2015 Fantasy GolfChris Garosi

Daily Fantasy Golf Strategy: Wells Fargo Championship

Rain, rain go away so we can have a Sunday finish at the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte, North Carolina. It’s a much harder course with a much better field so let’s see what we can do!

Our friends at DraftKings continue to roll out some fantastic contests. And I’m here to help you win some dough.

It’s a great week to check out DraftKings as they have some top notch contests.

Come on over and take a look.

Tour Stop

This week we tee it up for the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. The course at Quail Hollow is a 7,557 par 72 course with the final three holes comprising “The Green Mile” one of the toughest finishing stretches on the Tour. It’s another tough course this week after the challenges of TPC Sawgrass. The course will undergo some renovations after the tourney ends to get ready for the 2017 PGA Championship.

The weather looks will be much calmer than last week, but we’ll still see some wind on Friday afternoon meaning there could be a tee time advantage. There may be some rain on Thursday, but it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

As always, continue to check up until lineup lock on Thursday.

Scorecard breakdown: Four (4) par threes, ten (10) par fours and four (4) par fives making up the par-72.

Field

It’s one of the better fields we’ll see outside of the majors.

The full field can be found here.

Also, thanks to GolfOdds.com for the odds this week. If you’d like to see a second set of odds, check out the Betting Zone’s odds here – just click on this week’s tournament on the left hand pane.

Past Tournament Results

The Wells Fargo has been held here every year since 2003.

So, here is the top 20 for the last three years:

2016_last_3_wells_fargo_top20

Statistical Review

Let’s take a look at the statistical angles in for this week’s tournament.

We are going to use some more scoring efficiency stats again this year as we have some more clustering of yardages.

There are five par 4 holes on the course between 452 and 495 yards.
Three of the four par 5s are between 570 and 598 yards.
Three of the par 3s are greater than 200 yards.

So, with so many holes that are similar in length, I’ll look at a variety of scoring efficiency stats:

Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards (P4SE450-500)
Par 5 Efficiency 550-600 yards (P5SE550-600)
Efficiency from the Fairway >200 yards (Eff200Y) –
Thanks to our friends at Fantasy Golf Metrics, we know that a shade over 33% of the shots will come from this distance.

Driving Distance (DD): Length is important (though not a deal breaker) and I’ll use that as my tiebreaker this week.

I’m focused on 2016 stats now, but still check on 2015 stats to get a larger sample size on players.

And each week, we’ll look at Strokes Gained: Putting (SG:P) and Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) with SG:T2G being more important this week. In fact, I’m not really worried about putting this week as the greens are going to be hard for everyone.

DraftKings Expert Picks

Rory McIlroy | $12,800 – The defending champ has made five of six cuts here including a second win at the event. If he makes the cut, he ends up in the top 10. Rory has three top 10s in his last four events and is the third best profile in my statistical model.

Rickie Fowler | $10,900 – Fowler is numero uno in my statistical review this week. He won here in 2012, but has struggled since with a T73 and T38. He missed the cut at the Masters, but did finish with a T20 last week. The profile fits even if his current form may not be elite.

Adam Scott | $10,600 – We round out the top three in my statistical model this week with number two Adam Scott. This is the second time that Scott has teed it up here in the last six years and he missed the cut last year. His current form (T12, T28, T42) is trending in the wrong direction after a run of T2, WIN, WIN, and T12.

Dustin Johnson | $10,400 – Withdrew and seems not to care.

Henrik Stenson | $10,200 – The Swede’s best finish at Quail Hollow is a T58, but he has the statistical profile of a player who CAN succeed here even if he’s short off the tee.  He finished T24 at the Masters in his last event. Outside of a pedestrian, 95th in Eff200Y, Stenson should succeed here, but it’s a risk at this high a salary for a player who has never shown it here previously.

Justin Rose | $10,000 – Rose missed the cut last week so it’s time to roster him again as I imagine many will be off him. He is 89th in P4SE450-500, seventh in P5SE550-600, and 34th in Eff200Y which means he’s a good bet to improve on his five top 20 finishes on Tour this year in eight starts. He’s only played here twice in the last five years (T28 in 2011, fifth in 2014).

