2015 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: DEAN & DELUCA Invitational

We have a new sponsor (DEAN & DELUCA) at one of the oldest stops (Colonial Country Club) on Tour. Let’s get to the picks!

Our friends at DraftKings continue to roll out some fantastic contests. And I’m here to help you win some dough.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests.

Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

This week we tee it up for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The Colonial Country Club course is a beautiful 7,204 yard par 70 course.  The course has been a Tour stop every year since 1946, held a U.S Open and a U.S. Women’s Open.  This is a classic course with narrow fairways. It is a shot maker’s dream.

The weather looks it will be a factor this week with the wind up Thursday and Friday with thunderstorms late Thursday and all day Friday.

As always, continue to check up until lineup lock on Thursday as there could be an AM/PM tee time advantage.

Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, twelve (12) par fours and two (3) par fives. With only two par fives, the scoring will come on par 4s this week. One of the par fives is 600 yards!  Three of the par threes are between 190 and 194 yards while the par fours run the gamut from 373 to 468 yards. Seven of the par fours are between 400 and 450 yards. Water is nearly absent on the front nine, but comes into play on many holes on the back nine.

Field

It’s a smaller field than normal with just 121 golfers in the DK system this week.

The full field can be found here.

Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

Colonial has hosted the tournament since 1946.

So, here is the top 20 for the last three years:

2016_top_20_last_3_dean_delucas

Statistical Review

Let’s take a look at the statistical angles in for this week’s tournament.

Par 4 Efficiency 400-450yards (P4E400-450):  As I noted above, we have 12 par 4s and seven of them are in this range.

Par 3 Efficiency 175-200 yards (P3E175-200):  Three of the four par 3s are between 175 and 200 yards.   

Driving Accuracy – It’s a tight course with narrow fairways so the golfers will need to keep it clean. Accuracy won’t be highly weighted this week, but it will be a factor.

I’m focused on 2016 stats now, but still check on 2015 stats to get a larger sample size on players.

And each week, we’ll look at Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) with SG:T2G being more important this week.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Jordan Spieth | $12,800 – You need to feel pretty confident that Spieth finishes in the top 5 or you have some gems hidden deep in the salary structure to roster him this week. He’s not playing up to his lofty standards even if he has six top 20s in his last seven events. His stroke to stroke consistency is just not there yet. That said, he has three top 15 finishes in three starts at Colonial.

Adam Scott | $11,300 – The Aussie is seventh in my statistical model which is good. He won here two years ago and finished T24 last year which is also good. He’s down to 71 st in SG:P which isn’t good as he’s sliding down the ranks. He has back to back top 20s on Tour and has seen every weekend since The Barclays.

Matt Kuchar | $11,000 – Kuchar is second in my statistical model and comes in off his second third place finish in a row on Tour. Need I say more? Well, he has three top 10s in his last five PGA Tour events.

Zach Johnson | $10,700 – Johnson hasn’t missed a cut at Colonial in 10 starts. He has two wins and five top 10s in his illustrious history at the DEAN & DELUCA. His profile doesn’t work (147th in P4E400450 and 39th in P3E175200). He doesn’t have a top 25 in his last four PGA events so you’re banking on the course history coming to the rescue this week.

Charley Hoffman | $10,400 – Hey, another course history monster as Hoffman is seven for seven in cuts made at Colonial with three top 20s in his last four trips. Hoffman finished T12 last week at the Byron Nelson. He’s 13th in P4E400450 and solid in the rest of his profile. He’s lacking in the two areas I’m not heavily weighting (135th in P3E175200 and 180th in DA).

Patrick Reed | $10,000 – Texan. His profile works (23rd in SG:T2G, 110th in SG:P, 56th in P4E400450, 75th in P3E175200 and 107th in DA). He’s made the cut both times he’s started at DEAN & DELUCA, but hasn’t seen the top 30 yet. He had a streak of five straight PGA cuts broken at THE PLAYERS.

Chris Kirk | $9,700 – Kirk is the defending champ and his profile shows he could contend again (67th in P4E400450, 87th in P3E175200, and 91st in DA). He has four top 20s here in his last five starts at Colonial. He withdrew at THE PLAYERS after making the top 25 in his prior three PGA Tour events.

Kevin Chappell | $9,600 – Chappell comes in hot (three top 10s in his last four Tour starts) and his course history on his side (four of five cuts made with back to back top 20s). The profile works as well (10th in SG:T2G, 163rd in SG:P, 77th in P4E400450, 152nd in P3E175200, and 88th in DA). He checks all the boxes this week.

