2016 Fantasy BaseballAlan HarrisonFantasy BaseballFront Office

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 27, 2016

Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Friday night’s ten-game slate. We’ve also added a few quick tutorials for you to check out from our partners at RotoQL to help guide your research for today’s games. To learn more about RotoQL or to take a look at the packages they have to offer, please follow this link – it will truly help you become a better daily fantasy baseball player.

The weather outlook isn’t as bad today as it was yesterday, but be sure to check your sources for weather updates prior to lineup locks to make sure all of your players will get some play. Many times you can follow each team’s Twitter feed, but I think Kevin Roth really does a fine job and think you could give him a follow if you don’t already.

PITCHING PERSPECTIVE

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Contrary to yesterday’s slate full of “Coors and Aces,” we have a nice balance of Coors and middle priced value arms for tonight’s 14-game slate. There are just two hurlers that carry a price tag more than $10,000 (Jake Arrieta – $13,800 and Matt Harvey – $10,400) and six total that come in at more than $9,000. This should provide players the ability to mix-and-match an ace with a value arm and still be able to get access to run totals in Colorado or the team of their liking.

My top pitchers for tonight are listed below, but here are a few notes regarding said arms:

Jake Arrieta ($13,800) is on another planet right now. The Cubs come in as huge favorites at the time of this writing (-360) and the wind is blowing in towards home plate at Wrigley. The Brewers whiff the sixth-most in the Majors and own just an 88 wRC+ (25th in the league) against RHP. There’s lots of other value to be had around the league tonight, so in cash I’d be hard pressed not to have a lot of exposure to Jake Arrieta.

If rostering Arrieta doesn’t allow you to gain entry into Coors, Gio Gonzalez at $9,600 should allow you to do so. The Phillies strikeout the seventh-most in baseball against (22.5%) and have posted the league’s 24th-best wRC+ (85) and 27th-best (or should I be saying fourth-worst?) ISO (.125) against southpaws since the start of the 2015 season.

Our friends at RotoQL believe that Marco Estrada at $7,100 is one of the better values of the slate along with Matt Harvey ($10,400). Harve is a bit chalkier and makes for a fine cash play. Estrada seems to be more of a tournament play to me due to the high run total and Roger’s Centre, but that could just mean the Blue Jays are going to beat up on Jose Quintana. Exposure to Estrada in GPPs is the way I’m leaning. Jose Berrios ($6,900) will make his first MLB start tonight, so I’ll be sure to have some shares in tournaments. The rest of the bunch is listed below.

STACK OPTIONS

All lineups have the ability to go off on any night. Well, maybe not against Kershaw, but there’s not Kershaw tonight so we don’t have to worry about that. For the sake of stacks, I’ll be looking at a couple of smaller cash stack along with some bigger tournament stacks.

Mets – The wind is projected to be blowing straight out to center at Citi Field this evening. The Mets have a projected run total of 4.7 according to our friends at RotoQL and they face right hander Jon Moscot that’s struggled in his short time in the league. Lefties in particular have knocked him to the tune of an 8.37 FIP and a -6% K-BB% with a .361 wOBA. This plays well for much of the Mets’ projected 1-7 hitters, so any combination of those will work in tournaments. In cash, I’ll be looking at Curtis Granderson ($4,500), Yoenis Cespedes ($4,700), Lucas Duda ($4,100), Neil Walker ($4,100) and Michael Conforto ($4,000). Like we noted last time, Cespedes owns a .332 ISO against right-handed pitchers and Moscot surrenders more than 30% hard contact (Hard%) to right-handed bats. Evan Longoria is my pick for homer of the day, but Cespedes is second. I think they both go yard tonight.

Marlins – Talked about this yesterday, but the Marlins don’t hate hitting lefties. They’re eighth in the league against southpaws in terms of wOBA (.323) and don’t strike a ton. Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Prado, Marcell Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto are names I’d start with.

Coors – If you’re playing the Coors fade, bless your soul. If you’re in on Coors John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco look to be in good spots on the Pirates. Cheap access to the run total on the Pirates will come via Francisco Cervelli who owns a .332 wOBA but just a .088 ISO against right-handed arms. On the Rockies’ side, we’ll be looking at right-handed bats with the platoon advantage against southpaw Jonathan Niese. D.J. Lemahieu ($4,200), Trevor Story ($5,300), Nolan Arenado ($5,200), Mark Reynolds ($3,900) and Nick Hundley ($3,700) get you a piece of the total. If you’re a BvP truther, you’ll consider Carlos Gonzalez at $4,200 with relative success against Niese in just 16 at-bats against him despite performing below par against other lefties in terms of wOBA and ISO.

For the sake of brevity, other tournament stacks to consider are the Red Sox, Yankees, Nationals, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Angels in that order. You know what to do from here.

Lastly, it’s important to note that any time you throw out a lineup full of bats — or a singleton — against the highest priced pitchers of the evening, you’re going to be contrarian and have a good chance at moving up the leaderboards quickly should they hit. Last night’s example was the Phillies against Max Scherzer early and the Marlins putting up a five-spot on Clayton Kershaw in the middle innings. Tonight, the Phillies, Brewers, Reds and Tigers fit that bill. Consider these options in smaller tournaments.  

 

PLAYER RANKINGS

DRAFTKINGS

CATCHER

  1. Francisco Cervelli – $3,700
  2. Yasmani Grandal – $3,200
  3. Matt Wieters – $2,700
  4. Stephen Vogt – $3,000
  5. Miguel Montero – $2,900

FIRST BASE

  1. Lucas Duda – $4,100
  2. Anthony Rizzo – $4,900
  3. Kendrys Morales – $3,700
  4. Darin Ruf – $3,500
  5. John Jaso – $3,600
  6. Mark Reynolds – $3,900

SECOND BASE

  1. Neil Walker – $4,100
  2. Daniel Murphy – $4,100
  3. Jose Altuve – $4,700
  4. Dustin Pedroia – $4,100
  5. Jason Kipnis – $4,100
  6. Chris Coghlan – $3,300

THIRD BASE

  1. Evan Longoria – $3,400
  2. Nolan Arenado – $5,200
  3. Josh Donaldson – $4,900
  4. Mike Moustakas – $3,900
  5. Alex Rodriguez – $4,100
  6. Justin Turner – $3,300

SHORTSTOP

  1. Jordy Mercer – $4,000
  2. Carlos Correa – $4,500
  3. Xander Bogaerts – $3,900
  4. Alcides Escobar – $3,400
  5. J.J. Hardy – $2,200
  6. Francisco Lindor – $3,800

OUTFIELD

  1. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,700
  2. Bryce Harper – $5,500
  3. Michael Conforto – $4,000
  4. Yasiel Puig – $3,800
  5. Giancarlo Stanton – $5,400
  6. Starling Marte – $5,200
  7. Curtis Granderson – $4,500
  8. Mookie Betts – $4,100
  9. Kevin Keirmaier – $3,200
  10. Brock Holt- $3,200
  11. Coco Crisp – $2,800
  12. Josh Reddick -$3,500

STARTING PITCHER

  1. Jake Arrieta – $13,800
  2. Gio Gonzalez – $9,600
  3. Marco Estrada – $7,100
  4. Hisashi Iwakuma – $9,200
  5. Matt Harvey – $10,400
  6. Patrick Corbin – $7,500
  7. Josh Tomlin – $8,800
  8. Nicholas Tropeano – $5,600

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