2013 Fantasy BaseballBrett TalleyFantasy BaseballFront Office

2013 Fantasy Baseball: 2B Projections and Roto Ratings

Source: Elsa/Getty Images North America
Source: Elsa/Getty Images North America

This is the seventh installment of our projection series. We are posting a series of articles in which we project the roto stats for all hitters who could be useful in mixed leagues. The projections and “Roto Ratings” for each player are available to those who subscribe to our premium content via our “Front Office” package. Today we have second basemen. We will have first basemen on Wednesday and a complete list of all hitters on Friday.

Big thanks to my buddy Brian Sager (@TheRealSAG) for helping me develop this idea and for talking through the whole thought process with me.

When analyzing a player’s Fangraphs page, you sort of automatically project the stats that you think the player will have in the upcoming season. But because you can’t memorize loose projections for 300+ players, you have to repeatedly go back to a player’s page and go through the mental process of projecting them again. But as a service to our premium content subscribers, I have decided to do the projections myself and make them available on the site.

The first step in the process is simply to project a range of possible outcomes for each player while assuming he plays a full season. To project those possible outcomes I use a variety of stats. To project batting average I factor in plate discipline skills (K%, BB%, Contact%, Swing%, Z-swing%, O-Swing%) and batted ball profiles (LD%, GB%, FB%).  To predict home runs I again use the batted ball profiles as well as HR/FB rate from past years. To predict runs, RBI and steals I consider past performance in those categories, stolen base success rate, and where a player will be hitting in the lineup.

Every player can’t play every day, so you have to approximate how many games you think the player will miss and then fill in those games missed with the stats of the type of guy you might find on the waiver wire. To find that replacement level, I took the stats from the second basemen that were owned in less than 70% but more than 30% of ESPN leagues at the end of last year and averaged their stats. A replacement level guy at second base will give you the following stat line over the course of a season:

Category AVG HR SB R RBI
Stats .258 13 9 63 54

 

The next step is to take the stats you think you’ll get from a player for the amount of games you project him to play once you factor in injury risk and playing time concerns. For example, I projected Dustin Pedroia for 142 games, so I multiplied all my projections for him by 0.92 (135 games is 92% of 155 games). Then I took my replacement level stat line and multiplied all those numbers by the remaining 0.08. Then you add those two numbers together to get the final stat line you’d expect to get from 142 games from Hamilton and 13 games from a replacement level player. Pedroia’s projection after accounting for playing time and adding in a replacement player for his games missed looks like this:

Name

G

PA

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

Dustin Pedroia

155

678

.288-.294

20-23

18-22

90-94

77-81

142

627

0.288

21

19

90

77

 

After I got my final stat line, I decided to come up with a formula to use the projections to do rankings. This system I came up with is admittedly crude, but I think it does a pretty decent job of ranking the players.

I plan on ranking about 200 hitters, so I took the 200 hitters with the most plate appearances last season and created tiers for each roto category. For example, 20 guys hit above .307 last year. The next 20 guys hit between .293 and .306. So if I projected a guy to hit .308, I assigned him 10 points for average. If I projected him to hit between .293 and .306, I assigned him nine points, etc, etc. Because I projected ranges, I used the midpoint to see which tier someone fit into. I projected Robinson Cano to hit between .302 and .308. The midpoint there was .305. That fell within the second tier so I assigned Cano nine points for average. Below are the tiers I used:

AVG HR SB R RBI
10 >.307 >31 >29 >93 >97
9 .293-.306 25-30 20-28 86-92 86-96
8 .286-.292 23-24 14-19 81-85 78-85
7 .275-.285 19-22 11.0-13.0 74-80 72-77
6 .270-.274 16-18 7.0-10.0 69-73 65-71
5 .260-.269 14-15 5.0-6.0 65-68 59-64
4 .250-.259 12.0-13.0 3.0-4.0 59-64 55-58
3 .241-.249 9.0-11.0 2 54-58 49-54
2 .229-.240 6.0-8.0 1 47-53 40-48
1 <.229 <6 0 <46 >39

 

 

 

 

 

 

After I assigned a player a point total for each individual category I added them all up and gave each player a score which I am calling their “Roto Rating.” I also gave a few bonus points for those players that I projected to produce truly elite numbers in a given category, but no one at second base qualified for bonus points. Below are the projections and Roto Ratings for my top 25 second basemen. Enjoy!

