head to Lambeau Field to take on the man who will most likely be named the league MVP at the end of this month. If the Cowboys have any chance of winning this one, they will need DeMarco Murray to have a monster game. It doesn’t seem feasible that a very average Cowboys’ defense will shut down Green Bay’s high-octane attack. But the Packers may be able to slow down Tony Romo, which is why Murray will be the key to their unlikely success. With all that being said, this game certainly isn’t a lock, but the Cowboys are significant underdogs.

Dallas Cowboys: What to look for

Quarterbacks
Romo is surprisingly somewhat cheap this week on DraftKings.com with a price tag of only $7,600. That’s sixth out of eight starters. It would not be surprising to see him be the most owned QB this week. The issue Romo may have is that the Packers’ strength on defense is pressuring the QB and forcing mistakes. They are awful against the run. So Dallas may lean heavily on Murray and limit Romo this week. While his downside always scares us, he does have a ton of value this week. Unfortunately, for Romo’s fantasy owners, this game probably won’t be a blowout by Green Bay. They should be able to stick with their game plan for at least most of the game and avoid must pass situations.

Running Backs
The Packers await the league’s top rusher while toting the league’s 23rd ranked rush defense. He’s the most expensive RB this week at $8,400, and it’s always risky paying for the most expensive player at a position. But Murray is well worth it if you can afford to budget him in. He was my personal runner up for fantasy MVP this season and there is little reason to believe that he won’t continue his superior play this week. There may be a few RBs with better value this week, but none are better fantasy options when all things are even. So play him if you can.

Wide Receivers
Dallas actually has a few options here. Obviously Dez Bryant is an elite level WR and is priced as such. If you’re grabbing an elite WR you can’t go wrong with Bryant, but the same can be said for most all elite fantasy wideouts. If you feel he’s the best WR this week, play him. It’s as simple as that. When things get interesting is when you get down to the bargain bin and find Terrance Williams ($4,100) and Cole Beasley ($3,900). Williams was a TD or bust guy for most of the season but has actually played very well the past three weeks. He still doesn’t have a ton of PPR value, however he’s putting up decent yardage and finding the end zone. Beasley on the other hand is a guy that has PPR value. He lacks big play ability though. Odds are he will catch more passes than Williams, so his floor is a bit higher. Williams ceiling is way higher. If you want to grab one of these guys get Williams. Play the hot hand and swing for the fences. Beasley isn’t anything special.

Tight Ends
The writing is clearly on the wall for future Cowboys’ Ring of Honor member Jason Witten. He is nearing the end and this could even be his last hoorah. With that said, he does still have something left in the tank for this playoff run. He has a fair but not great price tag this week at $4,800. You could take him or leave him this week. There are better players at a higher price and better value at lower prices. Go with your gut here. He is priced fairly and his performance could really go either way. We’ve seen him play great at times and terrible at times this season. Don’t expect him to flop, however, odds are he won’t put up monster numbers either. If you want him, plug him in. If not, that’s fine too.

Green Bay Packers: What to look for

Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers is by far the best QB in the league right now. What else is there to say? He was historically great at home this season throwing 25 TDs and no INTs. There is also little doubt that he will be this season’s MVP. This week he plays a mediocre defense at Lambeau. He costs $8,900 but of course he’s worth it. If you want to go with a value pick at QB and grab someone cheaper that is completely understandable. Nonetheless, if you want to grab Rodgers, that makes a whole lot of sense as well.

Running Backs
The once two-headed monster of Eddie Lacy and James Starks has turned in to “The Eddie Lacy Show” and with good reason. Lacy has a punishing style rivaled only by BeastMode in Seattle. His combination of size and speed is unbelievable. As long as he can stay healthy, he can be as good as almost any RB in the NFL. This week his price tag is $7,200, which is the lowest of the elite. Lacy has great value this week and could be in for a monster game. It wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a lot of carries on the frozen tundra and with Rolando McClain in the league’s concussion protocol, the Cowboys may really struggle to slow down Lacy. Do not be shocked if he outperformers his counterpart Murray on the other sideline.

