Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Deutsche Bank Championship
Week two of the FedEx Cup playoffs takes us to the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston.
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It’s the second week of FedEx playoffs and we head on up to Boston. Sort of. The Deutsche Bank Championship is held at TPC Boston in Norton, Massachusetts as it has been since 2003. The course is a par 71, 7,241-yard golf track with 58 bunkers where water comes into play on about half of the holes. We have bentgrass greens this week.
The Deutsche Bank Championship is held at TPC Boston in Norton, MA as it has been since 2003. It has three par 5s, 11 par 4s and four par 3s. The course is a par 71, 7,241-yard golf track with 58 bunkers where water comes into play on about half of the holes. The greens are seeded with bentgrass.
The cut is still top 70 and ties so more than 70% of the starters will see the weekend. This tournament runs starts on Friday and runs through Monday to take advantage of the Labor Day holiday.
The weather looks like it won’t be an issue this week as we may have some rain on Thursday, but no wind to contend with throughout the week. The temperatures should be pleasant all week long barely touching the 80s for a high.
As always, continue to check up until lineup lock on Thursday.
Scorecard breakdown: It’s a par 71 course so we have three par 5s, four par 3s and 11 par 4s.
We have 99 of the top 100 golfers in the FedEx Cup points standings. It’s an elite field.
The full field can be found here.
Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.
Past Tournament Results
TPC Boston has been the host since 2003, but the major re-design by Gil Hanse (with Brad Faxon consulting) in 2007 means we only care about results since then. Hanse also redesigned the Blue Monster Couse at Trump National Doral (the site of the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship) in 2013. So, perhaps we’ll take a gander at the leaderboard for the last three years.
Let’s take a look at the statistical angles in for this week’s tournament.
Par 5 Scoring Average (P5SA): There are three par 5s and that is where a lot of the scoring will come from this week. We will need to see par 5 scoring on our golfers’ resumes.
Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards (P4E450-500) – Six of the 11 par 4s on the course fall between 451 and 495 yards. So, we want golfers who can score (or at least make pars) regularly on par 4s of this distance.
Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green (SG:APP) – SG:APP is a part of SG:T2G so there is a bit of double counting going on here. That said, we’re going to see nearly 75% of all shots from between 150 and 200 yards this week. For more on how SG:APP, check out this primer on all the Strokes Gained stats.
Scoring Average (SA) – We’ll also look at overall scoring average as we’ll need players who can score. The winner of the tourney will probably be between 15 and 20-under for the week.
Par 3 Efficiency 200-225 yards (P3E200-225) – We will use this to break ties this week as we have four par 3s on the course and they range from 187 to 231 yards. It’s not exact, but it’s close enough for me.
I’m focused on 2016 stats of course, but will certainly refer back to 2015 if needed.
And of course, we examine Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) with more weight on SG:T2G again this week.
DraftKings Expert Picks
Jason Day | $12,500 – Yes, Day putted lights out last week which saved him from a wayward driver. No, Day won’t putt like that again this week. But, will he also struggle off the tee again? Perhaps not. He has back to back top 5 five finishes and three in his last five events. He’s missed just one cut in 2016. Day is second in my stats rankings (11th in SG:T2G, 40th in SG:APP, 1st in SG:P, 3rd in P5SA, 15th in P4E450-500, 2nd in SA, and 1st in P3E200-225). The Aussie has a fine record here with three straight top 15 finishes and five in his last six DBC starts. He’s the favorite to win and deservedly so.
Dustin Johnson | $12,100 – Johnson is second in my stats model for the week (3rd in SG:T2G, 26th in SG:APP, 44th in SG:P, 8th in P5SA, 2nd in P4E450-500, 3rd in SA, and 16th in P3E200-225). He finished T18 last week at The Barclays and has two T4s in six starts at the DBC. He had a run of five top 5 finishes in his six starts prior the PGA Championship. I think he might get ignored a bit here as folks will pay up for Day or just drop down to lower priced options.
