The case for drafting Greinke

In 2010 Zack Greinke hit a speed bump on his rise as one of the top pitchers in the game.  A new park, new league, and run support will all add up to fantasy fortune.  Look for Greinke to regain his composure this season and get back on track with his Cy Young capabilities.
    
When analyzing Greinke’s 2010 season you can see he suffered partially from his own mistakes.  However, the majority of his misfortune stems from poor defense, and poor run support.  

Last year, Greinke’s DIPS (Defense Independent ERA) was 3.45, a large drop from his ERA of 4.17.  By judging him based on his DIPS, taking into account his poor defensive supporting cast, Greinke would rank seventh overall, yet he ranked 28th.  

Greinke’s change of scenery this season won’t move him to the best fielding team in the league, but it will move him to a team ranked ten spots higher than the 25th ranked Kansas City defense.  This is a good jump but doesn’t come close to the offensive threat that will be on his side for a change.
    
Last season Greinke was given average runs per game in RS (Runs Support) by the anemic Royals offense.  Those numbers were bad enough to rank fifth lowest per start in the league.  Greinke’s horrible run support has nowhere to go but up when he has batters like Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Richie Weeks supporting him.
    
Making a decision between Greinke and Clayton Kershaw could at first seem like splitting hairs.  However, there are a few caveats that should be noted when considering picking Kershaw.  

First, Kerhsaw has a history of a high walk-rate and low innings-per start rate.  Throughout his career he has averaged 4.2 BB per 9 innings and a paltry 5.9 innings per game started.  

Kershaw can put up good numbers but one of his weaknesses is his inefficiency in pitch count.  For his career he averages 99 pitches per started games, in other words 99 pitches per 5.9 innings.  This puts him at a disadvantage for wins and for Quality Starts if your league measures that statistic.  

Clayton also got somewhat lucky last year, maintaining a substantially low .279 BABIP for the season.  

When it comes down to it, either pitcher is worthy of playing on my fantasy team.  Both pitchers on my team would be a dream come true honestly.  Nevertheless, if it’s time to make a decision with a minute on the clock, knowing this might be the difference between fantasy gold and bust.