Wide Receivers
Jordy Nelson and Randal Cobb are great. Both are elite and they’re good enough that you can start both and win. That’s of course if you can afford both. Cobb comes $1,000 cheaper so he may have slightly better value all things considered. They also have Davante Adams at only $3,100. He is of course a very risky play but with Rodgers at the helm and the top WRs drawing a ton of attention, Adams has the upside, maybe the most upside of any of the desperation receivers in that price range. We would never say start Adams. All we are saying is if that’s all you can fit in your budget, you could do worse.

Tight Ends
The highest priced Packers TE is Andrew Quarless at only $3,000. That should tell you all you need to know about the Packers TEs. Unless you need a very cheap desperation play, it’s best to avoid all the Packers’ TEs. If you play one it’s pretty much just a cross your fingers and hope situation.

Predictions

Final Score
Dallas: 27
Green Bay: 38

Best Play
Cowboys: Demarco Murray
Packers: Eddie Lacy

Sleeper
Terrance Williams

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Saturday January 10, 2015. 8:15 p.m. EST, FOX

This should be the biggest mismatch of the entire playoffs. You have the sub-.500 NFC South champions heading to Seattle to take on the defending champs on their home field. The Seahawks have a historically great defense, a budding superstar at QB, BeastMode in the backfield and just to pile on, the best home field advantage in the NFL. The Panthers pretty much made the playoffs by default and beat arguably the worst QB to ever start a playoff game in the first round. They had been playing better down the stretch, however, knocking off the champs appears to be extremely unlikely. If somehow Cam Newton can go in to Seattle and beat the Seahawks, it will be a career changing moment. This is his chance to take that next step. Unfortunately, odds are he’ll just go down like most everybody does. There isn’t even really a key matchup in this game. Seattle is pretty much just better at every aspect of the game. What Carolina needs is Newton to somehow play the game of his life. The type of game that turns mere mortals into legends. Unless that happens, this probably isn’t going to be a classic.

Carolina Panthers: What to look for

Quarterbacks
Newton is the cheapest of the eight starting QBs this week on DraftKings.com and with good reason. He is in Seattle taking on the Legion of Boom. In all honesty, Aaron Rodgers would be a bad play in the same situation. I love Newton but he’s certainly not Rodgers. It’s not just him. There really isn’t anybody, at any position, that’s a great start in Seattle. Find someone else to start this week.

Running Backs
As dominant as the Seahawks are against the pass, they’re almost as good against the run. Plus the Panthers will likely be playing from behind and forced to throw the ball. At $4,800 Jonathan Stewart is priced as the seventh starting RB ahead of only whoever New England decides to start. Since he is so cheap, he could perhaps be a desperation play. However, that’s all we can give him. You are probably better off avoiding the Carolina backfield.

Wide Receivers
The only WR in Carolina that deserves consideration on a weekly basis is Kelvin Benjamin. We love this kid! He is no doubt a young, talented star in the making. He’s still a bit raw, so he is up-and-down at times. Nonetheless, if you’re a Panthers fan or fantasy owner you have to be thrilled with the big bodied first round pick out of Florida State. With all that said, stay far away from him this week. All of the Seahawks secondary will be focused on KB and that does not bode well for his prospects on Saturday. In fairness there is less than a handful of WRs in the league you should consider starting in Seattle. Benjamin is not one of them. He may be great one day, he’s just not there yet.

Tight Ends
If the Seahawks do have one weakness on defense, just one chink in the armor, it’s against TEs. They rank 16th in the league when it comes to allowing fantasy points to opposing TEs. That is dead center of the league. So it’s not like they’re awful against TEs. However, Greg Olsen is a decent start this week. He is an excellent TE and his price is down to $5,100 because he is up against that Seahawks defense. He is by no means a sure thing, but he is also not a terrible play like everybody else on the Panthers.

Seattle Seahawks: What to look for

Quarterbacks
What Russell Wilson has been able to accomplish as an NFL QB is unbelievable. He is as close to great as you can get. Wilson is the best combination we have in the league of rushing and passing in a QB. He led all QBs in rushing but still is a pass first QB with excellent accuracy. He was great in the fantasy playoffs and there is no reason to believe he won’t be great in the NFL playoffs. At $7,800, he’s an excellent star this week with great value.

