Fantasy BasketballFront OfficeJosh Kay

2014-15 Fantasy Basketball Daily Fix, December 12th

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 What’s in this edition?

Full Game Breakdowns of:

  • DET/PHX
  • LAC/WSH
  • PHI/BKN (you won’t want to miss this one)
  • NY/BOS
  • CLE/NO
  • Positional and Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings
  • Positional Price-Adjusted GPP Option rankings
  • All for just $1 !

Finally, for important updates, use our NBA Beat Reporter Follow List:

Top Games:

Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns – Start Time 9:00 PM – O/U 204, Phoenix (-9.5)

Notable stats:

  • The Pistons rank 6th in percentage of points in the paint
  • The Suns rank 28th in points in the paint given up per game (46.5) — only Boston and Minnesota are worse.
  • Detroit gives up the most opponent rebounds per 100 possessions (47.4)
  • The Suns rank 3rd in points off turnovers per 100 possessions
  • The Pistons rank 8th in committing the fewest turnovers per 100 possessions
  • The Suns have the fifth lowest free throw attempt rate

SPIN (DET): I’m quite surprised by this line. I think the Pistons keep this one close because they are good at things that Phoenix can’t stop (shots inside). Josh Smith ( $7,700, SF ) is a fantastic GPP play. He’s due for a big game, and is always a good candidate in a game that will be played at a higher pace. Furthermore, Phoenix is small up front, which gives Smith an advantage in that he’ll likely see more court time (if he can stay out of foul trouble). Greg Monroe ( $7,200, PF ) is frustrating to own since he basically only rebounds and scores points. He’s hard to recommend at his current price point, but he should score fine tonight. Jodie Meeks ( $3,700, SG ) will make his season debut tonight, presumably off the bench. His role is incredibly unclear, and his return is more of a warning sign to anyone thinking of using Detroit wingmen, rather than it being an interesting spot to use him.

SPIN ( PHX): An uptempo game against a team that allows the most rebounds to opposing teams is a perfect spot to use Eric Bledsoe ( $8,300, SG ) especially coming off his disappointing (but predicted ) follow-up attempt against Miami. Shooting guard isn’t usually a good spot to spend unless it’s on a multi-category monster like Bledsoe. If you’re spending at the 2 guard, spend it here. I really, really hate chasing big games, but if Marcus Morris ( $4,100, PF ) earned his way back into the starting lineup after his monster game against Miami, he needs to be considered. Kyle Singler is a terrible defender and Morris should have his way with lousy Detroit wings all night — if he can get the minutes, since his brother Markieff Morris is likely to struggle against the defense of Josh Smith.

An important note about this game is that we cannot take anything away from the previous meeting between these clubs because Josh Smith was still starting at the “3” at that time.

Summary:

All Games: Eric Bledsoe – SG

GPP Only: Alex Len – C, Josh Smith – SF, Marcus Morris – PF, Isaiah Thomas – PG (expected to return)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Washington Wizards – Start Time 7:00 PM, O/U 204, Line – Clippers (-2.5)

Notable stats:

  • The Wizards rank 2nd in assist ratio, and the Clippers rank 3rd
  • The Clippers give up the fourth fewest offense rebounds per 100 possessions, and the Wizards give up the sixth fewest
  • The Clippers rank 29th in points in the paint per 100 possessions

SPIN (LAC): The Clippers offense has two main dimensions and two sub dimensions. The main dimensions are obviously Blake Griffin ( $10,300, PF ) and Chris Paul ( $10,000, PG ). The sub dimensions of J.J. Redick ( $4,300, SG ) and Deandre Jordan ( $7,700, C ) could struggle mightily in this one, since the Wizards are 3rd best against shooting guards and Marcin Gortat is a good rim protector. For this reason, Paul and Griffin are actually a neat (but expensive ) mini stack in a GPP since they are likely to be providing the vast bulk of production for Los Angeles. I’m not certain yet if I’ll build around either for cash games, but they are certainly safe enough for it — but whether using them is proper safety+upside maximization remains to be seen.

SPIN (WAS): It’s safe to say that John Wall ( $10,400, PG ) will be playing the role of facilitator tonight, given that Chris Paul will be shadowing his every move. I expect a ton of screen based offense tonight for the Wizards, starting with high pick and rolls from Wall/Marcin Gortat in order to try and lure Deandre Jordan from the bucket. I’m not on Gortat too much because while I think he will be effective, I do expect him to be the one setting screens for Bradley Beal ( $5,800, SG ) and Paul Pierce ( $5,100, SF ) as Washington looks to exploit the Clippers poor wing defense. Rasual Butler ( $3,100, SG ) is a fantastic play in GPPs, and is probably even safe for cash games against a Clippers second unit that routinely gets obliterated — see Luis Scola, Lavoy Allen and CJ Miles last game