Patrick Reed | $9,700 – Reed’s 2016 profile does not work for Quail Hollow. He’s 13th in SG:T2G, but he’s 184th in P4SE450-500, 95th in P5SE550-600 and 124th inEff200Y. No es bueno!  Reed has been to Quail Hollow thrice, made the cut thrice and finished inside the top 35 nonce! He has four top 10 finishes in his last six PGA events.

Phil Mickelson | $9,500 – Lefty has eight top 10s in 12 starts at the Wells Fargo Championship. His profile fits in every aspect except his 96th place standing in P4SE450-500. He’s a bit out of form as he’s missed back to back cuts coming in.

Hideki Matsuyama | $9,300 – Matsuyama leads the Tour in the P5SE550-600 stat we like this week. He doesn’t’ have any other standout stats, but has four top 10s in 2016. He has one top 20 in two Quail Hollow starts.  

J.B. Holmes | $9,100 – The American bomber is one of my favorites this week. He hasn’t missed a cut in 2016 and has six top 15s. Moreover, the profile looks appealing (17th in SG:T2G, 59th in P4SE450-500, 79th in P5SE550-600, and 38th in Eff200Y) for this former Wells Fargo winner.

Paul Casey | $8,900 – I don’t know what to do with Casey this week. The profile fits and he’s finished in the top 10 in three of his last four stroke play events. He’s missed the cut in both of his starts at Quail Hollow, but hasn’t played it since 2011. He’s priced below the elite level of players and I think he’ll be low-owned as he’s not a “sexy” pick. His results have been volatile this year as well which scares me off a bit.

Byeong-Hun An | $8,600 – I whiffed on An last week, but I won’t make the same mistake this week. It’s tougher course and a tougher field so I don’t expect the youngster to challenge for the win, but he stands 32nd in DD, 11th in Eff200Y and 41st in SG:T2 which should make for a successful Wells Fargo debut.

Daniel Berger | $8,400 – Berger debuted with a T28 at Quail Hollow last year and I expect bigger things this week. His current form is excellent as he has three top 20s in a row on Tour. His statistical profile fits as he is 46th in SG:T2G, 35th in P4SE450-500, 67th in P5SE550-600, 88th in Eff200Y, and 25th in DD.

Bill Haas | $8,200 – Do you want form (three top 25s in his last three stroke play events)? Or do you want poor profile (192nd in P4SE450-500, 196th in P5SE550-600, 29th in Eff200Y, and 161st in DD)? Haas has that as well. How about poor course history (no finish in the top 40 in his last four starts here). I won’t be on him this week.

Charles Howell III | $8,100 – I know I said I wouldn’t own CHIII anymore, but he continues to produce solid, if unspectacular results after leaving California. He’s 35th in SG:T2G this year along with an uneven set of efficiency stats (162nd in P4SE450-500, 70th in P5SE550-600 and 40th in Eff200Y).

Kevin Kisner | $8,100 – Let’s get this out of the way right off. Kevin Kisner’s brother in law is a member at Quail Hollow. Take that for what it’s worth. He’s made the cut the last two years at Quail Hollow with aT6 in 2015. He’s ninth in P5SE550-600, but doesn’t have any other standout items in his profile. However, that par 5 scoring can be enough to succeed here. His current form is off as he hasn’t seen the top 20 in his last seven stroke play events.

Jim Furyk | $8,000 – Welcome back Jim! I’m going to wait to see how things go off your wrist injury.

Justin Thomas | $8,000 – Thomas’ profile (174th in P4SE450-500, 74th in P5SE550-600, and 81st in Eff200Y) shows the issues he’s had with scoring this year. He debuted here with a T7 and his length off the tee (28th this year) means he could duplicate that effort again this year. However, his current form (two top 20s in nine stroke play events this year) concerns me.

Webb Simpson | $7,900 – Let’s get THIS out of the way right up front. Simpson is a Quail Hollow member so he’s likely played the course more than anyone in the event. He’s made five cuts in a row and has two top five finishes including a T2 last year. Simpson has made six of seven cuts on Tour this year, but his recent results have been poor (T68, T29, and T66). Simpson is 37th in P4SE450-500, 165th in P5SE550-600, and 61st in Eff200Y.

