Total Run Index: Starting Pitchers
Those that have been following my index series will notice how I treat starting pitchers differently. We should note this before we move onto the “grand table” as I am want to call it. Pitching is the most difficult position to get a handle on in fantasy baseball and in real baseball for that matter. Pitchers are fickle and subject to the defensive support and run support of their teams. The rise and fall of certain pitchers can be explained by bad luck, poor defense, sudden injuries, or other nefarious forces we can’t quite understand or predict.
When you look at the list that follows you will note the absence of several pitchers that figure prominently in fantasy baseball (or have in the past). The biggest name missing is that of Tim Lincecum. The two-time Cy Young Award winner could have recieved what I would call the Anthony Young award in 2012. Baseball Prospectus had him at -1.8 PVORP (pitching value over replacement player). That means a typical AAA starter would have been nearly two runs better. Total Run Index is measured against the average player, so you can only imagine how many runs below average he was.
Total Run Index is able to do a lot of things. The best use of total run index is to manage risk. It manages risks by taking a snapshot of a player’s career over time to isolate trends in offensive and defensive performance. For pitchers it can limit risk some, but nothing can completely predict the future accurately. Tim Lincecum will almost certainly not be as bad as he was last season. However, the odds are against him rebounding to his former Cy Young self. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen though. We are simply working with likelihoods.
I decided to rank the top 60 pitchers according to TRI for one main reason. Most fantasy league have between 10 and 12 teams and so 60 pitchers represents either the top six or top five pitchers you could add to your team in such a league. Like with the NCAA tournament and the BCS, there will always be controversies over which names (or teams) are left out. When we make such a list we simply acknowledge this fact and move on. Naturally, if anyone wants to engage me over a beer over why this guy or that guy was left out I welcome that opportunity. Just know that when you put someone on the list you must remove someone from it. So, what follows are the top 60 pitchers according to aggregate TRI scores.
[am4show have=’p3;p4;’ guest_error=’Front Office’ user_error=’Front Office’ ]
|
Team |
2012 |
3YR |
5YR |
Comments |
|
| Josh Beckett | Dodgers |
0.9 |
5.0 |
13.8 |
Seemed to find himself in LA, but stuff is definitely on the decline. |
| Chad Billingsley | Dodgers |
4.1 |
4.7 |
7.9 |
He’s good when healthy, but that hasn’t happened in awhile. |
| Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays |
1.6 |
9.9 |
13.5 |
Durability is top notch and a good offense will get you cheap wins. |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants |
5.8 |
9.0 |
—– |
Good home ballpark hides some pedestrian numbers. |
| A.J. Burnett | Pirates |
12.3 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
He’s all over the map but seems to perform well on small stage. |
| Trevor Cahill | Dbacks |
9.7 |
7.2 |
—– |
An underrated hurler that should thrive at the bottom of the rotation |
| Main Cain | Giants |
15.5 |
18.0 |
18.2 |
Was given ace money but he’s not really an ace. Don’t overvalue him. |
| Aroldis Chapman | Reds |
11.6 |
3.8 |
—– |
Tantalizing stuff, but he will likely end up back in the bullpen. |
| Wei Yen Chen | Orioles |
6.1 |
—– |
—– |
What will happen with him in year two? Your guess is as good as mine. |
| Johnny Cueto | Reds |
23.6 |
13.7 |
6.5 |
Two healthy seasons in a row may be enough to bet on. |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers |
24.9 |
—– |
—– |
Pitches in a horrible environment but someone that should improve. |
| Ryan Dempster | Red Sox |
14.6 |
9.6 |
13.5 |
Is moving to the toughest division in baseball. Buyer beware. |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays |
25.8 |
14.0 |
2.5 |
Has been solid for several seasons, but 2012 will be tough to repeat. |
| Michael Fiers | Brewers |
10.5 |
—– |
—– |
Is getting by on smoke and mirrors. That magic trick has an expiration date. |
| Doug Fister | Tigers |
13.4 |
14.1 |
—– |
His TRI numbers are a little depressed. I really like this guy. |
| Gavin Floyd | White Sox |
3.3 |
11.1 |
12.2 |
Poor health cost him last year, so he could play up this year. |
| Yovani Gallardo | Brewers |
7.5 |
12.4 |
7.5 |
Has always been billed like a staff ace, but he really isn’t |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals |
3.6 |
4.5 |
—– |
As a fifth starter on your fantasy team he isn’t half bad. Interchangeable. |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals |
27.0 |
19.2 |
4.8 |
He loves the NL East and that division is getting worse. |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers |
20.6 |
16.3 |
28.1 |
His peripherals have always been better than actual performance. |
| Roy Halladay | Phillies |