Summary:

All Games: Chris Paul – PG, Blake Griffin – PF, Paul Pierce – SF, Rasual Butler – SG

GPP Only: Bradley Beal – SG

Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets – Start Time 7:30 – O/U 196 – Line: Nets (-7.5)

Notable stats:

  • Philadelphia ranks 29th in effective FG%
  • Philadelphia ranks 1st in percentage of points in the paint ( 47.9% )
  • Philadelphia ranks 30th in right corner 3-point field goal percentage (15.9%) and 12th in left corner 3-point field goal percentage
  • Brooklyn ranks 26th in opponent right corner 3-point field goal percentage, and 3rd in opponent left corner 3-point field goal percentage ( just 25.4%)

SPIN (PHI): This game is in here specifically because people need to be extremely careful here with the 76ers. Tony Wroten ( $5,800, PG ) returns to the lineup, while K.J. McDaniels ( $5,900, SF ) will also play. McDaniels had been reporting pain and was initially questionable, but he will in fact play. Wroten, when he played alongside Michael Carter-Williams ( $9,100, PG ), MCW had been starting at the “2”. This was before KJ McDaniels forced his way into getting more playing time. McDaniels plays the “2” almost exclusively, so there will be a minutes crisis in this game between Carter-Williams, Wroten, McDaniels, Alexey Shved, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Hollis Thompson. 

The one Sixer that I truly LOVE is Robert Covington ( $3,800, PF ). With Brandon Davies having just been traded, Covington has very little competition ( Jakarr Sampson and Jerami Grant don’t count ) now for the primary backup power forward spot. At this point, the Sixers will be going primarily with a 3-player big man rotation of Covington, Nerlens Noel and Henry Sims. Noel also plays as the backup center, so we will see a lot of Covington tonight (especially when the Nets go small with Kevin Garnett off the court). Covington is a mortal lock for 25 minutes, and he could easily see 30-35 if Sims rides the pine when the Nets go small — which he should. 

SPIN (BKN): Mirza Teletovic ( $5,600, PF) practiced on Thursday and is therefore likely going to play against the 76ers. He should be good, especially if he starts. He’s a strong cash game play, but a prudent tournament fade due to ownership and chance that his hip pointer or facial contusion injuries are re-aggravated. Joe Johnson ( $6,500 ) is back in the lineup, which should help the Nets significantly. Johnson is a risky at-best proposition, and with Jimmy Butler only $400 more, and Bradley Beal $700 less, is an unnecessary risk, even in tournaments.

Summary:

All Games: Robert Covington – PF, Mirza Teletovic – PF (if he starts)

GPP Only: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute – SF, Tony Wroten – PG

New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics – Game Start 7:30 PM – O/U 201 – Line Celtics (-7)

Notable stats:

  • The Celtics give up the 2nd highest 3-point field goal percentage ( 38.9%)
  • The Celtics and Knicks are 29th and 30th in free throw attempt rate, respectively
  • The Celtics have the top ranked mid-range field goal percentage defense at 34.9%
  • The Knicks attempt the second most mid range shots, and have the 8th highest FG% on them ( 41,9%)
  • The Knicks rank 1st in percentage of points made from mid range (27.9%)

SPIN (NYK): With Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith doubtful, it will be the Tim Hardaway Jr ( $4,200, SG) and Amare Stoudemire ( $5,900, PF) show. Hardaway will likely start at the small forward spot and draw the lousy defense of Jeff Green, while Amare will abuse the Celtics inside (as teams have done to them all year). They are auto-plays for cash games, as they will shoulder the vast majority of the Knicks scoring load, and total shot attempts.

Additionally, Iman Shumpert is questionable, as he received x-rays on his right index finger following their loss to the Spurs. If he is out, this makes Pablo Prigioni ( $3,000, PG) very usable since he’ll play a large complement of minutes.

SPIN (BOS): Evan Turner ( $4,500, SF) is long overdue for an explosive performance. This is a game that he can do very well in, and is a very intriguing GPP play. Jeff Green ( $6,500, SF) is a strong play and is usable in GPPs, but not cash since he does nothing but score. Kelly Olynyk ( $3,900, C) is still a fantastic GPP option until his price increases again, and Marcus Thornton ( $3,000, SG ) is quietly stealing minutes from Avery Bradley, so Thornton is a decent GPP option and a good pivot in lineups where you dont have Rasual Butler.

Summary:

All Games: Tim Hardaway Jr- SG, Amare Stoudemire – PF

GPP Only: Jeff Green – SF, Evan Turner – SF, Kelly Olynyk – C, Marcus Thornton – SG, Pablo Prigioni – PG (if Shumpert is out)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans – Start Time 8:00 PM

Notable CHANGES since these teams first met on November 10th:

  • Cleveland was missing Matthew Delavadova and Dion Waiters.
  • Tristan Thompson had a smaller role in the rotation
  • Eric Gordon was healthy, and played 31 minutes

The only way to accurately predict this game is to go ahead with the assumption that Lebron James WILL play.