Jordan Spieth | $11,600 – Spieth missed the cut here last year after posting a T4 and T29 in his first two starts. That missed cut is a red flag for me. Let’s dig a bit further. His profile checks out as he iis fourth in the stats model for the week (14th in SG:T2G, 74th in SG:APP, 5th in SG:P, 8th in P5SA, 25th in P4E450-500, 4th in SA, and 7th in P3E200-225). His current form may not be 2015 Jordan Spieth, but it’s very good as he finished T10 last week at The Barclays which was his fourth top 15 in his last eight events.
Rory McIlroy | $11,100 – The Northern Irishman trotted out a new putter last week and the results were…poor to say the least. However, he still stands 12th in my stats model this week (2nd in SG:T2G, 58th in SG:APP, 130th in SG:P, 2nd in P5SA, 5th in P4E450-500, 8th in SA, and 73th in P3E200-225). Rory’s had some success here with two top fives including his 2012 victory. He finished T31 last week at The Barclays, but he’s only a few weeks removed from a run of four top five finishes in five events.
Henrik Stenson | $10,700 – Nope. Look, he’ll probably be fine with a small tear in his meniscus. And he’ll probably be low-owned. So, if that fits your risk profile go for it. He won here in 2013 and finished second last year. We know his ownership levels will be in the basement.
Adam Scott | $10,400 – If Day is my pick to win, then Scott is a close second. He’s seventh in my model (1st in SG:T2G, 1st in SG:APP, 140th in SG:P, 12th in P5SA, 15th in P4E450-500, 5th in SA, and 27th in P3E200-225). He has five top 10s in 10 trips including a win in his 2003 debut. He’s had three of those top 10s in his six trips since the redesign. He also seems to be heating up as he put up a T4 at The Barclays which was his second top 10 in four events.
Patrick Reed | $10,200 – Reed’s current form is spectacular as he’s finished in the top 25 in his last seven events, top 15s in six of those seven. Oh yeah, he also won last week. He finished T4 here last year after struggling in his first two trips to TPC Boston. The stats don’t rate him as elite (22th in SG:T2G, 69th in SG:APP, 58th in SG:P, 12th in P5SA, 107th in P4E450-500, 20th in SA, and 37th in P3E200-225), but this is Patrick Reed. Reed don’t need stats.
Rickie Fowler | $10,000 – That was an exciting three rounds from Rickie wasn’t it? So, yes he faltered on Sunday, but that T7 last week was his first top 10 in any event since the Wells Fargo Championship in early May. The defending champ is overall in my stats model for the week (7th in SG:T2G, 44th in SG:APP, 46th in SG:P, 16th in P5SA, 12th in P4E450-500 ,11th in SA, and 116th in P3E200-225). Oh, that win was his only top 20 at the DBC in six starts. There still seems to be a lot of risk in Fowler at the moment.
Justin Rose | $9,700 – I’m on fade mode with Rose this week based on his curiously poor history here. He’s played the event six times, missed the cut in four of them (including last year) and finished in the top 50 just once (2013’s T16). He’s 23rd in my stats model for the week (8th in SG:T2G, 35th in SG:APP, 105th in SG:P, 16th in P5SA, 129th in P4E450-500, 12th in SA, and 35th in P3E200-225).
Sergio Garcia | $9,500 – Fade one Euro, but go a bit heavier on another to balance things out. Sergio’s last result here was in 2013 when he finished T4. He’s not missed the cut in five overall trips here and has three top 20s.
The Spaniard hasn’t played anywhere since Rio where he finished T8. He’d been playing inspired golf prior to the Olympics with four top 5s in his five events leading up to Rio. He is eighth in the field in my stats model with only his putter to be concerned about (12th in SG:T2G, 15th in SG:APP, 114th in SG:P, 39th in P5SA, 4th in P4E450-500, 6th in SA, and 40th in P3E200-225).
Phil Mickelson | $9,300 – Lotsa folks are going to be on Lefty and for good reason. He appears atop my stats model for the week (16th in SG:T2G, 7th in SG:APP, 2nd in SG:P, 12th in P5SA, 37th in P4E450-500, 1st in SA, and 8th in P3E200-225). He’s finished outside of the top 40 in his last three starts at TPC Boston. He finished T13 last week for his third top 15 in his last five events. Mickelson’s last nine events encapsulate the agony and joy of owning Phil each week – MC, T20, T2, MC, T27, T13, second, T33 and T13 in his last nine events.