Louis Oosthuizen | $9,500 – Oosty has teed it up at Colonia three times with a T19 in 2012, T38 in 2014 and  WD last year. He’s eight of for 11 in cuts made on Tour this year with seven top 15s. I’ll have him in some GPPs, but probably shy away from him in cash.

Kevin Na | $9,200 – Na is fourth in my statistical model this week which makes him look underpriced for the week. In his last start on Tour, he missed the cut on the number at THE PLAYERS breaking a streak of three made cuts.  The American has made eight of ten cuts with three top 10 finishes (including last year) at the DEAN & DELUCA. He’ll be in my cash games.

Charl Schwartzel | $9,000 – The South African’s profile fits (third place standing in P4E400450 and first place in P3E175200) though he’s inaccurate off the tee (169th). He’s only started here once and missed the cut (2013).

Brandt Snedeker | $8,900 – I’m torn on Snedeker this week as he’s out of form coming in, but hasn’t missed a cut in five starts at Colonial. His game fits the course (28th in P4E400450 and 33rd in P3E175200) so the concern is around his form.

Danny Lee | $8,800 – Lee has made four straight cuts on Tour and five of his last six with a T18 at the Byron Nelson in his last start.  He’s made the cut in all three attempts at Colonial with a T10 last year as his best finish. The profile isn’t the best as his only elite skills are 36th in SG:T2G and 24th in DA.

Bill Haas | $8,700 – Haas has an excellent profile (26th in SG:T2G, 118th in SG:P 36th in P4E400450, 117th in P3E175200, and 38th in 117) and is five for six in cuts made at the DEAN & DELUCA. He’s made three of his last four cuts on Tour with two top 25s. 

Jim Furyk | $8,600 – I said I wouldn’t consider Furyk until he made a cut. Well, he made a cut so now let’s talk. He’s 15 for 19 in cuts made here with seven top 10s though he’s recent history isn’t good (MC, T31, fourth, T31, T51, did not start last year).

Jimmy Walker | $8,500 – Walker has made the weekend three times in three starts at the DEAN & DELUCA over the last five years with one top 10 in 2014. His profile works for the course outside of his inaccuracy off the tee this year (38th in SG:T2G, 77th in SG:P, 15th in P4E400450, and 60th in P3E175200).

Jason Dufner | $8,400 – As we all know, Dufner can’t putt. However, he’s killer on par 4s from the distance we’re focused on this week (30th in P4E400450) so he requires some consideration this week. He has two second place finishes in his seven starts at Colonial and has made three cuts in a row on Tour.

Colt Knost | $8,300 – Knost has back to back top 5 finishes coming into the DEAN & DELUCA and has made six cuts in a row. He also finished T10 here last year and has a solid profile. He’s going to be popular in cash games which means he probably misses the cut.

Tony Finau | $8,200 – Finau is 69th in P4E400450, but nothing else in his profile fits Colonial. The current form is solid with three of his last four cuts made and five of his last seven including a T12 at the Byron Nelson last week. He debuted here last year and finished T19.

Ryan Palmer | $8,100 – I’ll probably a bit heavier on Palmer than most this week as he missed the cut on the number last week and missed the cut at Colonial last year. Prior to that missed cut at Colonial, he’d had a run of three straight top 15s. Prior to that missed cut on Tour last week, he’s made 12 straight cuts. The profile isn’t of a player who should succeed here, but he has in the past.

Kevin Kisner | $8,000 – I’m fading Kisner this week as his T5 here last year was in a run of excellent form that is the antithesis of his current form (T37, T69, MC, and MC). His profile fits the course (92nd in SG:T2G, 46th in SG:P, 38th in P4E400450,  177th in P3E175200, and 14th in DA) so perhaps I’m wrong to stay away, but I will.

Patton Kizzire | $7,900 – If this were last year’s Web.com Tour, he’d be at the top of our list as he was second in par 4 scoring. However, it’s not last year’s Web.com Tour and he’s 144th in P4E400450 this year. He makes his debut here this year and has made four straight cuts on Tour though his last one was a solo 76th at THE PLAYERS.

Marc Leishman | $7,800 – Just doesn’t look right currently. I’d stay away.

Ian Poulter | $7,700 – Poulter finished T5 last year and has three top 15s in four starts at Colonial. However, he’s shown just about nothing on Tour this year outside of his work at the Puerto Rico Open. Course history is your guide if you want to roster him.

Bryson DeChambeau | $7,700 – Keep rostering him. Go ahead. I don’t mind especially if I’m playing against you.

