No Way Pedro – Bold Predictions 2017 – The results are in!
You may recall back in preseason, I did an article offering up a bold prediction for each team during the 2017. I know it’s a bit of a re-hash of something many others do, but it was a bit of fun whilst offering some improbable but not impossible insights.
The article is called “No Way Pedro” (which is a British comedy reference I won’t bore you all with) and now the regular season is in the books, I figured it might be fun looking back over the predictions and seeing if I actually nailed any.
So without further ado, let’s take a look back at the result.
Paul Goldschmidt will have a 30/40 season whilst scoring and driving in 100 runs to win the NL MVP.
The homers came through with some to spare and he easily drove in 100+ runs (finishing with 120 RBIs). But he didn’t come close to 40 steals with only 18. Partly because he didn’t need to steal and partly because as a stud player who does everything else, the Diamondbacks will look to limit the chances he gets hurt sliding into second.
Ender Inciarte will lead the majors in runs scored by an outfielder.
He finished up 13th (15th if you include Kris Bryant and Jose Ramirez). Still good but missing Freeman for a few weeks and having no serious no.2 hitter for most of the season hurt Inciarte’s chances to put up triple digit runs, ending with a not so paltry 93.
Wellington Castillo will be a top 3 Catcher.
He came 8th. Not bad considering he had two DL stints and fewer at-bats (341) than the seven above him. In a time where catchers are a quagmire of mediocrity, even playing four times a week meant Castillo had good value for your fantasy team.
Boston Red Sox
Mitch Moreland will lead the team in home runs.
He wasn’t quite the power threat I envisaged but still hit more homers (22) than anyone in Boston outside Hanley Ramirez (23) and Mookie Betts (24). Pretty good going still for someone drafted as a late rounder in deep leagues.
Hector Rondon gets 35 saves.
Wade Davis stayed healthy and effective, that’s what. A 4.24 ERA prevented Rondon getting any chances and he finished the season saveless.
Chicago White Sox
No White Sox pitcher earns double digit saves.
David Robertson hung around in the South Side a little longer than I anticipated and mustered 13 saves for the White Sox. Juan Minaya got the role later in the year and ended up with 9 saves, which still isn’t double digits!
Billy Hamilton steals 100 bases.
I was backing on Hamilton to make improvements enough to get him on base more often. Hamilton did approve upon his career OBP of .298 by getting on base at a .299 clip! Still not nearly enough to get close to 100 steals, reaching 59 despite missing a few weeks late in the season with a thumb injury.
Corey Kluber wins the AL Cy Young.
Check back in a few weeks, but I reckon he’s getting the nod over Chris Sale.
Gregg Holland will be a top-5 fantasy closer.
Some August struggles slowed him down but Holland still mustered up 41 saves and of all closers, is a top 10 on the ESPN player-rater so although I wasn’t right, I’ll take this as a win of sorts.
James McCann hits 25 homers.
McCann struggled early in the year, ceding playing time to Alex Avila before his trade to the Cubs. Since then, McCann has been a fantasy asset at catcher but still not enough to top 25 homers (ending with 13). But I might just be heading back to this particular well next season.
Altuve, Correa and Springer will combine for 100 home runs and 100 stolen bases.
82 home runs & 39 stolen bases. Correa’s injury and only Altuve really stealing (32 of those are his) rendered my hopes of an Astros triple assault only part true.
Kansas City Royals
No Royal will hit 20 home runs.
I was right about this being a down year for the Royals. But four players (Moustakas, Hosmer, Perez and Moss) hit 20 or more home runs (Moustakas breaking out with 36) so it was a bit of a whiff here. Even Whit Merrifield tallied 19.
Los Angeles Angels
Ben Revere will lead the American League in stolen bases.
He might have done if he got to play. He still managed 21 despite only 291 at-bats on the year. He just needs to find a way to regular playing time to be effective in fantasy.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez hits 25 homers, bats .290 with 100+ RBIs.
He stunk, he got hurt and he stunk again. 3 homers, 30 RBIs and .242 average in 231 at-bats reek of Gonzalez being near the end of his career. The end appeared much sooner than I thought.
Giancarlo will lead the majors by hitting 50 home runs.
It might not have seemed like much of a bold prediction. But don’t forget Stanton never even reached 40 homers in a season before this year. His MLB best 59 has put those previous health concerns in the rear view mirror. Stanton is back as a first rounder in 2018.
Eric Thames won’t hit 18 home runs and will get fewer than 500 plate appearances.
I expected Thames to struggle. He did, but not before a red hot start saw Thames hit 11 homers in April alone. He’s not hit more than 6 in any month since (finished with 31 on the season) and saw his playing time against lefties dwindle away (his .182/.270/.394 slash line against them explains that).