Louis Oosthuizen | $9,100 – Oosty will be ignored this week. It’s possible he has the lowest ownership percentage of the golfers at $9,000 and above. He’s played here twice and finished second in 2012 and T12 last year. The South African has made three straight cuts in a row with each finish in the top 25 including a T18 at The Barclays last week. He’s not a great fit statistically, but that hasn’t mattered in the past (24th in SG:T2G, 41th in SG:APP, 131th in SG:P, 106th in P5SA, 32th in P4E450-500 ,33th in SA, and 28th in P3E200-225).
Emiliano Grillo | $9,000 – It doesn’t seem anything can cool Grillo down at the moment. He has three straight top 15 finishes and seven in his last nine starts. He’s not a statistical darling (54th in SG:T2G, 67th in SG:APP, 106th in SG:P, 52th in P5SA, 102th in P4E450-500, 55th in SA, and 64th in P3E200-225), but it hasn’t mattered for Grillo recently. Ride the wave of current form with Grillo!
Bubba Watson | $8,900 – I think Watson may fall into a low ownership crevice this week as the meat in a Grillo-Furyk sandwich. He’s made seven of eight cuts at the DBC, but has only one top 25. The American bomber stand he’s 17th in my stats model for the week (6th in SG:T2G, 24th in SG:APP, 139th in SG:P, 4th in P5SA, 29th in P4E450-500, 23th in SA, and 155th in P3E200-225). He finished T13 last week and fired a 66 on Sunday. The call on Watson is I think he’ll be low-owned with elite upside if he can put his profile to work.
Jim Furyk | $8,800 – I hate saying a guy is a safe play as he’ll invariably miss the cut or you may think I won’t own him because of high ownership levels. Well, I think Furyk is safe this week, but he’s an excellent play. He’s never missed a cut here and has four top 10s since the redesign including last year’s T4. The veteran is 16th in my model this week (32nd in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:APP, 75th in SG:P, 121th in P5SA, 24th in P4E450-500, 18th in SA, and 88th in P3E200-225). He’s made nine cuts in a row on Tour with top 10 in two of his last three.
Brooks Koepka | $8,700 – The young American bomber is 18th in my model this week (34th in SG:T2G, 71th in SG:APP, 19th in SG:P, 39th in P5SA, 87th in P4E450-500, 6th in SA, and 135th in P3E200-225). He got waylaid by this course last year in his debut finishing near the bottom of the field last year. And after back to back top 10s, he struggled at The Barclays last week with a T70 finish. I like him to bounce back this week.
Hideki Matsuyama | $8,600 – Matsuyama missed the cut in four of his last six events. The two made cuts? A T4 at the PGA and T3 at the Wyndham. GPP only for me with Hideki. He has a T57 and T25 in his two trips to the DBC. He is 22nd in my model this week (4th in SG:T2G, 2th in SG:APP, 150th in SG:P, 20th in P5SA, 97th in P4E450-500, 15th in SA, and 36th in P3E200-225). I won’t be on him much at all this week.
Billy Horschel | $8,500 – Is this a hot streak? Sure looks like it, eh? He backed up his T5 at the Wyndham with a T13 last week at The Barclays. He’s made the cut in each of his three trips here finishing T70, T2 and 72nd. He followed up that T2 with back to back wins to win the FedEx Cup. He’s 42nd in my stats model for the DBC (23th in SG:T2G, 28th in SG:APP, 77th in SG:P, 96th in P5SA, 123th in P4E450-500, 37th in SA, and 156th in P3E200-225). I’ll be riding the hot streak until it dies.
Matt Kuchar | $8,400 – Kuch is lumped between Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott in my stats model (1th in SG:T2G, 1th in SG:APP, 140th in SG:P, 12th in P5SA, 15th in P4E450-500 ,5th in SA, and 27th in P3E200-225), but his price doesn’t say he should be. The Georgia Tech product is 10 for 12 in cuts made at the DBC and has two top 10 finishes (last year and in 2013). Unlike Fowler, he bounced back on Sunday with a 69 after firing three over par rounds in the first three days. It’s been an interesting couple of months for Kuchar as he missed his first cut since the Arnold Palmer (PGA) and won a bronze in Rio (on another Hanse course). His form has been a bit lumpy so proceed with caution, but there is value to taken.
