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Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy, July 8th

Welcome ladies and gentlemen to another edition of Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy. As usual, I’ve included below analysis for tonight’s slate of MLB games on DraftKings.

Included below is a look at the best pitching options, potential teams to stack from as well as a small set of individual player rankings.

If you don’t already have an account at DraftKings, make sure to sign up using the link!

Forecast

It again appears as if the games on the Eastern side of the nation might have some small rain chances. Be wary of the games in Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, as well as the one in Coors Field. Make sure to check forecasts closer to game time to ensure these games will go.

Pitching Perspective

Clayton Kershaw – end analysis. Just kidding…but seriously. Kershaw against the Phillies is one of the best matchups DFS has seen all season long, barring perhaps the few times that Max Scherzer gets to face them. I don’t even really think I need to give you much rationale here. The best pitcher in baseball at his home park against the worst team. Don’t overthink it.

While Kershaw is the overwhelming top option today, there are some other guys to keep your eye on. First, Chris Archer will take the ball at Kauffman Stadium. Archer has been fantastic this season and has truly blossomed into one of the American League’s best arms. His 2.49 xFIP and 10.97 K/9 speak for themselves. The trouble tonight is that his matchup with the Royals doesn’t really help his upside too much. The Royals as a team are a consistent and pesky offense that doesn’t strike out very often. I like Archer as a tournament option, but I won’t be deploying him in cash games thanks to his salary and matchup.

The pitcher you want to pair with Kershaw in cash games might be one of the guys throwing at Wrigley Field tonight. Both Michael Wacha and Jason Hammel have been fantastic this season, and both are facing offenses that are struggling to score runs. As for Wacha, we know that the Cubs strikeout a ton, but he isn’t actually a huge strikeout arm (only 7.11 K/9). The good thing for him is that he really excels at run prevention (2.66 ERA) and has been on the right side of the BABIP train (.265).

Hammel has simply been victimized by a lack of run support, which might be a problem tonight. Otherwise, he’s been sensational. He’s racked up a K/9 over 9.00, while allowing less than 1 HR/9 and only 1.5 BB/9. Plus he’s not getting himself into much trouble, as evidenced by his 3.14 xFIP.

An additional option for tonight would be Trevor Bauer. Bauer is like a lot of his rotation-mates in Cleveland – inconsistent. He has fantastic stuff, including a great strikeout upside (8.60 K/9) paired with a great strikeout matchup and the Houston Astros. The Astros are a tough offense though, and can quiet a pitcher fast if they get the ball rolling. The problem here will be all the free bases he hands out (nearly four a game). It’s NSFCG, not safe for cash games.

Side Note: I’m not against using Gio Gonzalez or Andrew Cashner in tournaments, but tournaments only.

Stack Options

There is a game at Coors Field today. You all know what that means. A quick glance at team totals puts the Angels near 5.5 runs and the Rockies around 5. Do what you will, this will be the most popular game on the slate and a game you’ll want to have exposure to in cash games and tournaments.

If you’re looking elsewhere for your tournament fix tonight, look to the Toronto Blue Jays. I’ve had about enough of John Danks ruining great stacking opportunities like he did the last time out against the Orioles. The Blue Jays are a different animal and are made up of a bunch of power hitting right-handed hitters. Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are three of my favorites tonight. Don’t shy away from these guys in cash games or tournaments.

The Red Sox are consistently pegged to be a great stack, and consistently they let us down. Their lineup isn’t very deep, but they do have some solid bats at premier positions (Hanley SS eligible). Tom Koehler isn’t that bad, but he’s not that good. His command fails him at times, as he awards about 3.5 BB/9. The more baserunners, the better for a stack. With that being said, they make the bottom of my stack list, with David Ortiz being my favorite.

Jeremey Hellickson and Matt Harrison could be a fun game…for hitters. Hellickson has flashed brilliance in the past, but isn’t one that I’d rely on being fairly consistent two starts in a row. He actually gets a slight upgrade in park, but it’s not one that helps, as Globe Life is still a hitters’ park. Paul Goldschmidt, AJ Pollock and Yasmany Tomas all possess plus tools against left-handed starters and are great options tonight. But the Rangers don’t have a whole lot of guys that get me excited. Look to Mitch Moreland or Prince Fielder as potential tournament targets.

The Dodgers are always stackable, but they set up better against right-handed starters. With that being said, you can find a lot of value tonight if Alex Guerrero and Scott Van Slyke find their way into the lineup against Adam Morgan.

Last but not least, the game in Yankee Stadium is always a possibility for fireworks. I’m not particularly interested in picking on either pitcher or loading up either team, but the ballpark is a paradise for hitters.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Chris Iannneta -$3,500 – Los Angeles Angels

2. Josh Phegley – $3,100 – Oakland Athletics

3. Russell Martin -$4,300 – Toronto Blue Jays

First Basemen

1. Edwin Encarnacion -$4,800 – Toronto Blue Jays

2. Albert Pujols -$5,600 – Los Angeles Angels

3. Mitch Moreland -$3,900 – Texas Rangers

Second Basemen

1. Johnny Giavotella– $3,400- Los Angeles Angels

2. Howie Kendrick-$4,500 – Los Angeles Dodgers

3. Ben Zobrist -$4,200 – Oakland Athletics

Shorstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki -$5,300 – Colorado Rockies

2. Erick Aybar -$4,600 – Los Angeles Angels

3. Jose Reyes -$4,600 – Toronto Blue Jays

Third Basemen

1. Josh Donaldson -$4,900 – Toronto Blue Jays

2. Nolan Arenado -$5,200 – Colorado Rockies

3. Justin Turner -$3,900 -Los Angeles Dodgers

Outfield

1. Mike Trout -$6,600 – Los Angeles Angels (gpp)

2. Jose Bautista -$5,100 – Toronto Blue Jays

3. Carlos Gonzalez -$4,000 – Colorado Rockies

4. AJ Pollock -$4,700 – Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitcher

1. Clayton Kershaw -$13,300 -Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Michael Wacha -$9,400 – St. Louis Cardinals

3. Jason Hammel -$9,100 – Chicago Cubs

4. Chris Archer -$10,600 – Tampa Bay Rays

5. Trevor Bauer -$7,900 – Cleveland Indians

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