2013 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Postseason Generated ADP, Risers and Fallers

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Photo Credit: Eric Fischer

Don’t blame me, blame the playoffs.  Point the finger at the nationally broadcasted games, the media, and the casual fan.  They are the ones who will put a wrinkle in your 2014 fantasy baseball draft plans.  I am only the messenger, telling you how the 2013 postseason messed with your upcoming offseason strategy.  Remember David Freese’s 2011 World Series MVP?  The hype machine shot him up draft boards for 2012.  Remember Shelby Miller?  Mike Matheny doesn’t.  And now neither does Casual Joe.  Welcome to the two sides of a coin.  Where there is love, there is hate.  Where there is buzz, there are buzz saws.  And it’s time to see who is beloved and who is dust.

Risers:

  1. David Ortiz
    • Big Papi was a monster in the postseason and the 2013 World Series MVP.  This is quite a shame really.  Not for any real life reason, but because he was going so cheap in drafts for the last couple of seasons.  He had another great season, so his rising ADP can be attributed to that as well, but he always seemed like the forgotten man or perhaps drafters were always concerned about age and health.  I suppose you can call it “waiting for the other shoe to drop” syndrome.  Now the whole world knows he is still a great hitter and will be drafted accordingly.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: 114
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 65
  2. Jon Lester
    • Whether or not Jon Lester has turned a corner can be debated.  Eno Sarris of Fangraphs wrote a great piece on Lester’s mechanical changes post All-Star break.  He got off to a fast start and ended up right about where I expected him to be (my first ever article).  However, now that Eno has sighted this new mechanical change for us, there may be something to Lester’s playoff run.  If his season ended September 28th, I would actually be talking about what a potential good buy we have on our hands.  But now because of the playoffs, Lester’s price won’t be as discounted.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: 121
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 100
  3. Gerrit Cole
    • Not unlike Michael Wacha, Cole showed great stuff and dominance in the postseason.  When compared to Wacha, Cole has more pedigree and a larger sample size of regular season success.  His performance improved as the season went on, along with a growing strikeout rate.  This all will affect his ADP, making it higher than some may have hoped, but he is still a player you want to grab at this price.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: N/A (waiver wire pickup in most leagues)
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 110
  4. Michael Wacha
    • We were oh so close to having a nice bargain on our hands.  Michael Wacha was hidden for most of the 2013 season, pitching only 64.2 innings.  Owners would have likely struck gold late in their draft.  Unfortunately for obsessed savvy owners of MLB farm systems, the casual fan now knows all about Wacha Wacha (but do they know about this?).  Despite his poor Game Six, the memories of Wacha’s dominance is now firmly in the minds of many.  Out of all the players on this list, Wacha’s ADP may end up climbing the most due to his playoff success.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: N/A (waiver wire pickup in most leagues)
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 140
  5. Sonny Gray
    • I have to admit, this may be more for the more advanced fantasy players than the casual fans, but come spring time, people will remember the name Sonny Gray (especially if he lights up Spring Training).  Gray is an imperfect pitcher who needs to add a third pitch (changeup coming along), but I imagine he will end up being a useful pitcher about 75% of the time for fantasy owners.  He pitched well in a limited number of innings during the regular season and then really showed up for the playoffs.  He showed an impressive curveball and will now not be omitted by the intermediate fantasy owner come draft day, however, the price and value will still be there.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: N/A (waiver wire pickup in most leagues)
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 190

Other Likely ADP Risers:

  • Carlos Beltran (similar to the David Ortiz story)
  • Adrian Gonzalez (three homers making him look like the power hitter he no longer is)
  • Trevor Rosenthal (now off the sneaky closer radar)
  • Koji Uehara (he likely took himself out of the friendly closer price range)
  • Yasiel Puig (more exposure, more drool)
  • Justin Verlander (looked absolutely dominate, making many forget his disappointing regular season – faith restored.  Imagine if he failed?)
  • Xander Bogaerts (I unintentionally left him off the list (until now), which perhaps means something.  Bogaerts slowly but surely got his chance in the postseason, only accumulating 27 at-bats.  He wasn’t overwhelmed by the moment and looks ready to take over as a full-time starter in 2014, but he didn’t have eye-popping postseason numbers, which may help protect his ADP.)