Charl Schwartzel | $8,300 – Schwartzel is 20th in my stats model (5th in SG:T2G, 4th in SG:APP, 135th in SG:P, 85th in P5SA, 82th in P4E450-500, 10th in SA, and 3rd in P3E200-225). He’s made the cut in each of his four starts at the DBC with two top 25s. He’s made eight cuts in a row in stroke play events, but he’s trending in the wrong direction. His last four results are T7, T18, T42 and T53 last week at The Barclays. I think he’ll be low-owned and should be an attractive GPP play and I’d feel OK with him in cash.
Branden Grace | $8,200 – Grace debuts here this week off back to back missed cuts. The stats don’t particularly like him as he’s just outside the top 40 (15th in SG:T2G, 11th in SG:APP, 111th in SG:P, 145th in P5SA, 141th in P4E450-500, 16th in SA, and 73th in P3E200-225). I’m going to be off the South African this week as I’m a bit concerned with his current form.
Daniel Berger | $8,100 – The profile fits (39th in SG:T2G, 29th in SG:APP, 47th in SG:P, 62th in P5SA, 63th in P4E450-500, 31th in SA, and 179th in P3E200-225) and he debuted with a T12 here last year. His last three events have seen Berger finish T73 at the PGA, T5 at the Travelers and T70 at The Barclays in his last three PGA events. There could be something here.
Zach Johnson | $8,000 – Johnson seems like another safe option this week. He’s finished between T33 and T48 in his last four events after a run of four straight top 20 finishes. The two-time major winner is 15th in my stats model this week (73th in SG:T2G, 56th in SG:APP, 29th in SG:P, 44th in P5SA, 18th in P4E450-500, 21th in SA, and 104th in P3E200-225). He hasn’t finished in the top 15 here in seven tries, but he’s only finished outside the top 30 once.
Ryan Moore | $7,900 – Moore has made six of eight cuts at TPC Boston since the redesign. However, those six cuts have resulted in four finishes outside the top 65 (yes, 65) and back to back T10s (2011 and 2012). But……Moore has made eight cuts in a row on Tour with three top 20 in his last four events including a win at the John Deere. His profile is good enough as he’s 30th in my model (49th in SG:T2G, 43th in SG:APP, 34th in SG:P, 131th in P5SA, 48th in P4E450-500, 29th in SA, and 187th in P3E200-225).
Paul Casey | $7,900 – Casey is 24th in my model for the week though his par 5 scoring could be a concern (19th in SG:T2G, 32th in SG:APP, 86th in SG:P, 121th in P5SA, 63th in P4E450-500, 28th in SA, and 65th in P3E200-225). He has three trips to the DBC with a missed cut, T25 and withdrawal (last year) in those three starts. The Englishman has made three cuts in a row with two top 20s in that mini-run.
Sean O’Hair | $7,800 – O’Hair is four for six in cuts made here since the redesign, but two of those four weekends resulted in to 10s including last year’s T4. He had an impressive T2 last week at The Barclays after a T22 at the Wyndham. The stats don’t love him as he’s outside the top 60 (81th in SG:T2G, 146th in SG:APP, 50th in SG:P, 62th in P5SA, 48th in P4E450-500, 49th in SA, and 92th in P3E200-225), but the scoring acumen is there and his form is choice.
Jason Dufner | $7,800 – Duf just keeps making cuts with 10 straight cuts made and three T22s in his last four events. He rates just behind Branden Grace in the stats model (18th in SG:T2G, 19th in SG:APP, 174th in SG:P, 39th in P5SA, 96th in P4E450-500, 17th in SA, and 125th in P3E200-225). He’s six of six at the DBC with four top 20s. He’s yet another solid option between $7,000 and $8,000 this week.
Brandt Snedeker | $7,700 – Snedeker is seven for eight in cuts made here with his only miss two years ago. He had a run of three straight top 10s from 2010 through 2012. His profile is good enough for this week as he’s 32nd with a solid scoring profile (46th in SG:T2G, 81th in SG:APP, 35th in SG:P, 145th in P5SA, 40th in P4E450-500, 19th in SA, and 106th in P3E200-225).
