Coming up in today’s fantasy football version of the daily fix, I’ve got some buy low and sell high candidates as well as some daily fantasy strategy with wide receiver recommendations for DraftKings daily fantasy contests this weekend.

News and Notes

Buy Low

Stevan Ridley – This seems kind of obvious, but Ridley is going to have better days than he’s had so far this year. After getting benched in week 1 for fumbling, his value took a huge hit when Shane Vereen performed well in his place. But we all know that Vereen was injured in that game and Ridley’s value bounced back. But then he sucked it up on Thursday night with 40 yards on just 16 carries. But that was against the Jets who have a pretty good run defense. ProFootballFocus rated them as the 11th best run defense last year, and they kept Doug Martin in check in week 1. Things might not get better against a good Tampa run D next week, but he should see some better performances soon after that.

Sell High

Stevie Johnson – Stevie had a nice day on Sunday with 100+ yards and a score. He’s now found the end zone in both of the opening weeks. The problem is that he has historically been a six to eight touchdown guy, and there hasn’t been anything in the first two weeks that indicates he’s going to vastly outperform that range. He was targeted 148 times last year, which is a number that would be difficult to increase as it was the eighth highest total in the league. And after two games he’s on pace for 128 targets. So you can’t explain his two scores by saying he’s going to see more targets this year and thus more targets near the end zone.

There are other reasons you could use as arguments that Johnson is going to increase his touchdown total this year, but the most likely reality is that Johnson just scored two weeks in a row and will end up with his usual 1000+ yards and seven touchdowns. Occam’s Razor, right? He’s scored in consecutive weeks before, and he’s failed to score in consecutive weeks before. That will continue.

I like Stevie. I own him on half of my eight teams. But I’m expecting his touchdown rate going forward to be about one every other game as opposed one per game. I’m also terrified of his schedule starting this week through week 11 before his bye in week 12. Between now and then, here are the cornerbacks he’ll face: Antonio Cromartie (twice), Lardarius Webb, Joe Haden, the Adam Jones/Leon Hall/Terence Newman trio, Brandon Flowers and Ike Taylor. He does have decent matchups against Miami and New Orleans in weeks seven and eight, but it’s going to be tough for him during most of fantasy football’s regular season.

If you were going to try and trade him straight up for another receiver, I’d trade him for the following guys:

• Anquan Boldin – If his owner thinks week 1 was a fluke, you might be able to get Boldin. And Boldin is a guy I think is going to improve on what he’s done the last few years because of an increase in usage.
• Hakeem Nicks – I think Nicks is going to produce yardage more consistently week to week and is thus someone I’d rather own over Johnson.
• Roddy White – Maybe his owner is terrified of his injury. But I think Roddy will be completely ready to go by week four or five.

If you need a running back, make an offer for the guys below if their owner could use a receiver. They might turn you down but it’s worth a shot.

• DeAngelo Williams – He’s got 185 yards through two games without Jonathan Stewart taking away work. Cam and Tolbert will continue to make it hard for him to find the end zone, but he’ll end up with five to seven scores. His consistency derived from his steady workload is valuable.
• David Wilson – This is a buy low, but I think it’s worth the risk. I just can’t believe that Brandon Jacobs is going to be effective enough to continue to take touches away from Wilson.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Recommendations

Week 1 is in the books and I have tripled my money as I cashed in a Triple Up! this weekend. But when week 16 rolls around I could have a chance to “millionaire up” when DraftKings hosts a contest with $3.1 million in prizes and a million dollar grand prize. Qualifiers for this insane contest are going on weekly.

Before we get to the recommendations, here are the rules for the various NFL games DraftKings offers and a quick look at how wide receivers score points:

• 10 Receiving Yards = +1PT (+0.1PT per yard is awarded)
• Reception = +1PT
• Receiving TD = +6PTs
• 100+ Yard Receiving Game = +3PTs
• Fumble Lost = -1PT
• 2 Point Conversion (Pass, Run, or Catch) = +2PTs

One way to find value in DraftKings contests is to take advantage of guys whose previous week’s performance really increased their value. The DraftKings pricing model doesn’t take the previous week’s performance into account so that they can open contests very early in the week. So let’s take a look at a few guys who saw a big increase in value last week and who might be too cheap this week as a result.

Eric Decker, $5,800 – Decker got back on track with nine catches for 87 yards on 13 targets. But because of his giant turd in week 1, he’s only the 34th most expensive wide receiver this week. I haven’t done my week three rankings yet, but I’m positive I’ll have Decker as a top 30 receiver, and he might even crack the top 20 against Oakland.

Josh Gordon, $5,000 – I wasn’t someone who thought Josh Gordon was valuable enough to draft in the 11th round and stash for two weeks. But he’s back this week and only the 41st most expensive receiver. He certainly has top 30 upside.

Doug Baldwin, $3,000 – This is as cheap as receivers get, and Baldwin deserves to be one of the 80 receivers who have not been assigned the lowest possible price. He racked up 91 yards on seven catches (eight targets) in week one and got free for a big 51 yard gain in his only target on Sunday night. Don’t let his one target last night alarm you. The Seattle receivers only had eight total. Sidney Rice had five and Golden Tate had two. They’ll all get more looks against the Jags than they did against the Niners. But I think Baldwin could have the best day of the three because he’s the slot guy, and the Jags were the worst team against slot receivers last year according to Football Outsiders.