 

Fallers:

  1. Kris Medlen
    • Entering 2013, Kris Medlen was a fantasy baseball darling.  How quickly things can change.  It isn’t that he had a poor season because he didn’t.  But his low k-rate comes off as unappealing and there was even some speculation about him being from the rotation.  Medlen managed to hold firm and had an overall strong season, but he lost some grip during his lone playoff appearance.  It wasn’t a good outing and it added to the perception that Medlen was overvalued in 2013 drafts.  This may be true, but now we are looking at a possibility at gaining some value.  There is still a chance he can spike that k-rate to a more valuable level.  I have a feeling he will be ignored on draft day, making him a sneaky addition to your rotation.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: 74
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 125
  2. Freddie Freeman
    • Freeman had a strong showing last season and there was even some NL MVP chatter, so it is a good thing he didn’t do anything spectacular on nationally televised games.  He isn’t necessarily a fantasy stud, but he will help you in average and there is always the chance he gets to the 30 homer mark.  A conservative projection for Freeman is a 280 BA with 25 homers.  He has upside for more, but I feel like you will end up paying a little extra for the safe floor.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: 82
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 55
  3. Matt Carpenter
    • If you haven’t been following lately, Matt Carpenter has been going very high in early fantasy baseball drafts.  I believe I read as high as the second and third rounds, which is just absurd to me.  He is a better real life hitter than fantasy hitter, and that doesn’t pay the bills for us fantasy owners.  I am not sure what all the fuss is about and it is too bad he didn’t have a better postseason.  Despite the poor showing, it looks like he will still be thought of highly come draft day, but a big postseason would have been icing on the cake.  Shucks.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: 214
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 60
  4. Shelby Miller
    • Miller couldn’t tell you why he wasn’t used this postseason, so why should I?  But it happened and it looked bad.  Overall the rookie was great in 2013, but he did struggle more in the second half.  Something many expected since he is mostly all fastball and is still learning how to pitch.  The talent is there however, and that can’t be ignored.  I have a sneaking suspicion he will be a relative bargain on draft day.  Casual Joe may say, “If he’s so good, why wasn’t he used in the playoffs”?  Fantasy Nerd may say, “There’s no way he can continue to be so good with one pitch”.  Not the most scientific analysis, but the human mind is a hell-of-a thing.  If he falls even further than my predicted ADP on draft day, he will fit nicely as a number three starter.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: 244
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 90
  5. Matt Moore
    • I wasn’t the biggest fan of Matt Moore heading into the 2013 season.  Too many concerns for his giant price tag.  It turns out that was the right move.  Unfortunately for the Tampa Bay Rays and Matt Moore, he did not have any Justin Verlander type moments and did not show the national audience something to go gaga over in upcoming drafts.  At some point there is a time when the right amount of risk makes sense.  He has upside, but has a bunch of red flags.  I will speculate if he takes a huge nosedive, but I don’t see myself coming away with any Moore shares once again in 2014.
      • 2013 Y! ADP: 84
      • 2014 Y! Predicted ADP: 135

Other Likely ADP Fallers:

  • Danny Salazar (Phew! That was a close one.  This ultra-talented young man didn’t get a chance to show off how could he can be – Value Town)
  • Kolten Wong (He may win a spot out of Spring Training and is 2b eligible, but wait, YOU DID WHAT!?!?!)

 

There you have it.  We can talk about the ADP predictions, but I tried using 2013 as a reference.  Matt Harvey went at pick 132 for instance.  I tried to get a feel for how things would fall.  Not an easy task at this point.  Feel free to post your thoughts in the comment section below and remember, don’t kill the messenger.

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2 Comments

  1. November 2, 2013 at 3:01 pm — Reply

    Nice list and thoughts–but, come on, no Xander Bogaerts?!?!?!

    • November 2, 2013 at 4:12 pm — Reply

      Thanks, but ugh…you are 100% correct, especially since I own him as a potential keeper. I will update it and write a little blurb on him.

      Noted.

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