Gary Woodland | $7,700 – Woodland is 13th in the field (13th in SG:T2G, 21th in SG:APP, 117th in SG:P, 5th in P5SA, 46th in P4E450-500, 22th in SA, and 77th in P3E200-225) and that means he could offer us a lot of value. He finished T4 last week at The Barclays and has two top 25s at the DBC (in five trips) including his best finish in his T12 last year.
Kevin Na | $7,600 – So, Na was supposed to miss this week due to the birth of his child, but his wife gave birth earlier this week so he’ll be here. He’s 14th in terms of stats this week (32th in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:APP, 75th in SG:P, 121th in P5SA, 24th in P4E450-500, 18th in SA, and 88th in P3E200-225). However, he’s done nothing at the DBC and I’m going to pass.
Russell Knox | $7,500 – Knox was snubbed from the Ryder Cup this year, so perhaps there’s a narrative to follow here. The Scot finished T26 and T12 in the last two years at the DBC. He’s also playing well with seven cuts in a row with four top 10s including a win at the Travelers. His profile doesn’t fit, but there are a lot of other things to like (44th in SG:T2G, 47th in SG:APP, 126th in SG:P, 106th in P5SA, 139th in P4E450-500, 27th in SA, and 78th in P3E200-225).
Johnson Wagner | $7,500 – Not this week my friend. Too expensive for me. He’s made the cut in all four starts here with two top 25s in his first two starts. Great form with three straight cuts made and all in the top 25.
Jhonattan Vegas | $7,400 – You know I dig Vegas just about every week as he always seems to hit the sweet spot in terms of scoring. He’s made six straight cuts on Tour and has four straight top 25 finishes in stroke play events. His only start at the DBC was a T42 in 2011. Vegas is 26th in my model (51th in SG:T2G, 84th in SG:APP, 70th in SG:P, 20th in P5SA, 9th in P4E450-500, 85th in SA, and 48th in P3E200-225).
Charley Hoffman | $7,300 – Hoffman checks in off back to back top 25s on Tour. The Californian checks in just after Jhonattan Vegas in my model (28th in SG:T2G, 45th in SG:APP, 95th in SG:P, 96th in P5SA, 46th in P4E450-500, 38th in SA, and 31th in P3E200-225). He’s made seven of eight cuts here since the redesign with a win in 2010 and a third place finish last year.
John Senden | $7,200 – Rostering Senden is about course history as he’s made seven cuts in seven starts since the redesign at TPC Boston with four top 15s and no finish worse than last year’s T33. His form is also solid as he’s made four of his last five cuts with a T31 in his last start at The Barclays. His profile places him 36th in the model this week (91th in SG:T2G, 76th in SG:APP, 31th in SG:P, 75th in P5SA, 51th in P4E450-500, 59th in SA, and 29th in P3E200-225).
Kevin Chappell | $7,100 – Chappell has made the cut in each of the last three years at the DBC with a top finish of T12 last year – his second top 25. He snapped a streak of two missed cuts with a T31 last week at the Barclays. The American is 36 th in my stats model for the week (9th in SG:T2G, 5th in SG:APP, 179th in SG:P, 52th in P5SA, 57th in P4E450-500, 46th in SA, and 98th in P3E200-225).
Steve Stricker | $7,000 – The old man has played well this year on his limited schedule. He has five top 15s in six starts at the DBC including a win in 2009 and a second place finish in 2013. Nice! He’s 40th in my model as he’s 117th in SG:T2G, 125th in SG:APP, 4th in SG:P, 52th in P5SA, 20th in P4E450-500, 13th in SA, and 106th in P3E200-225. He’s made 10 of his last 11 cuts. A familiar course will look help him extend his streak of success here.