SPIN (CLE): There is absolutely nobody on this team who can guard Lebron James ( $11,300, SF) and if the Cavs and Lebron were overplaying the injury, he could go bananas tonight. However, I’m likely not paying for him. Kyrie Irving ( $9,000, PG) will probably be worth paying for, but in GPPs only. Obviously if Lebron sits, Matthew Dellavadova ( $3,000, PG ) is the easiest play in the history of the universe for cash and GPPs. Kevin Love ( $8,800, PF ) is a superb play if Lebron is out, and Tristan Thompson ( $5,400, PF ) is a solid GPP option.

SPIN (NO): Anthony Davis ( $11,200 ) was shadowed by Anderson Varejao for most of the first game. When Varejao was glued to him, In fact, in the first half, five of Davis’s six field goal attempts (not including full court heave to end 1st Q) were jump shots. Davis got more involved offensively in the second half, especially late when he was guarded by Shawn Marion. Brow should be huge tonight, as they will need his production (especially if Lebron plays ) to keep up with Cleveland. Tyreke Evans ( $7,000 ) drew the unfortunate assignment of Lebron in the first game, and will likely draw Shawn Marion tonight. Ryan Anderson ( $5,700, PF ) went absolutely bananas the first time these teams met, and will most likely do so again — especially since he shoots a full 10 % better at home from 3-point land. He’s a great GPP target, as is Jrue Holiday ( $7,800, PG). 

Don’t combined Tyreke and Brow in the same lineup. If you use Tyreke, then you are expecting him to take a ton of shots and be very effective — something that would almost certainly limit Brow’s upside.

Summary:

All Games: Anthony Davis – PF, Matthew Dellavadova – PG ( IF Lebron sits ), Kevin Love – PF (if Lebron sits ), Kyrie Irving – PG ( if Lebron sits )

GPP Only: Lebron James – SF, Ryan Anderson – PF, Jrue Holiday – PG, Tyreke Evans – SG

Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings:

Point Guard:

  1. Matthew Dellavadova – $3,000 (only if Lebron is out)
  2. Mario Chalmers – $5,700 ( Wade is doubtful )
  3. Chris Paul – $10,000
  4. Kyle Lowry – $9,800

Shooting Guard:

  1. Tim Hardaway Jr – $4,200
  2. Rasual Butler – $3,100
  3. Jimmy Butler – $6,900
  4. Eric Bledsoe – $8,300

Small Forward:

  1. Paul Pierce – $5,100
  2. Tobias Harris – $6,700 ( if Vucevic is back. Harris has a much better rebounding rate with Vuc in, because of where he plays on the court defensively. Also, the Magic are higher tempo with Vuc in)
  3. Lebron James – $11,300 ( if he plays, obviously)
  4. DeMarre Carroll – $5,700
  5. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute – $4,400

Power Forward:

  1. Amar’e Stoudemire – $5,900
  2. Mirza Teletovic – $5,600 ( if he starts )
  3. Pau Gasol – $9,200 ( if he plays )
  4. Anthony Davis – $11,200
  5. Robert Covington – $3,800
  6. Kevin Love – $8,800 (if Lebron is out move him to #3)

Center:

  1. Kyle O’Quinn – $4,900 – ONLY if Vucevic is out
  2. Chris Bosh – $8,200
  3. Jonas Valenciunas – $5,500
  4. Enes Kanter- $6,200
  5. Marc Gasol – $8,500

GPP Suggestions:

Point Guard:

  1. Isaiah Thomas – $5,600
  2. Tony Wroten – $5,800
  3. Derrick Rose – $6,500
  4. Reggie Jackson – $6,000

Shooting Guard:

  1. Bradley Beal – $5,800
  2. Jeremy Lamb – $4,100
  3. Anthony Morrow – $3,300
  4. Tyreke Evans – $7,000
  5. Marcus Thornton – $3,000

Small Forward:

  1. Josh Smith – $7,700
  2. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute – $4,400
  3. Mike Dunleavy – $4,500
  4. Evan Turner – $4,500
  5. Andrew Wiggins – $5,400
  6. Jeff Adrien – $3,000

Power Forward:

  1. Robert Covington – $3,800
  2. Amar’e Stoudemire – $5,600
  3. Blake Griffin – $10,300
  4. Marcus Morris – $4,100

Center:

  1. Kelly Olynyk – $3,900
  2. Lavoy Allen – $3,000
  3. Alex Len – $3,000
  4. Mike Muscala – $3,000

 

 

 

 

 

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