Jamie Lovemark | $7,900 – Lovemark has begun to make good on the promise he showed as an amateur as he has six top 20s in 2016. He’s second in both Eff200Y and P4SE450-500 and 66th in P5SE550-600 so he may go about scoring a bit differently here than most, but it will work.

Kevin Chappell | $7,900 – Chappell has three top 10s in his last four events. Who knew? The statistical profile fits Quail Hollow (50th in P4SE450-500, 44th in P5SE550-600, 132nd in Eff200Y and 50th in driving distance) and his is four for five at the Wells Fargo with back to back to top 20s.

Gary Woodland | $7,800 – Another American bomber to target this week, Woodland is first in driving distance, 49th in P4SE450-500, first in P5SE550-600 and 30th in Eff200Y. He’s been in the top 20 in the last two years at Quail Hollow.

Shane Lowry | $7,800 – Debuts at Quail Hollow without a top 20 in his last six Tour events. The profile has some interesting parts (146th in P4SE450-500, 59th in P5SE550-600, 93rd in Eff200Y, and 63rd in DD. He be low-owned which his attractive, but I don’t think I’ll be riding him this week.

Bryson DeChambeau | $7,800 – The newly minted pro hasn’t been intimidated on Tour as an amateur or a pro. I imagine he’ll be heavily-owned which makes me turn a bit away from him as he debuts at a difficult course.

Patton Kizzire | $7,700 –That’s a tasty profile (30th in P4SE450-500, 15th in P5SE550-600 and 16th in Eff200Y) for someone who isn’t a big hitter. He has three top 15 finishes in his last four Tour events as he debuts at Quail Hollow.

Emiliano Grillo | $7,700 – Another debutante, Grillo comes in having made five cuts in a row. The profile works (32nd P4SE450-500, 39th in P5SE550-600, and 74th in Eff200Y) and is 63 rd in driving distance.

Patrick Rodgers | $7,700 – The profile lines up again this week (37th in SG:T2G, 71st in P4SE450-500, 20th in P5SE550-600, 12th in Eff200Y, and 23rd in DD) and he debuts here last year with a T2.

Tony Finau | $7,600 – Finau’s wife gave birth to the couples fourth child this week so Mazel Tov! It’s a #babyswag alert this week as Finau looks to build off of his T16 debut last year. He’s second in driving distance which has helped him to a 35th spot in P5SE550-600.

Danny Lee | $7,600 – Lee is short off the tee which is usually a concern here. However, he is 17th in P4SE450-500 and 56th in Eff200Y which is useful this week. He’s made three of four cuts at Quail Hollow with a top finish of T13 last year. He’s play has been up and down this year with three missed cuts and two top 20s.

Smylie Kaufman | $7,600 – Withdrew. Sadface.

Ryan Moore | $7,500 – Moore has made five straight cuts at Quail Hollow with a run of three straight top 20s from 2012 to 2014. He’s only played six stroke play events this year and has three top 15 finishes, a T74 and two missed cuts. It’s been all or nothing for Moore this year.

Kevin Streelman | $7,500 – Streelman is 59th in SG:T2G and 42nd in P4SE450-500 so he’s got some things that should lead to success. The rest of the profile isn’t very good at all. However, he has three straight top 15 finishes at Quail Hollow and has made two straight cuts on Tour after missing three cuts in a row.

Scott Brown | $7,500 – Brown has made three straight cuts at Quail Hollow with a T13 last year. He’s made seven cuts in a row on Tour though his last two results (71 st and T64) aren’t too impressive. He’s also 26th in Eff200Y so he may be able to capitalize in a different manner than most on this course.

Martin Kaymer | $7,400 – Does Kaymer’s T6 at the Real Club Valderrama Open de España, Hosted by the Sergio Garcia Foundation (phew) mean he’s back? I don’t think so, but he’s played Quail Hollow four times since 2009 with two top 20 finishes.

Graham DeLaet | $7,400 – DeLaet has made five straight cuts on Tour with three top 20s in his last four which is a level of consistency that we don’t usually see. He debuts at the Wells Fargo this week with a profile built to work (46th in P4SE450-500, 120th in P5SE550-600, 101st in Eff200Yand 32nd in driving distance.

