Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by player rankings for Monday’s six-game slate of NHL contests around the industry. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of an old chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the sixth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Proj.’ is a projection from my own Marcel-like projections. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘Value’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score.

All shot attempt numbers discussed are at even strength, score-adjusted and weighted for recent performance unless otherwise noted.

And as always, make sure to check Twitter for any injury news, and check LeftWingLock for starting goalies and line combos.

Teams to Target

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Dallas home to Calgary

Tonight Dallas will finish a home stand in which they also faced Edmonton and Colorado. They’ve scored only four goals in the first two games of the home stand against teams that give up a ton of shot attempts and have average goaltending if you’re being nice. Their stud top line and stud defenseman have just three combined points in those two games. So yeah, not ideal. But the good news is that they out shot-attempted Colorado 106-32 on Saturday. Sure, Colorado had played the day before, but getting tripled up in shot attempts is never excusable.

Tonight Dallas will host Calgary who is also playing for the second day in a row. Only Colorado and Ottawa allow more shot attempts per 60 than Calgary, and those teams have better goaltending than the Flames. It would be nice if Dallas’ rough patch scared people off them tonight in this choice matchup, but that seems like very wishful thinking.

The Flames you want to avoid when picking Dallas skaters are their top pair defensemen, Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie. That pair tends to skate with Calgary’s top line. In home games, Dallas gets their top line away from the opposition’s top line, so they should avoid the bad matchup. It’s more likely that Jason Spezza and the second line will draw the tough assignment and thus should be avoided.

As for the top liners, Tyler Seguin has the best value and should be the guy you roster first. If you roster a second forward from that line, Jamie Benn is preferable to Patrick Sharp, but Sharp is a little more valuable, especially on FD where Benn’s price is tough. They skate with John Klingberg and Alex Goligoski at even strength and Klingberg on the power play. Klingberg is more affordable on FD and preferable of the two there. But on DK, Goligoksi is a better value, and he’ll still see work with the second power play unit.

Speaking of the second power play unit, the third line of Mattias Janmark, Antoine Roussel and Ales Hemsky is working as the forwards on the second power play unit right now. They’re also likely to avoid the tough individual matchup, so they’re worth a look if you need salary relief and/or want to be contrarian and fade Dallas’ top players. Theyr’e all better values on DK, though Janmark and Hemsky are good values on FD as well. Goligoski would make sense to pair with any of those forwards.

Montreal on the road in Columbus

Columbus is right there with Calgary, Colorado and Ottawa in terms of most shot attempts allowed per 60, and with Sergei Bobrovsky injured again, they probably have the worst goaltending situation in the league. As for Columbus players to avoid when picking opposing skaters, there are no lines or D pairs you must target or avoid. As a result, both of Montreal’s top six lines are in play tonight.

The top line of Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec and Brendan Gallagher is your best option if you can afford them. In this matchup, they’re all values on both sites, with the exception of Pacioretty on FD. Gallagher, on the other hand, is an insane value on FD. He’s a nice value on DK as well but almost a must-roster guy on FD. They skate at even strength with Alexei Emelin and Jeff Petry, with Petry also joining them on the top power play unit. Petry is a nice value on DK but not so much on FD.

As for the second line of Alex Galchenyuk, Dale Weise and David Desharnais, they’re also good values on both sites, with the exception of Desharnais on FD. Galchenyuk plays the Gallagher role on this line by being a great value on FD. They form the second power play unit and could be paired with P.K. Subban who chews up enough power play minutes to see some time there with the second unit as well.

Boston on the road in Philadelphia

Boston is the team you use tonight so that you don’t roster only Stars and Canadiens. Those two teams are so far and away the best plays tonight that it will be tough to forego players from those teams in almost every spot. But Boston has a fine enough matchup against Philly and is worth consideration as well.

The idea with Flyers is to avoid their top line who skates with their top D pair to form a formidable possession quintet. When at home (and as was the case when Boston visited Philly a week and a half ago) Philly uses their top line against the opposition’s second and their second line and against the opposition’s top line. That means Boston’s second line centered by David Krejci has a rough matchup and should probably be avoided. I say probably because they’re great values on FD, but that will have to be ignored because of the individual matchup.