Running Backs
What’s not to love about Marshawn Lynch? He is a unique combination of size and power and runs with a fury rarely seen. He always tends to step up when it matters most. We all remember his ridiculous run against the Saints in the Wild Card round and what he did against Arizona on Sunday night when the NFC West was on the line. The guy is a Beast, plain and simple. He is a bit pricey at $8,000, behind only DeMarco Murray ($8,400), nevertheless, he’s well worth the price tag. The guy is just that good. If you can make cap room for him, plug him in. He will not let you down.

Wide Receivers
At only $4,500 this week, Doug Baldwin is perhaps my favorite value pick of the week. He comes cheaper than Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith and Benjamin. At the same price I like Baldwin as much as any of those guys this week. So cheaper, he’s a must start for me. The only way I don’t pick up Baldwin is if I decide to build my team around superstar WRs or I just can’t afford him. Otherwise, he is a very smart play this week. No other Seahawks WR is worth starting as more than a desperation play. In that case Jermaine Kearse at $3,200 would be your best bet.

Tight Ends
Whether it’s Luke Wilson, Tony Moeaki or Cooper Heflet, no Seahawks TE should be trusted. They are nothing more than a desperation play at best and then deciding between which one is like throwing a dart. Dwayne Allen cost only $100 more than Wilson and Owen Daniels $200 more. Find a way to budget them in.

Predictions

Final Score
Carolina: 13
Seattle: 31

Best Play
Panthers: Greg Olsen
Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch

Sleeper
Doug Baldwin

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Saturday January 10, 2015, 4:35 p.m. EST, NBC

At this point is seems like these teams face off every year in the playoffs. Surprisingly, Joe Flacco has gotten the better of Tom Brady up to this point. Something happens to Flacco and the Ravens come playoff time. They just seem to elevate to a different level. Baltimore’s defense played great last week against a short-handed Steelers offense, however, this week may be a whole different story. The Ravens pass rush is what fueled their defense last week. They will have to be very careful that Brady does not pick them apart with underneath routes to Shane Vereen, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens will have to lean on their rushing attack to have success on offense. Darrelle Revis will most likely take away Torrey Smith and the rest of the secondary isn’t too shabby either. If Flacco doesn’t play out of his mind, like he is capable of in the playoffs, it may be a long day for the Ravens’ passing game. Especially if Eugene Monroe is not healthy on the Ravens’ O-line. That could allow Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich to wreak havoc and disrupt everything the Ravens want to do.

Baltimore Ravens: What to look for

Quarterbacks
We all know how well Flacco has played in the playoffs throughout his career, nevertheless, he comes cheap this week. That’s for a good reason. On DraftKings.com, he cost only $6,900. That’s seventh cheapest out of the eight starters this week. Only $200 more than Cam Newton, who is in Seattle. Flacco hasn’t exactly been elite this season and is going up against one of the best secondaries in the NFL. While the Smith’s (Torrey and Steve Smith) are solid options, they are no match for the Patriot corners. At least not at this point in Steve’s career. So it will be up to Flacco to really excel. That’s tough to count on this week. The one positive is that odds are Flacco won’t make a ton of mistakes. He rarely turns the ball over in the playoffs. Just don’t expect huge numbers either.

Running Backs
While the Pats have a great secondary, their run defense doesn’t allow much of a reprieve. With Vince Wilfork clogging up the middle and young LBs like Jamie Collins coming into their own, it will not be a cake walk for Justin Forsett. Nonetheless, Baltimore will need to lean on him to control the clock and move the ball. Regardless of the numbers, I’m taking my chances pounding it with Forsett every time over using T. Smith to test Revis. Forsett had a major price drop this week and costs only $5,400. He is a very risky play, but at $1,800 less than the No. 4 back Eddie Lacy, he could have a lot of value this week. If you only have enough cap room to start a second tier back, Forsett may be your best bet.