Robert Streb | $7,400 – A T4 here last year excites me. Looking at his results for this year gets me un-excited. Even with his less than top results, his profile is still solid for the week (38th in P4SE450-500, 27th in P5SE550-600, 51st in Eff200Y and 70th in DD.

Luke Donald | $7,300 – Donald has made three cuts in a row and back to back top 15s on Tour. What’s changed with Donald? I’m glad you asked. He’s put a new putter into the rotation and voila! He’s 29th in P4SE450-500, but doesn’t have anything else to recommend him from a statistical profile. He’s not played here since 2008, but I’ll gladly back him in GPPs this week with renewed putting confidence.

Harris English | $7,300 – Nope.

David Lingmerth | $7,300 – Missed the cut in all three starts at Quail Hollow and hasn’t had a top 30 finish in his last eight Tour events.

Jason Kokrak | $7,200 – Kokrak’s profile is excellent (he’s fifth in driving distance, 51st in P4SE450-500, 40th in P5SE550-600 and 68th in Eff200Y), but it hasn’t show up yet at Quail Hollow as he is two for four in cuts made without a top 20.

Brendan Steele | $7,200 – Steele is long off the tee (16th this year), but hasn’t scored well on the key par 5 distance (114th in P5SE550-600). However, he’s 51st in P4SE450-500 and 48th in Eff200Y. He finished T13  at the Valero in his last event after missing his first two cuts of 2016.

 Brian Stuard | $7,200 – That’s a lot of helium for Mr. Stuard.

Ian Poulter | $7,100 – Poulter’s made six straight cuts, but his only notable result (T3) was at the Puerto Rico Open which is a muni tourney on a muni course.

Jason Bohn | $7,100 – Not yet.

Scott Stallings | $7,100 – Stallings’ putter is poor, but that may not matter this week. He’s currently 45th in P4SE450-500, 103rd in P5SE550-600, 41st in Eff200Y, and 53rd in driving distance. His best finish in five trips to Quail Hollow was a T72 in 2011. He’s never made a cut since.

Ben Martin | $7,000 – A short hitter, but he’s 15th in and 24th in Eff200Y. He’s made the cut the last two years here with a top finish of T38 and has made six cuts in a row on Tour.

Luke List | $6,900 – List’s only start here was in 2013 and finished T16. The profile looks great as he’s 27th in SG:T2G, 143rd in SG:P4, 44th in P4SE450-500, 12th in P5SE550-600, 23rd in Eff200Y, and 11th in driving distance.  It’s the profile of an elite player packaged under $7,000. Run, don’t walk, to roster List!

Harold Varner III | $6,900 – Harold Varner the Third has back to back top 10s on Tour coming in. He’s long off the tee (19th this year) and scores well on par 5s (23rd in P5SE550-600).

Si Woo Kim | $6,900 – Kim is 47th in P4SE450-500 which can be useful here, but the rest of the profile doesn’t look great.

Stewart Cink | $6,800 – Withdrew.

Francesco Molinari | $6,800 – Even though Molinari is short off the tee, he’s put up excellent efficiency stats (31st in P5SE550-600 and 27th in Eff200Y) this year. He debuts this week and has made three straight cuts on Tour.

Spencer Levin | $6,700 – Levin is 47th in P5SE550-600 and 18th in Eff200Y even though he’s 168th in driving distance.  He’s missed the cut in four of his five starts at Quail Hollow, but has made three straight cuts on Tour.

John Senden | $6,600 – Senden has made nine of 11 cuts with one top 10 at Quail Hollow (though he hasn’t played here since 2013). He’s 37th in P5SE550-600 and has two top 25s in his last three Tour starts.

Shawn Stefani | $6,600 – Stefani is three for three in cuts made at the Wells Fargo Champsionship with a T9 last year. He’s made back to back cuts on Tour coming in.

Will Wilcox | $6,600 – Wilcox is a favorite of the DFS cognoscenti and as he gets hotter his ownership levels will rise. He finished T15 last week; his second cut made in a row. His struggles this year haven’t impacted his ability to score (third in P4SE450-500, 55th in P5SE550-600, 53rd in Eff200Y and 51st in DD).