-1.7 |
25.7 |
33.2 |
Inexplicably struggled last year but should be dominant self this year. |
| Cole Hamels | Phillies |
20.9 |
22.2 |
20.6 |
I hate long-term deals but track record shows he should be good for now. |
| Jason Hammel | Orioles |
11.1 |
1.8 |
-1.5 |
At sea level he has always been a solid pitcher and should continue to be. |
| Dan Haren | Nationals |
-7.1 |
11.8 |
22.0 |
Injuries cost him last year, so he should resemble the three year average. |
| Matt Harrison | Rangers |
20.3 |
7.6 |
-1.7 |
Like Darvish, the stadium hides good results, but he is growing. |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Rays |
10.2 |
7.8 |
—– |
The Rays defense hides a multitude of sins. |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners |
31.4 |
28.2 |
27.4 |
Single dumbest contract of the offseason, but he will earn it in 2013. |
| Edwin Jackson | Cubs |
2.6 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
Always looks like he should be better than what he is. Don’t overdraft. |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Indians |
-14.4 |
11.2 |
16.0 |
Could be changed with another fallen star, but a good rebound candidate. |
| Josh Johnson | Blue Jays |
14.4 |
17.9 |
17.5 |
Year two away from arm problems could be better than year one. |
| Ian Kennedy | Dbacks |
7.6 |
13.0 |
1.3 |
2012 is likely a better predictor of future performance than 2011. |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers |
30.1 |
31.3 |
22.1 |
Arguably the second best pitcher in baseball behind Verlander. |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees |
19.8 |
13.8 |
8.6 |
Quietly turned in a brilliant season last year, but is in his upper thirties. |
| Mat Latos | Reds |
12.5 |
13.0 |
—– |
Seemed to find himself once the calendar turned to June. Hope for more |
| Cliff Lee | Phillies |
24.2 |
32.9 |
36.8 |
Ignore the lack of wins, the Lord of WHIP is great for the other stats. |
| Jon Lester | Red Sox |
3.3 |
15.9 |
23.6 |
The Curse of Valentine inflicted most of the squad. Ignore 2012 numbers. |
| Kyle Lohse | Free Agent |
15.2 |
-0.5 |
2.0 |
He will land somewhere. The landing spot will determine his value. |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals |
11.4 |
—– |
—– |
Was 2012 a fluke? Roll the dice and find out. |
| Kris Medlen | Braves |
18.7 |
0.1 |
—– |
In a lot of ways, his final TRI score isn’t a bad predictor. |
| Wade Miley | Dbacks |
18.3 |
—– |
—– |
May get lost in the shuffle when all the prospects are ready to go. |
| Tom Milone | Athletics |
7.1 |
—– |
—– |
There were some extreme home/road splits last season. Take note. |
| Matt Moore | Rays |
6.5 |
—– |
—– |
People thought he would explode last season. Maybe 2013 is the year. |
| Brandon Morrow | Blue Jays |
8.9 |
9.3 |
1.4 |
Might even be superior to Buerhle and Johnson before it’s all said and done. |
| Ricky Nolasco | Marlins |
3.2 |
3.0 |
6.3 |
Only has true fantasy value outside of Florida. |
| Jarrod Parker | Athletics |
16.4 |
—– |
—– |
Should continue to produce around where he did last season. |
| Jake Peavy | White Sox |
24.7 |
9.0 |
9.3 |
2012 may have been the last hurrah for a once great right-hander. |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees |
0.3 |
8.9 |
14.4 |
He always seemed to have a knack for winning which can help you. |
| David Price | Rays |
29.6 |
25.0 |
11.8 |
Unlike Shields, he really is a staff ace. |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Pirates |
4.7 |
5.7 |
9.6 |
He is in slow, steady decline, but still can be of some use to you. |
| C.C. Sabathia | Yankees |
23.0 |
31.0 |
36.6 |
The most durable pitcher in baseball is a horse for your team. |
| Chris Sale | White Sox |
29.7 |
6.0 |
—– |
Will there be a hangover? If not, he is top ten fantasy SP material. |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers |
13.3 |
15.3 |
4.9 |
How much of a boost will he get from being the fourth SP on a great team? |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers |
26.7 |
16.1 |
10.3 |
Simply put, the most underrated guy on the whole SP list. |
| James Shields | Royals |
10.2 |
10.7 |
12.0 |
The Rays make average pitchers look good. The Royals make good pitchers… |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals |
19.4 |
-4.9 |
—– |
TRI doesn’t do him any favors, but he still hasn’t hurled 200 innings yet. |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers |
44.5 |
42.9 |
36.7 |
If he isn’t the top pitcher on your board you aren’t paying attention. |
| Adam Wainright | Cardinals |
11.0 |
9.2 |
13.2 |
He should be ready to dominate again and the Cards need every bit of it. |
| Jered Weaver | Angels |
9.6 |
28.8 |
24.9 |
When someone outperforms their TRI it is a horrible portend of things to come. |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels |
-0.7 |
17.4 |
7.4 |
He isn’t this bad but he was also never that good. |
| Jordan Zimmerman | Nationals |
18.6 |
4.3 |
—– |
Too many people sleep on this guy in favor of Gonzalez and Strasburg. |
You can follow Scott Barzilla on twitter at @sbarzilla.
[/am4show]
The Author
