Front Office

Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: July 7, 2015

Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 15-game slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, and we have rankings of the top plays at each position.

Forecast

Rain was a factor on Monday, though the only game to be postponed was in Kansas City, and delays were not as common as originally expected. There’s rain in the forecast again today, but it’s too early to rule out any players based on rain concerns. Games to watch are those in Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Denver.

Given how often forecasts change between the time this post is written late the night before and when games actually start, make sure to follow @KevinRothWx for updates.

Pitching Perspective

As always, let’s start with the most expensive starters of the day ($9,000). Actually, let’s start with the ultra-expensive starters of the day, Max Scherzer ($14,200) and Corey Kluber ($11,200). It should be no surprise that these are the highest projected pitchers of the day, and it should be no surprise that Kluber is the much better play given he’s $3,000 cheaper. My model has his projection slightly higher than Scherzer’s, so Kluber is your top pitching option of the day easily. He’s worth his price tag.

Among the other pricey options, Johnny Cueto ($10,100) and Tyson Ross ($9,300) have similar projections and value grades. I’ll be on Kluber for the most part (as long as rain doesn’t get in the way), so I don’t know if I’ll roster either Cueto or Ross given the expense of pairing them with Kluber. Were I to have to choose one of them, I’d likely lean toward Cueto, especially in cash games. Ross’ 12 percent walk rate makes him a GPP-only play for me. Plus, rain is as big of a worry in Pittsburgh as it is in Cleveland.

In the mid-price range ($7,000-$9,000), Matt Cain ($7,000) is your man. He admittedly wasn’t great in his first start back from the DL last week, but my model has him with the best projection and best value grade in this price range. The variables of matchup (Mets) and ball park (at home) couldn’t be more favorable, so this is most likely where I would look for salary relief.

If you want to take a flier on a very cheap option in a GPP, good luck. I originally had Matt Moore and Tim Cooney listed as potential fliers (though not ones I’d be taking), but it appears they’re set to pitch the early games of double headers. MLB.com had them as the late starters as of this writing, but Vegas has them as the early probables. If they’re not available in this slate, I’d just pay up for pitching. Actually, I’d do that even if they were.

Here are our projections for today’s starters. You’ll see each starter’s salary, the average number of fantasy points the starter is projected to score per game and how far above or below average his projection is compared to his salary in the value column. You’ll also see adjustments being made for matchup and ballpark. As for the colors, they rank as follows from good to bad: purple, blue, green, yellow, orange, red, burgundy.

Stack Options

We’re back in Coors after 11 straight days without having a Coors game on the slate. It was nice, wasn’t it? I hate Coors, but you simply have to have exposure to that game. Seven Rockies rank in the top 60 of my projections. They’re facing left-hander Andrew Heaney, so their lefties like Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon don’t have great value grades. But their right-handers like Tulo, Rosario and even Drew Stubbs (if he plays) represent good value. Rostering Arenado will also be hard to pass up.

As for the Angels, their offensive outburst against Texas over the weekend along with the Coors bump have made their price tags tough to handle. With a lack of good cheap pitching options tonight, it may be hard to pay for Angels. But if you want to find a way to make it work, it’s very hard to fade the top half of that order right now.

In the interest of finding value given a preference for pricier pitching, I could make the case for going back to the well with the Dodgers after they were such an obvious stack on a semi-short slate last night. AGonz, Joc and Puig all have excellent value grades being priced under $4,000, and they’re facing Chad Billingsley. Jimmy Rollins and Yasmani Grandal are also very cheap, so a Dodgers stack could free up the cash necessary to roster the pitchers you want. That said, I’m very close to swearing off Rollins.

Another value option and likely a contrarian play would be to go with Mets lefties. Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy and Curtis Granderson cost a combined $10,600, so that mini-stack would certainly free up some cash. I mentioned above that my model likes Cain against the Mets, but he’s obviously far from reliable right now. I will probably hedge my Cain play with some Mets exposure.

You can view and download our hitter projections here. These projections are an average of what each hitter is projected to do on a per game basis according to the ZiPS rest-of-season projections. The projections have then been adjusted for splits, quality of the opposing starting pitcher and ballpark.

Player Rankings

Catcher

  1. Wilin Rosario – $3,600 – Colorado Rockies
  2. Jonathan Lucroy – $4,200 – Milwaukee Brewers
  3. Michael McKenry – $3,200 – Colorado Rockies

First Base

  1. Albert Pujols – $5,600 – Los Angeles Angels
  2. Adrian Gonzalez – $3,800 – Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Joey Votto – $3,700 – Cincinnati Reds

Second Base

  1. D.J. Lemahieu – $3,800 – Colorado Rockies
  2. Daniel Murphy – $3,400 – New York Mets
  3. Jason Kipnis – $5,100 – Cleveland Indians

Third Base

  1. Nolan Arenado – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies
  2. Kris Bryant – $4,800 – Chicago Cubs
  3. Adrian Beltre – $4,100 – Texas Rangers

Shortstop

  1. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,800 – Colorado Rockies
  2. Jose Reyes – $4,300 – Toronto Blue Jays
  3. Elvis Andrus – $3,600 – Chicago Cubs

Outfield

  1. Jason Heyward – $3,500 – St. Louis Cardinals
  2. Joc Pederson – $3,700 – Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Ryan Braun – $5,300 – Milwaukee Brewers
  4. Mike Trout – $6,200 – Los Angeles Angels
  5. Yasiel Puig – $3,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers
  6. Drew Stubbs – $3,000 – Colorado Rockies
  7. Jay Bruce – $3,600 – Cincinnati Reds
  8. Curtis Granderson – $3,600 – New York Mets

Starting Pitcher

  1. Corey Kluber – $11,200 – Cleveland Indians
  2. Johnny Cueto – $10,100 – Cincinnati Reds
  3. Tyson Ross – $9,300 – San Diego Padres
  4. Matt Cain – $7,000 – San Francisco Giants
  5. Wade Miley – $6,200 – Boston Red Sox

*Rankings are price sensitive

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