Brendon Todd | $6,500 – Woof.

Jhonattan Vegas | $6,400 – Vegas’ best finish in his four trips to Quail Hollow was last year’s T76, but…………..this is 2016 Jhonny Vegas! He’s in the top 20 in all three efficiency stats for the week and has made four of his last five cuts on Tour with a T5 at the Zurich last week.

William McGirt | $6,400 – McGirt has made only one cut in four starts at Quail Hollow, but has the profile of a shorter hitter who can succeed here. He’s in off back to back made cuts on Tour.

Ollie Schniederjans | $6,400 – Ollie is plying his trade on the Web.com Tour where he’s made four cuts in a row and has finished in the top 15in his last three. He’s seventh in driving distance, 11th in P4SE450-500 and 35th in P5SE550-600. Intriguing!

Chad Campbell | $6,300 – The stats line up again for Mr. Campbell this week, but they did last week and that gave us a T72 finish. He’s made eight of 11 cuts here, but hasn’t sniffed the top 20 yet. He’s a low upside, cut-maker.

Lucas Glover | $6,300 – Glover won here in 2011 when he forgot how to putt badly and put on a show. He led the field in SG:P by gaining 10.606 strokes over the field. That’s a full year’s worth of SG:P for Glover. I don’t expect a repeat, but poor putters can succeed at this course as putting is tough for everyone.  He has made nine of 12 cuts with four top 10s at the event. However, since his win Glover has missed the cut twice and hasn’t finished in the top 25. The profile fits (72nd in P4SE450-500, 24th in P5SE550-600, 78th in Eff200Y, and 37th in DD) and we just need an average putting week for him to contend.

Geoff Ogilvy | $6,200 – Course history alert! He’s 11 for 11 in cuts made at the Wells Fargo and has back to back top 15s. However, his current form is unspeakable.

Sean O’Hair | $6,100 – O’Hair won this event in 2009, but has struggled here since with two of five made cuts. Both made cuts were top 20 finishes and if he can capitalize on a solid profile (30th in P4SE450-500, 65th in P5SE550-600, 38th in Eff200Y, and 28th in driving distance) he could be part of a winning GPP squad.

Steve Wheatcroft | $6,100 – Wheaties (that’s his nickname, right) has a puncher’s chance as he’s 17th in P5SE550-600. He’s made six cuts in a row on Tour.

Derek Ernst | $6,100 – The former champ (2013) comes in off his best finish of 2016 with a T36 at the Zurich. He’s 53rd in driving distance which has contributed to his eighth place standing in P4SE450-500, and 63rd in P5SE550-600.

Nick Taylor | $6,000 – Another solid flyer for the week (that’s what soft pricing will do) as he’s currently 43rd in P4SE450-500, 107th P5SE550-600, 28th Eff200Y, and 47th DD. He’s made five straight cuts and eight of his last nine on Tour. He missed the cut in his debut at Quail Hollow last year.

Brendon de Jonge | $5,900 – His form is awful coming in (as it has been just about all year long). However, he had one of the more entertaining opening two rounds here in 2014 when he finished T6. He opened with an 80 and had no chance at making the cut. Then, he turned around on Friday with a 62 and ended up T6. As we look at scrubs, I’m always intrigued by players who have shown they can go low in the past.

Brett Stegmaier | $5,900 – Stego’s tee to green and putting have been mediocre this year, but he’s been able to score well from the key distances for this week (48th in P4SE450-500, 41st in P5SE550-600, 59th in Eff200Y and 57th in driving distance. It’s his first time at the event and in his last five starts on Tour he’s missed the cut four times and withdrawn once.

Roberto Castro | $5,900 – Castro skipped last year’s Wells Fargo, but has made the cut in three prior events including a T8 in 2014. His current form is also solid for a player below $6k as he’s made four out of his last five cuts on Tour. His efficiency stats give me hope (69th in P4SE450-500, 89th in P5SE550-600, and 82nd in Eff200Y) even if he’s very short off the tee.

Carlos Ortiz | $5,900 – Ortiz was fourth in P5E550-600 last year which is good. He’s 155th this year which is bad.  He debuted here last year with a solo 19th place finish.

