2013 Fantasy Football Daily Fix, October 15th: Week 7 WR Daily Fantasy Strategy
News and Notes
- Keenan Allen is legit. He now has at least 80 yards in each of the last three weeks and has a touchdown in the last two. His upcoming schedule is just cake, too. He’ll get the Jaguars this week, and after his bye in week 8 he’ll get Washington and Denver. Things will get a little tougher after that, but he’s at the very least a top 30 receiver and probably better in his next three games. He’s available in 93% of ESPN standard leagues.
- Randall Cobb is out six to eight weeks with a fractured fibula. James Jones appears to have a knee sprain but it’s possible he’ll be available on Sunday. You’ll see Jarrett Boykin in a lot of waiver wire pickup articles this week, but I’m not overly interested in him unless we find out that Jones is going to miss significant time. In my 12-team leagues I’ll be holding onto guys like the aforementioned Allen, Brian Hartline, Mike Williams, Michael Floyd and Terrance Williams as opposed to dropping them for Boykin. In other words, I don’t think he’s a top 40 receiver.
- Brandon Jacobs is alive! We’ve now seen his best game of the year and David Wilson will be back soon, so Jacobs isn’t a top 30 running back the rest of the way. But he is going to have value over the next couple of weeks with good matchups against the Eagles and Vikings. If you need to add an RB to start immediately, Jacobs is your guy as he’s available in virtually all leagues. Feel free to drop names like Bilal Powell, Darren McFadden, Joique Bell (unless you own Reggie), BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Rashard Mendenhall and Pierre Thomas for Jacobs.
- Speaking of dropping Mendenhall, you should go ahead and do that. Mendenhall is owned in 92% of leagues while his backup, Andre Ellington is owned in just 9% of leagues. But Ellington is clearly the more productive player. The problem has been Mendenhall getting more work, but Ellington actually got 12 touches to Mendenhall’s 11 this week thanks to Ellington’s involvemenet in the passing game. Go ahead and make that switch before someone else snatches up Ellington.
- Joseph Fauria is not a fantasy option. After his three touchdown performance on Sunday he know has seven catches, five touchdowns and 66 yards. He’ll likely continue to get red zone looks, but the risk of getting a goose egg is too great. In three of his six games Fauria has failed to record a catch. And even in the two games prior to this week where he caught touchdown passes he only recorded six and eight fantasy points. You would be much better off adding guys who get consistent targets like Charles Clay (31% owned), Heath Miller (20% owned) or Jordan Reed (4% owned).
DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations
Week 6 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a Triple Up! this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.
Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:
- 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
- Reception = +1PT
- Receiving TD = +6PTs
- 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
- Fumble Lost = -1PT
- 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs
Below I’ve got options in several different price ranges. This will allow you some flexibility when building your team depending on what you would like to do at other positions.
Dez Bryant, $8,800 – I feel like I recommend Dez every single week, but it’s been hard not to given his ridiculous string of good matchups lately. He was quiet last week, but I can’t help but go back to the well with him facing an Eagles team that was allowing the most fantasy points per games to receivers prior to last week. And they should remain at or near the top of the list after allowing Vincent Jackson to score twice against them last week.
DeSean Jackson, $7,700 – The Cowboys are a pretty good matchup for receivers themselves, and Jackson has been outstanding this year. It was good to see him have success with Nick Foles at quarterback so that concern has been alleviated.
Josh Gordon $6,600 – The analysis I gave on DJax could essentially be repeated here. He’s been outstanding this year, he has a good matchup against the Packers, and he performed well last week with a quarterback we were somewhat concerned with.
Torrey Smith, $6,000 – Week 6 was a wildly disappointing week for Smith owners. He had seen at least eight targets in each game prior to last week and was averaging over ten per game. And he had at least 85 yards in each game. Then, in a good matchup with a Green Bay pass defense that had struggled to that point, he was only targeted four times and caught only one ball for 12 yards. As a result, DraftKings has him priced as only the 21st most expensive receiver this week. And that’s totally absurd given that Smith is still top 12 in fantasy points for the year among receivers and given that he has a less than intimidating matchup with Pittsburgh this week.
Keenan Allen, $4,600 – Allen is the 44th most expensive receiver this week, but as mentioned above he’s a top 30 option at worst this week.
Terrance Williams, $4,300 – Williams didn’t get as much work with Miles Austin back in the lineup last week, but he did manage to find the end zone. His upside would obviously be higher sans Austin, but as mentioned this is a good matchup. He’s only the 50th most expensive receiver this week, and I think his chances of being a top 30 guy are much better than his chances of being outside the top 50.
Cheapest Guys I Can Recommend
Ace Sanders, $3,000 – This is the cheapest amount that players go for on DraftKings, and Sanders could potentially out-earn this price if Cecil Shorts misses this week. Before Justin Blackmon’s return in week 5, Sanders was working as the second receiver in Jacksonville, and he racked up 28 targets in those four games. He didn’t do a ton with those looks, but the Jags faced three top ten pass defenses in those four weeks. But this week they’ll face the Chargers who were allowing 28 fantasy points per game to receivers prior to keeping the Colts in check on Monday night.
Cole Beasley, $3,000 – Have I mentioned that I like the matchup for Dallas receivers this week?