Fantasy Baseball

2016 Fantasy Baseball: Boston Red Sox Trade Wade Miley to the Seattle Mariners

The Winter Meetings is a fun time of year. It’s awesome to watch general managers work. You lose a guy and then go right out and get another guy. The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners consummated a trade, but the roots of that trade came earlier in the weekend. The Dodgers lost Zack Greinke, so they signed Hisahsi Iwakuma away from the Mariners. Newly minted general manager Jerry Dipoto responded by trading young starter Roenis Elias and reliever Carson Smith for Wade Miley and reliever Jonathan Aro.

Why do the Mariners make this deal?

This might have been the first shaky move by Dipoto since he took over in Seattle. Obviously, losing Iwakuma was quite a blow. He was a combined 47-25 in four seasons in Seattle. That’s awfully tough to replace. Miley is not nearly on that level, but Dipoto is clearly going for another arm that can go out there and hurl close to 200 innings. The problem is that Elias might have been able to do that himself. Both Miley and Elias have virtually the same numbers over the past two years, but Miley has the edge on durability.

The price comes in surrendering Carson Smith. Dipoto just traded the two best relievers on the staff to restore some other areas of the team. Clearly, the direction of baseball has been moving towards deeper pens. Dipoto has now jettisoned Tom Wilhelmsen and Smith. The two combined for 26 saves last season after Fernando Rodney hit the skids. Yes, they did get Joaquin Benoit earlier this season, but their bullpen depth will be a significant issue moving forward.

The good news is that both Miley and Nate Karns add depth to this rotation. If Taijuan Walker and James Paxton remain healthy, then they might have one of the better rotations in the American League. I’m just not sure they will have the bullpen necessary to make a playoff run.

Why do the Red Sox do this trade?

Signing David Price created a bit of a quandary for the Red Sox. Obviously, 31 million per season is a hefty price for even the Red Sox. So, they dealt Wade Miley and the 27 million he is owed through 2018 to the Mariners for a couple of young pitchers that will help them now. Joe Kelly slides right into Wade Miley’s spot in the rotation, but Elias should compete for a starting spot in camp. If he doesn’t make it, he can serve as either a long reliever or depth at the minor league level.

The huge addition in this deal was Smith. Sure, getting a setup guy is not necessarily that impressive when you think about dealing a 200 inning pitcher, but when you consider this as a salary dump, then you have to think the Red Sox came out smelling like a rose. A little more than two weeks ago, the pen was Koji Uehara and pray. Now, they have Craig Kimbrel and both Uehara and Smith as setup guys. They may have gone from having one of the worst pens in the American League to having one of the best.

What this deal means for you

In reality, Carson Smith had already lost his closer’s role when the Mariners acquired Benoit. So, he goes from being a setup guy in Seattle to being a setup guy in Boston. If your league includes holds then he likely be will just as valuable here as he was there. Obviously, Ash and Elias are fringe fantasy prospects whether they are here or there. So, that leaves the headliner of the deal. As we have done with all of our starting pitchers on the move, we will look at the defense efficiency ratings and park factors.

Boston: .680 (25th)

Seattle: .688 (17th)

Just looking at the fielding alone makes Wade Miley look a little better in terms of being a fantasy option. Seattle is hardly a mecca for fielding greatness, but it beats where he was at. Miley’s FIP was under 4.00 last season while his ERA was well above 4.00. Fantasy leagues don’t give you credit for FIP. Based on what we see above, his FIP and ERA should be pretty close next season.

Fenway Park: 109 (one year); 107 (multi-year)

Safeco Field: 95 (one year); 94 (multi-year)

100 is average in terms of park factors according to baseball-reference.com. Anything above 100 indicates the park plays as a hitter’s park. This is hardly a surprise when it comes to Fenway Park. As a lefty, Miley was susceptible to right handed hitters and the Green Monster. Moving to Safeco Field will be like going to heaven for Miley. When you combine the fielding improvement with the improvement with his home ballpark, it makes Miley a pretty intriguing fantasy prospect.

Previous post

Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 7, 2015

Next post

Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: December 8, 2015