Ricky Barnes | $5,800 – Barnes has made three of six cuts at this tournament, but has been in the top 30 when he’s seen the weekend.

Fabian Gomez | $5,800 – 26th in P4SE450-500 and 49th inP5SE550-600. Now that’s interesting. He had back to back top 10 finishes to start 2016 and then hasn’t seen a top 40 since.

Derek Fathauer | $5,800 – Fathauer is 47th in P5SE550-600 and 71st in Eff200Y. He’s also 14th in SG:P so maybe he’ll see the weekend.

David Toms | $5,700 – Toms is EXTREMELY short off the tee, but he’s done a solid job scoring on the shorter holes this year (68th in P4SE450-500, 102nd inP5SE550-600and 70th in Eff200Y).

Tim Wilkinson | $5,700 – The Aussie has made three cuts in a row on Tour, though this course seems to be a bit over his head as he’s missed the cut in all four of this starts.

Andrew Loupe | $5,700 – Loupe is fourth in fourth in Eff200Y and 18th in P5SE550-600 which is an intriguing mix for Quail Hollow. If he can just tread water on the par 4s, he’s a solid bet to make the cut and score well doing so. He’s missed two cuts in a row on Tour and four of his last five.

Davis Love III | $5,500 – Had success here in the past, but has only played once in the last four years and ended up T65.

Rory Sabbatini | $5,500 – Sabbs is only two for his last five at Quail Hollow, but he’s finished in the top 10 when he’s made the cut.

Brian Gay | $5,400 – Withdrew.

Vijay Singh | $5,300 – Vijay’s success here is in the distant past, but he does have five top 10s in 12 starts. He’s made back to back cuts on Tour, so he represents a solid cut-making option at a minimum price.

Scott Pinckney | $5,300 – A minimum priced option with a bit of upside? Tell me more. Pinckney is currently 41st in driving distance and 51st in P5SE550-600. He debuted at Quail Hollow last year with a respectable T47. He’s missed his last three cuts on Tour.

Good luck this week! Head over to DraftKings to choose your squad for this week.

DraftKings Scoring

Roster size: 6 Golfers

POINT SCORING

Golfers on each team will accumulate points as follows:

  • Per Hole Scoring
    • Double Eagle (DBL EAG): +20 PTs
    • Eagle (EAG): +8 PTs
    • Birdie (BIR): +3 PTs
    • Par (PAR): +0.5 PTs
    • Bogey (BOG): -0.5 PTs
    • Double Bogey (DBL BOG): -1 PT
    • Worse than Double Bogey (WORSE DBL BOG): -1 PT
  • Tournament Finish Scoring
    • 1st: 30 PTs
    • 2nd: 20 PTs
    • 3rd: 18 PTs
    • 4th: 16 PTs
    • 5th: 14 PTs
    • 6th: 12 PTs
    • 7th: 10 PTs
    • 8th: 9 PTs
    • 9th: 8 PTs
    • 10th: 7 PTs
    • 11th–15th: 6 PTs
    • 16th–20th: 5 PTs
    • 21st–25th: 4 PTs
    • 26th–30th: 3 PTs
    • 31st–40th: 2 PTs
    • 41st-50th: 1 PTs
  • Streaks and Bonuses
    • Streak of 3 Birdies of Better (MAX 1 Per Round) (3+ BIR STRK): +3 PTs
    • Bogey Free Round (BOG FREE RD): +3 PTs
    • All 4 Rounds Under 70 Strokes (ALL 4 RDS UND 70): +5 PTs
    • Hole in One (HOLE IN ONE): +10 PTs

Scoring Notes: Ties for a finishing position will not reduce or average down points. For example, if 2 golfers tie for 3rd place, each will receive the 18 fantasy points for the 3rd place finish result. Playoff Holes will not count towards final scoring, with the exception of the “finishing position” scoring. For example, the golfer who wins the tournament will receive the sole award of 1st place points, but will not accrue points for their scoring result in the individual playoff holes.

Player Lock Notes: All golfers lock at the time the first golfer tees off on day 1 of an event.

Full rules are located here for DraftKings Daily Fantasy golf.

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