2014 Fantasy BaseballFantasy BaseballTotal Run Index

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Total Run Index, TRI vs Catcher ADP

rosario land
Source: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America

Average draft position (ADP) is one of the most valuable tools in a fantasy player’s arsenal if they know how to use it. Our own Brett Talley has already looked at the catcher position, but it is always a good idea to keep looking back. After all, ADP is an evolving metric as more and more fantasy players draft.

ADP doesn’t tell you where players should be selected, but it tells you where players are being drafted. Of course, total run index (TRI) is one method of figuring out where players should be selected. You could blindly set your draft list according to TRI or you could utilize the substitution value that we will see in more detail in the 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. Yet, you will get more value if you pay attention to where guys are going and get the maximum amount of bang for your buck.

So, we will take a look where the top twenty catchers are in terms of ADP and where they should go according to the index. We will be using the NFBC ADP positions as found at http://www.stats.nesn.com . As we will see, that site did not include Mike Napoli or Victor Martinez in its catcher rankings. However, Yan Gomes of the Cleveland Indians has been added into the conversation.

P Rank

ADP

Index

I Rank

Buster Posey

1

40.1

+23.3

1

Carlos Santana

2

65.8

+18.7

2

Joe Mauer

3

67.9

+18.0

3

Wilin Rosario

4

69.9

  +1.3

17

Yadier Molina

5

73.2

+17.1

4

Salvador Perez

6

83.7

  +3.6

10

Brian McCann

7

85.7

  +6.1

6

Jonathan Lucroy

8

86.7

  +4.0

8

Matt Wieters

9

101.2

   -1.2

21

Wilson Ramos

10

145.1

  +2.9

13

Jason Castro

11

158.3

  +2.3

15

A.J. Pierzynski

12

194.4

   -7.5

23

Yan Gomes

13

214.0

  +3.5

11

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

14

216.3

  +1.6

16

Miguel Montero

15

226.8

  +3.4

12

Carlos Ruiz

16

250.3

  +9.7

5

Russell Martin

17

256.1

   -0.8

19

Travis d’Arnauld

18

264.5

   -5.8

22

Ryan Doumit

19

268.0

   -0.9

20

Devin Mesoraco

20

276.2

   -7.8

24

TRI Bargains

Carlos Ruiz

Ruiz is probably being drafted lower because he missed the first couple of months of the 2013 season. His wRC+ of 89 is the lowest of his career since 2008. He was above 100 every year before. However, when you consider his .291 BABIP it makes some sense. I don’t expect 2012 numbers, but something closer to his career norm should be expected.

Miguel Montero

Montero’s wRC+ was the lowest of his career since his first full season in the big leagues in 2007. It also was his lowest BABIP since that season. Add 30 points (to reach his career BABIP average) and he would have hit .260 with an OBP around .350. A .750 OPS seems like a reasonable expectation for him. If you can get that after the 200th pick in the draft you should thank your lucky stars

TRI Overvalues

Wilin Rosario

You have two full seasons and two season with wRC+ over 100. I understand the impulse to treat him as a breakout candidate, but there are two very alarming things going against him. First, his BABIP of .344 was artificially high this past season. His career average is .315 and with that he would hit around .260 this past season. Secondly, he sported a 3.2 percent walk rate this past season. The 17th TRI rank is based on his three year average and may be a bit low, but fourth seems way too high to me.

Matt Wieters

Okay, let’s take his three year wRC+ average at face value. He is averaging exactly 100 over the past three seasons with three consecutive seasons with 20 home runs or more. A collective OBP around .315 just doesn’t impress me. I might buy better than 21st (23rd if you include Mike Napoli and Victor Martinez as catchers) but he just doesn’t seem good enough to be a starting fantasy catcher.

Waiver Wire Possibilities

If you take a typical fantasy league of 12 teams you can assume that they would have 25 rounds of selections for their roster. Twelve times twenty-five equals 300. So, if you look below the 300 barrier you will see players that likely will be available of the waiver wire following your draft. If for some reason you overdrafted at some positions, you can always look here to bring your roster back to balance.

A.J. Ellis (339.1 ADP)

Ellis has two seasons as a regular at the big league level and he has produced seasons with 118 and 95 wRC+ respectively. Most were scared away by the .238 batting average last season, but that came with a .269 BABIP. Even a .300 BABIP would have produced a .270ish average with a .350 OBP. His OPS was still a respectable .692 last season with the bad batted ball luck. I can understand being squeamish about making him your fantasy regular, but you could do a whole lot worse for your backup spot.

John Jaso (393.9 ADP)

Let’s be perfectly honest about Jaso. For his career, he is averaging a 117 wRC+. This makes him an elite performer at the position, but he has never had more than 404 plate appearances. Derek Norris earned more playing time behind the dish last season and Jaso was limited to 249 PA. The idea is that Jaso will spend more time at DH next season and therefore could get back to 400 plate appearances. If he does he is definitely worth a roster spot in most fantasy leagues.

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