[am4show have=’p4;p7;p3;’ guest_error=’Front Office’ user_error=’Front Office’ ]

Name

G

PA

AVG

HR

SB

R

RBI

Bonus

Total

Robinson Cano

155

668

.302-.308

25-28

3.0-4

92-98

93-99

9

9

4

10

9

41

Dustin Pedroia

155

678

.288-.294

20-23

18-22

90-94

77-81

142

627

0.288

21

19

90

77

8

7

9

9

7

40

Aaron Hill

155

672

.268-.276

26-29

9.0-13

85-91

80-84

6

9

7

9

8

39

Ian Kinsler

155

717

.261-.267

23-26

19-23

100-104

70-74

142

657

0.263

24

20

99

71

5

8

9

10

6

38

Brandon Phillips

155

667

.274-.280

16-19

13-15

87-91

71-75

148

637

0.276

17

14

88

72

7

6

8

9

7

37

Ben Zobrist

155

670

.264-.272

18-21

11.0-13

85-89

84-88

5

7

7

9

9

37

Jason Kipnis

148

686

.270-.276

13-16

20-25

87-92

83-87

655

0.272

14

22

88

83

6

5

9

9

8

37

Rickie Weeks

155

668

.258-.266

22-25

13-16

86-94

66-72

142

612

0.262

23

14

88

68

5

8

8

9

6

36

Jose Altuve

155

664

.288-.294

8.0-10

31-34

84-88

56-60

8

3

10

9

4

34

Neil Walker

155

638

.278-.284

13-16

8.0-10

82-86

68-72

7

5

6

8

6

32

Chase Utley

155

680

.260-.268

23-26

11.0-14

80-84

74-78

105

460

0.262

21

11

76

69

5

7

7

7

6

32

Howie Kendrick

155

623

.281-.285

11.0-13

12.0-14

70-74

74-78

148

595

0.282

12

13

72

75

7

4

7

6

7

31

Danny Espinosa

155

633

.240-.246

17-20

17-20

60-64

78-82

142

580

0.244

18

18

62

78

3

6

8

5

8

30

Daniel Murphy

155

634

.285-.291

8.0-11

7.0-10

78-82

66-70

8

3

6

7

6

30

Dan Uggla

155

634

.234-.242

22-26

2.0-3

73-75

81-85

2

8

3

7

8

28

Dustin Ackley

155

677

.254-.262

12.0-14

12.0-14

85-89

55-59

4

4

7

9

4

28

Emilio Bonifacio

155

612

.259-.267

2.0-4

35-38

74-78

58-64

128

506

0.262

5

32

74

60

5

1

10

7

5

28

Marco Scutaro

155

667

.284-.290

7.0-9

6.0-8

77-81

58-64

142

611

0.285

8

7

78

60

7

2

6

7

5

27

Kelly Johnson

155

615

.228-.234

17-20

13-15

71-75

64-68

120

468

0.237

17

13

71

63

2

6

7

6

5

26

Omar Infante

155

612

.273-.277

9.0-11

9.0-11

62-66

52-58

142

560

0.274

10

10

64

55

6

3

6

5

4

24

Jemile Weeks

155

607

.258-.264

2.0-3

18-22

63-67

55-59

105

412

0.26

6

16

65

56

5

1

8

5

4

23

Logan Forsythe

155

654

.256-.264

9.0-11

12.0-14

76-80

50-55

98

414

0.259

11

12

72

53

4

3

7

6

3

23

Mark Ellis

155

653

.259-.265

6.0-8

5.0-7

83-87

46-52

120

506

0.261

8

7

80

50

5

2

6

7

3

23

Gordon Beckham

155

597

.236-.244

13-15

4.0-6

59-63

54-58

2

5

5

4

4

20

Darwin Barney

155

584

.262-.270

5.0-7

6.0-9

64-68

51-55

148

558

0.266

6

8

66

53

5

1

6

5

3

20

[/am4show]

 

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