The Twins decision making this week has been questionable at best. And by season’s end, Byung-Ho Park will be playing in Korea again
Despite his strong spring and subsequent demotion to Triple-A, Park did not feature for the Twins this year and didn’t exactly tear through minor league pitching. He is still with the Twins organisation however so wrong again Jamie!
New York Mets
Robert Gsellman will win more games than any Mets pitcher.
Gsellman finished second with 8. Only Degrom had more (15). I figured the Mets rotation would struggle with form and injury and Gsellman would be better than he has been. Considering Gsellman threw less than 120 innings and had an ERA over five, it’s remarkable he managed 7 wins really.
New York Yankees
Luis Severino will have a sub 3.20 ERA and lead the American League in wins by a pitcher.
I might have been wrong but props are needed. Not only did Severino have a sub 3.20 ERA, he had a sub 3 ERA (2.98 at the end of the season). 14 wins ranked him tied for 9th in the American League and he’s likely to finish high in the CY Young voting. Given he ended last year in the bullpen due to inefficiencies, it’s been a remarkable turnaround only true visionaries could have foreseen.
The A’s will have 3 different pitchers registering double digit saves.
The merry-go-round in Oakland’s bullpen did come to fruition, but Casilla finished with 16 saves and Treinen with 13 for the A’s so I wasn’t a million miles away. Doolittle and Madson were traded as anticipated, just a bit earlier than I thought.
Roman Quinn will be the Phillies most valuable fantasy outfielder.
I’ll just silently take the “L” for this one. Who knows, Quinn might actually make the Majors next year……….
I included Tyler Glasnow here last year in saying he will get 10 wins. Now I’m saying he’ll lead the Pirates in saves.
The theory was right. Watson and Hudson weren’t particularly great and Glasnow struggled to command his stuff. But the Pirates found a gem in Felipe Rivero to solve their 9th innings woes rather than turning to the struggling Glasnow.
San Diego Padres
Erm…… The Padres look brutal on paper. Barely a major league outfit. But there’s some intrigue in the outfield. And Margot and Jankowski will steal more bases than any NL player not named Hamilton, combining for 100.
Margot hasn’t been the base stealing threat most hoped for and although he hit the DL for a period, he still wouldn’t have stolen much more than the 17 he achieved. Jankowski was brutal to start the year managing just a .160 average in his 50 at-bats before his demotion. Even a recall late in the year wasn’t enough to get close on this one.
San Francisco Giants
Joe Panik will win the batting title.
Again, Panik struggled with health for part of the season, but his average was .375 in September so you can see why I said this despite him finishing the year with a sub .300 average. Only Buster Posey had a better average on the Giants roster.
Edwin Diaz ends the year as fantasy’s no.1 reliever.
Most of the opportunities I expected were there. The strikeouts were there. But the young hurler struggled for periods and his 3.27 ERA held him back from breaking into the top tier of closers, finishing 12th among closers on the ESPN player-rater.
St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Martinez wins the NL Cy Young award.
He’s been good. Very good for some parts. But too many stinkers have prevented Martinez to be in CY Young consideration this year. Still only 26, Martinez has become a top pitcher in fantasy still.
Tampa Bay Rays
Kiermaier and Souza Jr will have 20/20 seasons.
Not a million miles away (Souza 30/16 and Kiermaier 15/16) but Kiermaier’s lengthy layoff and Souza still not being quite as big a threat as I hoped for stalled this prediction.
Sam Dyson gets fewer saves than Matt Bush and Jeremy Jeffress.
I was right, that’s what happened! Well kinda.
Dyson was brutal, blowing four saves to start the year and then was traded away before he registered one save for the Rangers. Bush recorded 10 saves, then struggled and then got hurt. Jeffress didn’t manage a save before he was traded back to the Brewers and struggled so much he wasn’t considered for the 9th inning in Texas.
But Dyson got 0. And you can’t get fewer saves than that so it’s another tick in the win column. Well kinda.
Toronto Blue Jays
Kendrys Morales is the only hitter in the Top 100 hitters for fantasy value.
Well Justin Smoak managed to make the top 60 for hitters on the ESPN player-rater (finishing 59th) and a late surge by Josh Donaldson saw him sneak into the top 100 (at 89th). Morales on the other hand wound up 135th (behind Kevin Pillar in 132nd) so a pretty much all-round fail on this one.
Trea Turner wins NL MVP
Tuner got hurt. But despite playing less than 100 games this year (98), Turner still found himself 20th amongst batters on the ESPN player-rater so would certainly have been in consideration if he stayed healthy.
So that’s it. My outsider to win the World Series was the Detroit Tigers so the less said about that the better.
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