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Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy: March 14th

Below I’ve got a discussion of the best matchups and potential stacks of the day followed by cash game rankings for tonight’s DraftKings contests. At the bottom of the post I’ve embedded my research chart for the day. Here is just a snippet of the chart I’ll use to explain what you’re looking at.

NHL DFS ex.

First the colors. Purple/blue is amazeballs, green is great, yellow is good, orange is bad, red is awful and deep red is no effing way.

The first column that isn’t self-explanatory is the fifth one, the one that is titled ‘z’ to the right of salary. That is how far above or below average the player’s salary is compared to all other players in action today. ‘Pts/Gm’ is a projection derived from my own Marcel-like projection system. The ‘z’ next to the projection is how far above or below average the projection is compared to all other players in action today. And then ‘zDIFF’ is the projection z-score minus the player’s salary z-score. The zDIFF column is really what we’re looking at.

Make sure to check Twitter for any injury news and line changes, and check Daily Faceoff for starting goalies.

Teams to Target

Buffalo is hosting the Rangers; roster Rangers. Can I just end my analysis of that game there? Really, anyone from the top two lines for New York is an option, and even Kevin Hayes ($3,400, W) and Carl Hagelin ($4,100, W) make sense in a GPP if you want to try and avoid the high ownership percentages of the top two lines and still have exposure to the matchup. I might avoid Rick Nash ($8,400, W) in cash games, but he’s obviously in play in GPPs. The rest of the top-six are all options in cash games. On the blue line I’d look at Keith Yandle ($4,700, D) and Dan Boyle ($3,800, D).

With Mackenzie Skapski in net for the Rangers, the Sabres also have a decent matchup on the other side of that game. The Rangers second line is just an average possession line, so you might take a shot on Buffalo’s second line in a GPP lineup. I’d consider the second line wingers, Brian Gionta ($3,200, W) and Marcus Foligno ($2,600, W).

The other really good matchup belongs to Colorado hosting Calgary. I was looking at the individual possession numbers for the Flames last night and I literally laughed out loud. They’re a truly awful possession team. And they’re playing for the second night in a row in mile high air. There’s a mini-stack from each of the top two lines that is an option, but I like Matt Duchene ($6,100, C) and Jarome Iginla ($5,800, W) over Ryan O’Reilly ($4,800, W) and Gabriel Landeskog ($7,100, W) both in terms of production and price. O’Reilly/Landeskog do make sense for Fanduel lineups where you can only play two centers since both are classified as wingers.

Toronto also played last night and we all know they have a penchant for giving up goals, so the Canucks at home against the Leafs are also in a nice spot. I’ve said this in previous write-ups, but I think Toronto’s biggest defensive weakness is down their right side, so I like to use left wingers against them. That means Henrik Sedin ($4,000, C) and Daniel Sedin ($5,600, W) are a nice play there.

Finally, I would like St. Louis if Minnesota decides to go with Darcy Kuemper in net on the second half of a back-to-back. My guess is that they go with Devan Dubnyk again, but if not the Blues could be an option. I’d lean toward Alexander Steen ($5,700, W) who has a nice price tag tonight. In St. Louis’ last game Steen was on the third line centered by Paul Stastny ($4,800, C). But it would be no surprise if he were back on the top line tonight with David Backes ($5,700, C). I’m comfortable pairing him with either center.

Price-Adjusted Player Rankings

Mini-Stacks (cash games)

  1. Derek Stepan/Martin St. Louis – New York Rangers
  2. Matt Duchene/Jarome Iginla – Colorado Avalanche
  3. Henrik Sedin/Daniel Sedin – Vancouver Canucks
  4. Derick Brassard/Mats Zuccarello – New York Rangers
  5. Paul Stastny/Alexander Steen – St. Louis Blues
  6. Derek Stepan/Chris Kreider – New York Rangers

Mini-Stacks (GPP)

  1. Derick Brassard/Rick Nash – New York Rangers
  2. Matt Duchene/Jarome Iginla – Colorado Avalanche
  3. Henrik Sedin/Daniel Sedin – Vancouver Canucks
  4. Steven Stamkos/Alex Killorn – Tampa Bay Lightning
  5. Paul Stastny/Alexander Steen – St. Louis Blues
  6. Brian Gionta/Marcus Foligno – Buffalo Sabres

Defense

  1. Alexander Edler – $4,200 – Vancouver Canucks
  2. Tyson Barrie – $5,200 – Colorado Avalanche
  3. P.K. Subban – $5,600 – Montreal Canadiens
  4. Justin Faulk – $5,600 – Carolina Hurricanes
  5. Yannick Weber – $3,000 – Vancouver Canucks
  6. Ryan Murphy – $3,200 – Carolina Hurricanes

Goalie

Goalies with an asterisk next to their name are second on their team’s depth chart, so don’t count on them playing. Any players in bold have been confirmed as the starter for the day. And players with a line through their name will not be starting tonight. Make sure you always check Daily Faceoff for starting goalie updates in case I am unable to update the list throughout the day.

  1. Eddie Lack – $6,800 – Vancouver Canucks
  2. Cory Schneider – $8,300 – New Jersey Devils
  3. Mackenzie Skapski – $6,400 – New York Rangers

Research Chart

You can download the research chart from this Google Sheet page here.

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