The best option is the top line pair centered by Patrice Bergeron and  defenseman Torey Krug who joins Bergeron on the top power play unit. Thatpair combined for 13 shots on goal Saturday night, though Krug was responsible for more than half of that with eight shots himself. This pair is only an option on FD where Krug is a slight value and Bergeron is only slightly over-priced.

The other option is Boston’s third line that will also avoid the tough individual matchup. The wingers on that line are moderately productive and playing together on the second power play unit, so David Pastrnak and Matt Beleskey are good salary relief options, either as a mini-stack or individually. You could add to the salary relief by pairing one or both of them with Joe Morrow who joins them at even strength and on the second power play unit. Pastrnak is a great value on FD.

Player Rankings

DraftKings

Center

1. Tomas Plekanec – $5,200 – Montreal Canadiens
2. Tyler Seguin – $8,500 – Dallas Stars
3. Alex Galchenyuk – $4,300 – Montreal Canadiens
4. David Desharnais – $3,700 – Montreal Canadiens
5. Mattias Janmark – $3,300 – Dallas Stars
6. Ryan Spooner – $4,600 – Boston Bruins

Winger

1. Max Pacioretty – $7,200 – Montreal Canadiens
2. Brendan Gallagher – $6,200 – Montreal Canadiens
3. Jamie Benn – $8,600 – Dallas Stars
4. Patrick Sharp – $7,000 – Dallas Stars
5. Dale Weise – $3,600 – Montreal Canadiens
6. Matt Beleskey – $4,100 – Boston Bruins
7. David Pastrnak – $4,000 – Boston Bruins
8. Ales Hemsky – $3,600 – Dallas Stars
9. Antoine Roussel – $2,900 – Dallas Stars

Defensemen

1. P.K. Subban – $6,300 – Montreal Canadiens (check status before lock, did not skate this morning with an illness)
2. Alex Goligoski – $4,600 – Dallas Stars
3. Mark Giordano – $6,600 – Calgary Flames
4. Jeff Petry – $3,800 – Montreal Canadiens
5. John Klingberg – $6,000 – Dallas Stars

Fanduel

Center

1. Tyler Seguin – $7,700 – Dallas Stars
2. Tomas Plekanec – $5,500 – Montreal Canadiens
3. Patrice Bergeron – $7,100 – Boston Bruins
4. Ryan O’Reilly – $4,800 – Buffalo Sabres
5. Ryan Spooner – $5,300 – Boston Bruins
6. Mattias Janmark – $4,200 – Dallas Stars

Left Wing

1. Alex Galchenyuk – $4,000 – Montreal Canadiens
2. Max Pacioretty – $7,900 – Montreal Canadiens
3. Nino Niederreiter – $3,700 – Minnesota Wild
4. Justin Abdelkader – $4,500 – Detroit Red Wings
5. Jamie Benn – $9,300 – Dallas Stars
6. Loui Eriksson – $4,800 – Boston Bruins

Right Wing

1. Brendan Gallagher – $5,100 – Montreal Canadiens
2. Dale Weise – $3,900 – Montreal Canadiens
3. Patrick Sharp – $6,900 – Dallas Stars
4. David Pastrnak – $3,600 – Boston Bruins
5. Patrick Eaves – $3,000 – Dallas Stars
6. Dylan Larkin – $5,700 – Detroit Red Wings

Defensemen

1. P.K. Subban – $5,600 – Montreal Canadiens (check status before lock, did not skate this morning with an illness)
2. John Klingberg – $5,200 – Dallas Stars
3. Shayne Gostisbehere – $4,300 – Philadelphia Flyers
4. Jared Spurgeon – $3,200 – Minnesota Wild
5. Torey Krug – $5,500 – Boston Bruins
6. Alex Goligoski – $4,400 – Dallas Stars

Goalies

DraftKings

1. Antti Raanta* – $6,700 – New York Rangers
2. Antti Niemi – $7,000 – Dallas Stars
3. Michal Neuvirth – $7,300 – Philadelphia Flyers (GPP only)
4. Henrik Lundqvist – $8,000 – New York Rangers

Fanduel

1. Antti Raanta* – $7,800 – New York Rangers
2. Antti Niemi – $7,500 – Dallas Stars
3. Devan Dubnyk – $7,900 – Minnesota Wild
4. Henrik Lundqvist – $9,300 – New York Rangers

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are not expected to start tonight but haven’t been ruled out, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check LeftWingLock for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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