Wide Receivers
Both Smiths are solid players but far from great. On the other hand, the Patriots corners are not far from great. As a matter of fact they are very close to great. It also doesn’t help that even if one of them does go off, it’s tough to predict which one will. Torrey is a big play deep threat who has had a knack for scoring TDs this season. Steve is a gritty, ferocious, undersized veteran wideout who plays a lot bigger than he actually is. He moves the chains, breaks a long one and everything in between. They come fairly cheap at $5,800 (Steve) and $5,600 (Torrey). Still, a guy like Doug Baldwin with a $4,500 price tag may be a better option this week against Carolina. No matter which Smith you go with, it’s a very risky play.

Tight Ends
If you’re going to exploit the Patriots’ defense, utilizing your TE is probably your best bet. The Pats have given up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing TEs this season. They don’t have great LBs in coverage and often times even drop back DE Ninkovich in coverage. At only $3,600 this week, Owen Daniels may be a steal. He has been a disappointment this season and hasn’t showed much to invoke a ton of confidence, nevertheless, the matchup and price tag are very favorable this week. He may be worth grabbing if you aren’t looking to spend a lot on a TE.

New England Patriots: What to look for

Quarterbacks
It’s hard not to love Brady against that Ravens’ secondary. Unless of course you believe last week was a sign of things to come. It was more likely an aberration caused by the fact that without having to worry about Le’Veon Bell they could just pin their ears back and all but ignore the run, leaving all the focus on Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and the passing game. With all that said, Big Ben still threw for 334 yards and a TD. With Aaron Rodgers‘ health a bit of a question and Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck struggling mightily down the stretch, Brady may be the most trustworthy option at QB this week.

Running Backs
The Ravens’ run defense is fantastic. Even with Haloti Ngata suspended for four games, they allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing RBs than any team in the league. That coupled with the fact that you really can’t ever trust a Patriots’ RB pretty much makes their RB corps a non-factor this week. If they abandon the run and decide to just go with a short passing game, Vereen will be your best bet. Outside of that, completely avoid all of them. Vereen is a very risky play as well, even at only $4,800.

Wide Receivers
Much like the RBs, it’s hard to depend on a Patriots’ WR. If you decide to go with a Pats’ wideout, it has to be Edelman. If nothing else he has a ton of PPR value. He sat out Week 17, but in the last four games he played, Edelman caught 33 passes for 366 yards and two TDs. He finished the season hot and is a safe bet to catch at least six or seven passes. He is a steal this week at $6,400. On the other hand, Brandon Lafell ($6,000) has the most upside in the group but is far from safe. No other Patriots’ WR is worth mentioning. Edelman is the guy to target here.

Tight Ends
Gronk is the best TE in the league hands down. He may be the best TE the league has ever seen. So if you can afford him, start him. Even at $7,100, he’s worth the money. That’s $1,800 more than the No. 2 TE Julius Thomas. Still worth it. He is not the guy we need to focus on, we know he’s great. Plenty of people are going to try to grab Tim Wright for $3,000. He had a few big games this season, however, he only had four games in which he caught more than one pass this season. He is as risky as risky could be. Reports out of New England are that he may be a bigger part of the offense this week. That remains to be seen. Gut feeling, he puts up around 10 fantasy points this week. That is purely a gut feeling though.

Predictions

Final Score
Baltimore: 20
New England: 27

Best Play
Ravens: Justin Forsett
Patriots: Tom Brady

Sleeper
Tim Wright

Prior to the 2014 fantasy football season, TheFantasyFix.com released a few articles on potential sleepers to target in your drafts or auctions. Now that the 2014 fantasy football season is officially in the books, I figured it would be a fair exercise to look back at the recommended “sleepers” to see if they did indeed pan out for those who invested in them this season.

You can find an excerpt of our “Potential Wide Receiver Sleepers to Target” article here that was featured in our 2014 Fantasy Football Draft Guide written by Jake Ciely.

And while many writers and outlets use the term “sleeper” in a variety of ways, for this exercise, I was simply looking to identify pass catchers who looked like a good bet to outperform their average draft position and earn those who drafted said skill players a profit by season’s end.

