2013 Fantasy BaseballAndrew MillerFantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Fix: August 2

DraftKings Team of the Day

Today I’m playing in a $3 Double Up contest, where if you finish in the top 25 of 50 players you earn $5.40. It gives you very good odds to make a little bit of money, and you don’t have to wager too much to play. When you sign up at DraftKings don’t forget to claim your deposit bonus.

There aren’t too many aces going Friday, and a few of those who are have been pretty bad lately. I think I found the two best values at pitcher in Fernandez and Archer. Fernandez has a 2.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the last 30 days, and Archer has five quality starts, a 0.73 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in the last month. I loaded up on Braves, Mets and Blue Jays, as those teams face Ethan Martin, who’s making his big league debut; Wade Davis (5.32, 1.50 in last month); and Tommy Hanson (5.40, 1.30).

Player  Matchup Salary Note
SP – Jose Fernandez
vs. Cleveland 8,000 1.57 ERA, 0.92 WHIP at home
SP – Chris Archer
vs. San Francisco 7,400  1.74, 0.9 at home; no walks in 3 of last 4
C – Brian McCann
Martin 3,700 Always under-priced; good matchup; 3 HR in last 11
1B – Victor Martinez
 Hector Santiago 3,700 .948 OPS, 9.7 PPG in last 11
2B – Daniel Murphy
 Davis 4,600 Good matchup and on fire: 1.013 OPS, 11.9 PPG in last 11
3B – David Wright
 Davis 5,000 Thought he’d cost a lot more; .408 OBP at home
SS – Jose Reyes
 Hanson 4,500 Seriously under-priced; on fire since ASB.
OF – Jose Bautista
 Hanson 4,900  5 HR, 7 BB post-ASB
OF – Jason Heyward
 Martin 3,800 .381 OBP post-ASB w/ 3 HR in last 7
OF – Norichika Aoki
 Jordan Zimmermann 4,100 2 HR, 6 SB post-ASB; Zimm also struggling

Random Thursday Night Thought

Felix Hernandez threw seven great innings Thursday against Boston, allowing just one run. After handing the game over to the bullpen to start the bottom of the eighth, Felix had to have been watching in horror. Seattle’s relievers recorded four outs…and gave up seven runs. Tom Wilhelmsen and Yoervis Medina didn’t even record an out. Boston scored six runs in the bottom of the ninth to win 8-7. At one point in the top of the ninth Boston’s win expectancy was 0.6 percent.

All of that is to say that Felix Hernandez deserves better. I love Felix and the Mariners, and I know the pitcher win statistic is dumb. But Felix is just plain unlucky. In seven no-decisions before tonight’s game, Felix had a 2.57 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 58 strikeouts and only eight walks in 49 innings of no-decisions. His last start? A nine-inning, zero-run, 11-strikeout, 0-walk masterpiece….of a no-decision. AHHHHH. So frustrating.

Felix is having the best year of his career in 2013. His strikeout and walk rates are easily the best of his career, and his 2.48 FIP is also a career best. He’s on pace for his fifth straight season of over 230 innings. If Felix was on a team like St. Louis he’d easily be on his way to 300 career wins. But even with how great that’d be, there’s just something that makes Felix’s tough luck in Seattle even more special – to me at least. This guy will go down as one of the best of all time whether he finishes with 300 wins or 175.

 

 

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