Smylie Kaufman | $7,600 – Kaufman makes his debut at Colonial this week and he’s currently 39th in P4E400450 which makes him an option this week. He’s missed back to back cuts on Tour coming into the week.

Roberto Castro | $7,600 – Castro has made three straight cuts and five of his last six on Tour He also has made two cuts in three starts at Colonial. A solid option this week.

Jonas Blixt | $7,500 – I’ll roster him again in some GPPs this week as he’s going to hit one of these weeks. The Swede missed the cut here last year, but had back to back top 11 finishes in his other two starts here in 2012 and 2013. 

Steve Stricker | $7,500 – The old man wanders back onto a course where he is seven for nine in cuts made at Colonial with a win in 2009.

Chez Reavie | $7,300 – Reavie is one of the higher rated players in my stats model this week as he’s 41st in P4E400450 and 16th in P3E175200 as well as 17th in DA. He was T18 last week at the Byron Nelson, but hasn’t played at Colonial since 2013. But, when he was playing here regularly he was excellent with two top 15s in three starts between 2011 and 2013.

Jerry Kelly | $7,200 – Kelly has made the cut in his last three DEAN & DELUCA Invitationals improving each time (T57, T38 and T10 last year). He’s OK in the scoring categories (79th in SG:T2G, 151st in SG:P, 90th in P4E400450, 83rd in P3E175200, and third in DA. He missed the cut last week at the Byron Nelson as he has now alternated made and missed cuts over his last four events.

Spencer Levin | $7,200 – Withdrew.

Anirban Lahiri | $7,100 – He’s made four cuts in a row on Tour and hasn’t seen the top 40 in any of those four events. He makes his debut here and I’m not sure there is a reason to roster him.

Fredrik Jacobson | $7,100 – The Swede is seven for 10 at the DEAN & DELUCA with a top 10 (T3 in 2014) and two other top 20s (2005 and 2006). He’s made six of his last seven cuts on Tour and has a solid profile (58th in P4E400450, 15th in P3E175200, and 18th in SG:P).

Bryce Molder | $7,100 – Molder has made five cuts in six trips to the DEAN & DELUCA with one top 10 (his 2010 debut) and no finish in the top 30 since. He’s just behind Chez Reavie in my statistical model.

Kyle Reifers | $7,000 – Reifers put up a T10 last week at the Byron Nelson. Is he in for more of the same this week? He certainly has a good shot as his profile fits (87th in SG:T2G, 117th in SG:P, 57th in P4E400450, 77th in P3E175200, and 58th in DA). He’s made three of four cuts here with each result getting worse as we go along (T13, T54 and solo 80th last year).

Daniel Summerhays | $7,000 – Summerhays comes in a bit under the radar for me thjis week, but he’s intriguing. He has made four cuts in a row and has three straight top 25s. He’s the made the cut each of the last three years at the DEAN & DELUCA Invitational, but doesn’t have a top 30. Summerhays is eighth in SG:P and 39th in P3E175200 while the rest of the profile doesn’t fit.

William McGirt | $7,000 – McGirt tops my statistical model this week. He’s made four straight cuts with two top 20 finishes on Tour coming into this week. He has also made four of five cuts at the DEAN & DELUCA with a top finish of T21 two years ago.

Steve Marino | $6,900 – Do you feel lucky? Hopefully you rostered Marino in a couple of spots last week. Well, we’re still in Texas and we’re still in a spot that Marino has done well in the past. He has two top 10s in five starts though he hasn’t played here since 2011.

Robert Streb | $6,900 – I feel like I write this every week, but if 2015 Robert Streb shows up one of these weeks he’ll win a big GPP for someone. He’s two for three in cuts made at Colonial with a T38 and T19 over the last two years. He missed the cut in his last PGA event (THE PLAYERS).

Sean O’Hair | $6,900 – O’Hair’s profile works (77th in SG:T2G, 64th in SG:P, and par 4 scoring 31st in P4E400450). He had some success at Colonial is his first few trips (two top 20s), but hasn’t enjoyed any success recently.

Ben Martin | $6,900 – Martin is two for two in cuts made here – both in the last two years, both in the top 25 – with a T10 last year. The problem is form or lack thereof. His last five PGA Tour events have resulted in T52, T45, T64, MC, and MC. He’s 82 nd in P4E400450 this year which is something, but not a lot, to go on.

Scott Piercy | $6,800 – Piercy is two for four in cuts made at Colonial with a top finish of T26 (2013). He’s 62nd in P4E400450 and 81st in SG:T2G, but nothing else fits. He was highly owned last week so he makes an intriguing pivot after missing the cut last week at the Byron Nelson. He’s made five straight cuts in a row before missing with all finishes in the top 30.