Final rankings taken from the Yahoo! game in a half-point per reception league.

Wide Receivers:

Wes Welker | Preseason ADP: 62 | Final Ranking: 254

The veteran presence of Welker on a Broncos’ pass-heavy offense with Peyton Manning under center seemed like a good recipe for the real Broncos and your fake football team. But an off-season that included a four-game suspension — that was eventually overturned — some injuries and the addition of wideout Emmanuel Sanders seemed to contribute to Welker’s down season. Welker hauled in just 49 receptions on 64 targets for 464 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games — the fewest in each of those categories in his entire career. Comparatively speaking, Sanders hauled in 101 passes on 140 targets for 1,409 yards and nine touchdowns while Julius Thomas scored 12 touchdowns on just 43 receptions and 60 targets. It’s hard to say someone whiffed on a sleeper call without knowing about a PED suspension and/or predicting injuries, but this pick just didn’t pan out.

Golden Tate | Preseason ADP: 97 | Final Ranking: 50

When the original article was published, Tate had an overall ADP of 97 and was the 39th wide receiver off the board. After a spectacular season, Tate finished as the 50th overall player and 13th ranked wide receiver. In 16 regular season contests, Tate hauled in 99 passes on 136 targets for 1,331 yards and four touchdowns. Tate failed to find pay dirt all that often, but his 1,331 yards receiving were good enough for seventh best in the NFL. Mind you, a good chunk of Tate’s success came when Calvin Johnson was out due to injury (see splits through week 15 below, thanks to our friends at RotoViz). Although we’re missing data from weeks 16 & 17 on the chart, it’s easy to see the spike in usage and results without Calvin Johnson. But even with Johnson on the field, Tate was on pace for 97 receptions and almost 1,300 yards. Good call on Tate this season and I think he’ll be drafted as a top-20 wide receiver in ‘15.

Cecil Shorts | Preseason ADP: 114 | Final Ranking: 219

It’s the Jaguars. There’s not much to analyze. Cecil Shorts may have struggled a bit more because he was banged up and had a rookie under center this season. He appeared in just 13 games and reeled in only 53 passes on 102 targets for 557 yards and one score. Shorts is not an awful receiver, but he probably shouldn’t be anything more than depth on your fake football bench for injury insurance or a bye week fill-in.

Dwayne Bowe | Preseason ADP: 123 | Final Ranking: 189

The Chiefs signal callers looked Bowe’s way 90 times this year and connected on 60 occasions for 755 yards (12.6 y/r), but he failed to find the end zone during the regular season for the first time in his career. Additionally, Bowe failed to reach the 100-yard receiving mark during a regular season game for the second consecutive year.

Marvin Jones | Preseason ADP: 128 | Final Ranking: 1989

Jones dealt with foot and ankle issues at the start of the 2014 season, but as mid-October rolled around and Jones suffered an additional setback, the Bengals decided to shut down their wide receiver for the remainder of the year. Jones is expected to rebound and be ready for the ‘15 season.

Doug Baldwin | Preseason ADP: 184 | Final Ranking: 126

Doug Baldwin put forth a fine season for the Seahawks, catching 66 passes on 90 targets for 825 yards and three scores. He eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark in two games and recorded receptions of 30 yards or more in five games this year. The Seahawks trade of Percy Harvin increased Baldwin’s role in the passing game, so hopefully this will give us an idea of the value he will carry next fantasy football draft season. Here’s a look at Baldwin’s performance splits with and without Percy Harvin in the lineup in ‘14:

Prior to the 2014 fantasy football season, TheFantasyFix.com released a few articles on potential sleepers to target in your drafts or auctions. Now that the 2014 fantasy football season is officially in the books, I figured it would be a fair exercise to look back at the recommended “sleepers” to see if they did indeed pan out for those who invested in them this season.

You can find an excerpt of our “Potential Running Back Sleepers to Target” article here that was featured in our 2014 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. We’ll follow this running back piece with a review of our wide reciever sleepers shortly.