Jimmy Walker | $7,000 – This sure seems cheap for Walker. You only need two points to make a line and the last two points we have on Walker are missed cuts. Is this the start of a trend? Well, it sure looks like it is if history is any guide. He sandwiched a T9 two years ago here around missed cuts and has missed the cut in three of his last six trips here. That T9 was his only finish in the top 35 in those six starts at the DBC. He’s ninth in my stats model (37th in SG:T2G, 17th in SG:APP, 47th in SG:P, 16th in P5SA, 37th in P4E450-500 ,36th in SA, and 179th in P3E200-225), but current form and course history make it tough to take the plunge with Jimmy.
Roberto Castro | $6,900 – Castro has some stats (31th in SG:T2G, 34th in SG:APP, 169th in SG:P, 29th in P5SA, 29th in P4E450-500, 62th in SA, and 68th in P3E200-225) and course history (T51 in 2012 and T9 in 2013) on his side this week. He missed the cut last week after making 10 straight cuts on Tour. Interesting.
William McGirt | $6,800 – Ok, so perhaps I’m a bit obsessed with McGirt from week to week. Yet again he grades out solidly on stats sitting in 11th place (38th in SG:T2G, 62th in SG:APP, 25th in SG:P, 85th in P5SA, 35th in P4E450-500, 26th in SA, and 14th in P3E200-225). He’s made the weekend here in four of his five trips and a best finish of T12 last year. He’s only made four of his last seven cuts on Tour so the form isn’t quite there.
Ryan Palmer | $6,700 – Palmer is just behind Steve Stricker in my model (36th in SG:T2G, 80th in SG:APP, 116th in SG:P, 5th in P5SA, 79th in P4E450-500, 24th in SA, and 76th in P3E200-225), but doesn’t have quite the same stellar record at TPC Boston. He’s made five of seven cuts and has two top 20s including a T16 two years ago.
Bill Haas | $6,700 – Haas isn’t a favorite for the stats crowd this week (20th in SG:T2G, 36th in SG:APP, 157th in SG:P, 131th in P5SA, 97th in P4E450-500, 25th in SA, and 12th in P3E200-225). However, he has made seven of eight cuts since the redesign with three top 25s including a top finish of T9 two years ago. Moreover, he missed the cut last week after seeing five weekends in a row.
Brendan Steele | $6,600 – Steele’s first two starts at TPC Boston had him T10 and T20. He finished T50 and T44 the last two years so he hasn’t been able to keep that mojo going. He ranks 33rd in my stats model for the week (33th in SG:T2G, 45th in SG:APP, 137th in SG:P, 8th in P5SA, 37th in P4E450-500, 47th in SA, and 142th in P3E200-225). If you throw out the back to back missed cuts at majors (British Open and PGA Championship), Steele has made nine cuts in a row with six top 20s with a T17 and T22 in his last two events.
Harris English | $6,600 – English is 25th in the stats-only look at the week (107th in SG:T2G, 77th in SG:APP, 9th in SG:P, 62th in P5SA, 41th in P4E450-500, 35th in SA, and 16th in P3E200-225). He’s made three of four cuts at the DBC with his T12 last year his best finish. Harris has made eight cuts in a row, but hasn’t had a top 25 in his last seven events.
Tony Finau | $6,500 – Finau’s profile doesn’t fit the course (74th in SG:T2G, 133th in SG:APP, 113th in SG:P, 20th in P5SA, 69th in P4E450-500, 56th in SA, and 150th in P3E200-225), but I have better feelings about him. He missed the cut here in his debut last year, but finished 12th last week at The Barclays after a T25 at the Travelers.
Chris Kirk | $6,400 – Kirk’s course history is tough to ignore even if his stats don’t agree with the course (47th in SG:T2G, 42th in SG:APP, 103th in SG:P, 106th in P5SA, 57th in P4E450-500, 94th in SA, and 99th in P3E200-225). He’s made five cuts in five starts with a win in 2014 and every finish in the top 35. He’s alternated missed and made cuts over his last five events including his miss last week at The Barclays.
Webb Simpson | $6,100 – Simpson has made five cuts in a row at the DBC with a win in 2011 and three total top 20s. He’s made six cuts in a row on Tour and finished T48 at The Barclays. Simpson is 19th in my model and that makes him look like an excellent value this week (10th in SG:T2G, 6th in SG:APP, 176th in SG:P, 106th in P5SA, 1st in P4E450-500, 30th in SA, and 99th in P3E200-225).