Keegan Bradley | $6,800 – Bradley debuts at the DEAN & DELUCA this week with a profile (34th in SG:T2G, 201st in SG:P, 90th in P4E400450, 22nd in P3E175200, and 51st in DA) to make some noise. He hasn’t finished in the top 25 on Tour since the Waste Management Open in early 2016.

John Huh | $6,800 – Huh has seen the weekend at Colonial three times in four starts and he’s always finished in the top 20. But, his current form is “stinky” – (T68, MC, T72, MC, MC, MC). The profile works (84th in SG:T2G, 164th in SG:P, 68th in P4E400450, 116th in P3E175200 and 24th in DA) so maybe his game comes out of the coma it’s in with the friendly course.

Lucas Glover | $6,800 – Glover has only made six of 11 cuts at the DEAN & DELUCA with one top 20 (T15 in 2008).He missed the cut last week after running off a streak of five straight made cuts on Tour. His profile fits the course (21st in SG:T2G, 179th in SG:P, 62nd in P4E400450, 165th in P3E175200, and 51st in DA).

George McNeill | $6,600 – McNeill has made five of seven cuts at Colonial and had his best finish at the course last year with a T5. However, he’s not playing well (T72, DQ, MC, MC in his last four PGA Tour events and doesn’t fit statistically at all outside of a 26th place standing in P3E175200.

Chris Stroud | $6,500 – Another course history versus current form player, Stroud had his run of three straight top 20 finishes between 2012 and 2014 at Colonial broken last year with a missed cut. He has withdrawn and been DQ’d from his last two PGA Tour events and the statistical model doesn’t like him.

David Hearn | $6,400 – Hearn may be as low as I’d go for cash games, but I’d feel comfortable with him on a cash game roster. His stats fit the course (75th in SG:T2G, 91st in SG:P, 43rd in P4E400450, 122nd in P3E175200, and 26th in DA) and has made four cuts in five starts at the DEAN & DELUCA with two top 25s.

David Toms | $6,300 – Toms has two top 5 finishes (including a win) and three missed cuts in his last five starts at Colonial. His form is trending poorly with his last four starts ending T14, T36, T71 and MC. His profile works (46th in SG:T2G, 76th in SG:P, 18th P4E400450, 129th in P3E175200, and 21st in DA).

Nick Taylor | $6,200 – Taylor finished T27 last year at the DEAN & DELUCA and is 43rd in P4E400450. He’s hit a bumpy patch on Tour with back to back missed cuts after making five straight cuts in a row.

Ben Crane | $6,200 – Crane is seven for 10 in cuts made at the DEAN & DELUCA with four top 10 finishes overall. He hasn’t had much recent success here, but he made the cut last week at the Byron Nelson as well as at the Valero Texas Open. His profile is good enough (139th in SG:T2G, 29th in SG:P, 70th in P4E400450, 55th in P3E175200, and 66th in DA) to perhaps see another top 30 finish.

Brian Stuard | $6,200 – Withdrew

Bronson Burgoon | $5,900 – A Texas event brings out Texas players and Burgoon is one of those Texas players. He is from Texas and played college golf at Texas A&M. He’s made the cut in five of his last six PGA events and makes for a reasonable risk even if his profile doesn’t fit.

Si Woo Kim | $5,900 – Kim is waaaaaaaaaaay underpriced this week (44 spots lower in salary than his odds to win imply) which means he’s worth a shot in a stars and scrubs lineup.

Vaughn Taylor | $5,800 – Taylor has only made three cuts in seven starts here with one top 20 in 2006. He has alternated missed and made cuts over his last five events on Tour, but is 31st place in P4E400450 which makes him a sleeper down here.

Steven Bowditch | $5,700 – MDF last week at the Byron Nelson, but at least he saw Saturday last week.

Kramer Hickok | $5,700 – Friend, roommate and former caddy for Jordan Spieth. Texas Longhorn. Withdrew from his last Web.com event with food poisoning. Missed the cut on the number at his first PGA Tour event – this year’s Shell Houston Open.

Keith Clearwater | $5,700 – Clearwater won two PGA Tour events in 1987; one of them being the Colonial National Invitational.  1987 was his rookie year on Tour. He hasn’t won since. But, with that win he gets to play at Colonial every year. This will be his 29th start here and he hasn’t made a cut at the event since 2001’s solo 66th place finish.

Franklin Corpening | $5,700 – Texan who won on the Adams Tour last week and didn’t even know it. He picked up a check for $26,500 for his troubles.

Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.

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