And while many writers and outlets use the term “sleeper” in a variety of ways, for this exercise, I was simply looking to identify ball carriers who looked like a good bet to outperform their average draft position and earn those who drafted said skill players a profit by season’s end.

Final rankings taken from the Yahoo! game in a half-point per reception league.

Running Backs:

Andre Ellington | Preseason ADP: 31 | Final Ranking: 80

Well after this article published, reports surfaced regarding Ellington’s health heading into the 2015 season. The Cardinals’ back appeared hampered by a foot injury, but started the season despite some suggesting he was not at 100%. Ellington played in each of Arizona’s first 13 games, but accumulated just 663 yards on 201 carries and found the endzone only three times. Through the air, Ellington hauled in 46 passes on 62 targets for two additional scores. So although Ellington exceeded his touchdown total from previous season, his lack of playing time towards the end of the season due to health and total yardage from scrimmage clearly hurt his value. But the fault isn’t all Ellington’s; Arizona’s offensive line ranked 25th in the league in adjusted line yards and 30th in the league in open field yards, according to Football Outsiders. I still believe in Ellington’s skill-set, so I will once again be targeting him in 2015 fantasy football drafts when he may be a nice value on draft day.

Pierre Thomas | Preseason ADP: 90 | Final Ranking: 182

Even upon reflection it’s hard to imagine the Saints’ having the “down year” that they did. And along with the down year for the team came a down year for our potential sleeper, Pierre Thomas. But the down year for Pierre Thomas didn’t have as much to do with the quality of performance when he was on the field, it had more to do with Thomas having a tough time staying healthy, which obviously impacted the volume work he received over the course of the year. Thomas’ earned just 90 touches in ten 10 games in ‘14, down from 224 touches in 16 games in ‘13. Additionally, he found the end zone just three times this campaign compared to the five scores last season. But when he had the ball in his hands this year, he did a bit more with it. Both Thomas’ yards per carry (4.9) and yards per reception (8.4) in 2014 were up from his 2013 (3.7 y/c and 6.7 y/r, respectively) and career (4.6 y/c and 8.0 y/r, respectively) averages.

Carlos Hyde | Preseason ADP: 141 | Final Ranking: 238

A combination of skills and an aging Frank Gore sparked me to peg Carlos Hyde as a back to return value for investors prior to the year. But Frank Gore stayed healthy, limiting the rookie’s touches to just 95 for the 49ers. In 14 games, Hyde carried the ball 83 times for 333 yards (4.0 y/c) and four touchdowns. Additionally, Hyde reeled in 12 passes on 16 targets for 68 yards (5.7 y/r). Not an awful rookie year based on the volume of touches Hyde earned, but hopefully you passed on him and selected the likes of Jeremy Hill, Tre Mason or C.J. Anderson — who all had lower average draft positions — among other rookies on draft day who significantly outperformed the former Buckeye.

Andre Williams | Preseason ADP: 166 | Final Ranking: 82

Like Carlos Hyde, Andre Williams found his way into the sleeper column due to the unfortunate career-ending injury to David Wilson and me not fully buying into Rashad Jenning’s ability to stay healthy or handle a full season worth of work. Williams ended the season with 216 carries for 720 yards (3.3 y/c) and seven touchdowns and added 18 receptions on 28 targets for 130 yards (7.2 y/r) through the air. Williams’ work on the ground may have been a bit disappointing this year, but the Giants’ offensive line ranking of 22nd in adjusted line yards and 28th in open field yards per Football Outsiders sure didn’t help.

Latavius Murray | Preseason ADP: 238 | Final Ranking: 210

Murray earned a slight profit for those who invested in the Raiders’ back late in their 2014 fantasy football drafts. He carried the rock 82 times for 424 yards and two touchdowns while catching 17 passes for 143 yards. Murray broke four runs of 20 yards or more (23, 25, 25, 90), indicating the potential big play ability is there. Like some of the others listed here, the problem was lack of volume. Murray appeared in 11 games, but earned less than 10 snaps in four of those contests. The Raiders’ running back will be one of my favorite targets heading into the 2015 season.