In the first part of our look at the starting pitcher market, we looked at the top eight names that have been bandied about by MLBTR as possible trade targets by next Friday’s non-waiver trade deadline. There are other arms available, and they are the kind to fly under the radar as significant pieces for a team in a pennant race. Everyone loves the top of the rotation arm, but sometimes teams can’t afford them and may not absolutely need them. However, they may need someone that can give them five or six good innings every fifth day.

In terms of fantasy value, these are the guys that usually get dumped before this point because they have either disappointed or fantasy players have simply found someone better. However, some of them can make a fantasy impact if they go to the right club and get hot. We’ve seen it before, and we will likely see it again.

The purpose of this article is not to determine where or if they will go. The purpose is to look at their numbers and determine if they are good candidates to see a bump in performance if they move to a new club. More of these guys will be a good candidate, but there are always some that are better than others. We will look at the pitchers’ BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and their SIERA (skill interactive earned run average) and compare that with their actual ERA. We often see pitchers in this category underachieve because of the teams they are on.

End of the Rotation Arms

Like with the first edition guys, the trick for teams is the same as it is for fantasy players. You want to trick others into thinking your second tier guy is a first tier guy. Occasionally, you have a first tier guy hiding on this list. Our first group of guys falls under the category of pitchers that might be borderline first tier material.

Get Ready to Pounce

Andrew Cashner — San Diego Padres

As stated in the last edition, the Padres may have the worst defensive outfield in the big leagues. His home run per flyball rate is standing at 11.9 percent. That’s higher than the league average and especially high for a guy pitching half of his games in Petco Park. Of course, the most tantalizing thing about him is that fastball (averaging 95 MPH). Betting on him is more about betting on the talent then betting on regression. A good pitching coach could unlock the ace everyone thinks is there.

Mike Fiers — Milwaukee Brewers

Anyone that has a sub 4.00 ERA in Milwaukee has to be a pretty good pitcher. Fiers doesn’t look like a playoff arm. He’s never been healthy and has never averaged better than 89 MPH with the fastball, but he has a 3.62 career ERA and a career 3.52 SIERA. Maybe it’s time to believe in him. He’s been linked to the Blue Jays and with that offense he might finish the year in double digits in the win department. It may not seem like much, but when coupled with a 3.50ish ERA, you could do a lot worse.

Kyle Lohse — Milwaukee Brewers

Yeah, it seems crazy, but there is no explanation for why his numbers have been awful except for bad luck. The velocity isn’t down, but he is giving up the highest line drive rate of his career. Still, his SIERA is around career norms. Going to another squad could unlock the key for Lohse. I guarantee you that 99 percent of your leagues don’t have this guy. If he gets traded, he’s worth a waiver claim.

Avoid Like the Plague

Dan Haren — Miami Marlins

If Dan Jennings (or whoever is running the show over there) is smart, they’ll deal Haren now. I mean right now. He is hanging on a low BABIP thread that is certain to rip within the next few weeks. His .251 BABIP is the lowest of the pitchers profiled, and there is nothing in his batted ball statistics to suggest why it has been that low. He’s in the last year of a contract and has outperformed every expectation for a bad team. Go get something for him Jennings. The rest of you should just stay away.

Aaron Harang — Philadelphia Phillies

At first glance, Harang looks like a perfect waiver wire dumpster candidate. He leads the NL in losses because, well, the Phillies suck. His ERA and FIP (fielding independent pitching) look reasonable and you could even see him improving with a good fielding team. Unfortunately, his SIERA says otherwise. He’s coming to the end of the line and has given the Phillies some decent innings, but there isn’t much more left in the tank.

Mike Leake — Cincinnati Reds

Like with Johnny Cueto, Leake has enjoyed good fielding behind him, and I just don’t see him necessarily getting that elsewhere. I like Leake as a fourth or fifth starter in real life, but in fantasy baseball he really doesn’t offer much more than average production in any of the categories. He might win more elsewhere, but I hate betting on wins to make an acquisition make sense.