Luke Donald | $6,100 – The Englishman sits 35th in my model though his par 5 work is a bit disconcerting (64th in SG:T2G, 16th in SG:APP, 78th in SG:P, 145th in P5SA, 22th in P4E450-500, 73th in SA, and 96th in P3E200-225).
Daniel Summerhays | $6,000 – Summerhays is worth the risk in some GPPs even if he’s missed the cut in his last two events. The intrigue comes from his course history as he’s made the cuts in all four starts and finished T9 last year and T22 in 2013. The stats don’t like him (122th in SG:T2G, 129th in SG:APP, 10th in SG:P, 27th in P5SA, 107th in P4E450-500, 43th in SA, and 103th in P3E200-225).
Alex Cejka | $6,000 – Cejka is like Henrik Stenson but much cheaper. Cejka withdrew last week with a pinched nerve in his neck. He rates tenth in my stats model (45th in SG:T2G, 10th in SG:APP, 98th in SG:P, 12th in P5SA, 11th in P4E450-500, 60th in SA, and 16th in P3E200-225). His only start on the Hanse-redesigned course ended with a T39 last year. He’s finished in the top 25 in his last three events worldwide including a T21 at the Olympics in his last start.
Patton Kizzire | $5,900 – Kizzire rates as the 28th best player in my stats model for the week (113th in SG:T2G, 31th in SG:APP, 18th in SG:P, 62th in P5SA, 65th in P4E450-500, 75th in SA, and 6th in P3E200-225) and that gets me interested in him below $6,000. Now, the bad news. His current form is awful as he hasn’t finished in the top 30 since this T24 at the Wells Fargo. He missed the cut last week, but he’d made six cuts in a row with no finish better than T49.
John Huh | $5,700 – Huh made three cuts in a row at the DBC before missing the event last year. He’s also made three cuts in a row on Tour. The stats don’t like him (88th in SG:T2G, 95th in SG:APP, 146th in SG:P, 85th in P5SA, 107th in P4E450-500, 113th in SA, and 8th in P3E200-225)., but he has course history and current form on his side.
Charles Howell | $5,700 – We’ll see you soon Chucky when we head back to California. He’s not on the radar this week. He’s missed one cut in eight tries at the DBC, but never finished inside the top 30.
Vijay Singh | $5,600 – Old man value alert! Singh won here back in 2008 and has only missed one cut in six starts here since the redesign. The Flyin’ Fijian has made three of his last four cuts on Tour though no finish his been inside the top 50.
Hudson Swafford | $5,500 – Swafford has made 11 straight cuts Swafford is 39th in my rankings based on his profile (106th in SG:T2G, 65th in SG:APP, 49th in SG:P, 29th in P5SA, 27th in P4E450-500, 79th in SA, and 99th in P3E200-225). He finished T33 last year in his debut at the DBC and I think he improves on that this year. There is a lot of value in Swafford this week.
Sung Kang | $5,500 – What is you started a roster with Swafford and Kang? What could you do? You could do a lot and it might be an interesting way to structure a lineup. The stats don’t like Kang on his debut here (138th in SG:T2G, 144th in SG:APP, 53th in SG:P, 75th in P5SA, 43th in P4E450-500, 76th in SA, and 120th in P3E200-225). However, his scoring stats are solid and his in great form. He’s made four cuts in a row and has two top 20s in those four including a T18 last week.
Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.
Roster size: 6 Golfers
Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:
- Per Hole Scoring
- Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
- Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
- Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
- Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
- Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
- Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
- Tournament Finish Scoring
- 1st: 30 PTs
- 2nd: 20 PTs
- 3rd: 18 PTs
- 4th: 16 PTs
- 5th: 14 PTs
- 6th: 12 PTs
- 7th: 10 PTs
- 8th: 9 PTs
- 9th: 8 PTs
- 10th: 7 PTs
- 11th–15th: 6 PTs
- 16th–20th: 5 PTs
- 21st–25th: 4 PTs
- 26th–30th: 3 PTs
- 31st–40th: 2 PTs
- 41st-50th: 1 PTs
- Streaks and Bonuses
- Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
- Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
- All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
- Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs
Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.
Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.
Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.