2013 Fantasy FootballBrett TalleyFantasy Football

2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix, November 19th: Week 12 WR Daily Fantasy Strategy

Daily Fantasy Baseball Fix

Coming up in today’s daily fix I discuss Chris Ogbonnaya, Michael Floyd and Coby Fleener, and I have some week 12 wide receiver recommendations for DraftKings contests (#DFS).

News and Notes

  • There’s obviously going to be a lot of FAAB money spent on Booby Rainey this week, but if you’re low on free agent cash (or you’re low in the waiver order) and need a guy, you should take a look at Chris Ogbonnaya in PPR leagues (owned in 7.7% of ESPN leagues). He may be taking on a Darren Sproles/Danny Woodhead type role in Cleveland. He was targeted 12 times this week and caught six balls for 30 yards. He also carried the ball eight times for 69 yards. And he has a really nice schedule to close out the year. Aside from the Jets in week 16, the Browns will face a team that is bottom 11 in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to running backs.
  • Almost exactly one month after our own Adam Ganeles portended that Michael Floyd was “on the precipice of beast mode,” he went off for 193 yards and a score. I was on him as well as I recommended him in this very article in the two games prior to his breakout this week. And I traded Justin Blackmon for him and Greg Olsen right after Blackmon returned and put up 136 yards and a score in his first game back. My point is that I was a believer and I obviously still am. He’s available in about 35% of ESPN leagues, so add him if he’s still out there. He’s probably a top 20 play the next two weeks with great matchups against the Eagles and the Colts. And he has a decent matchup with the Rams in week 14. But his usefulness will end there as he has the Titans, Seahawks and 49ers to finish the season.
  • Coby Fleener has been targeted ten times in each of the last two weeks and faces the Cardinals this week who have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Needless to say, he should be owned in way more than the 50% of ESPN leagues that he’s owned in right now.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations

Week 11 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a 50/50 this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.

Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:

  • 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
  • Reception = +1PT
  • Receiving TD = +6PTs
  • 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
  • Fumble Lost = -1PT
  • 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs

Below I’ve got options in several different price ranges. This will allow you some flexibility when building your team depending on what you would like to do at other positions.

Luxury Option

Vincent Jackson, $7,700 – VJax has thrived in good matchups and struggled in bad ones. Almost every player follows that pattern to some degree, but Jackson has done it to an extreme degree. Below is a chart showing how he’s performed relative to the strength of his opponent and a graph showing the correlation between his performance and matchup.

vjax chartvjax

Jackson faces the Lions this week who rank 30th against receivers. He’s as safe a bet as any to have a huge day, and you can get him for only the seventh highest price.

Reasonable Options

Josh Gordon, $6,500 – Gordon is averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game since his return in week three which places him squarely in WR1 territory on a per game basis. He’s been targeted consistently by Jason Campbell and has 100+ yards and a score in two of three games with Campbell at QB. His matchup with the Steelers may look tough, but the Steelers have faced one of the easiest schedules for a pass D in the league. So I’m all over a guy I think is a top ten receiver who is only the 14th most expensive receiver of the week.

Michael Floyd, $5,700 – I think we covered this.

Cheap Option

Kenny Stills, $5,000 – Stills is boom or bust, but that isn’t the worst thing in daily fantasy contests. If he booms, he’s going to return some nice value on this price. He’s got a good chance to boom against a Falcons team that has allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game to receivers.

Cheapest Guy I Can Recommend

Ace Sanders, $3,000 – Normally there is a receiver going for the minimum price each week that I’d be willing to take a shot on if I was trying to win a top-heavy contest. Sanders is just the best of a weak lot this week. He got some regular usage early in the year prior to Justin Blackmon’s presence in the lineup, and he got 10 targets last week. So if you’re looking to take a shot on a cheap player to spend big elsewhere, Sanders is about the best I recommend. But I’d try to go cheap at different positions this week.

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