2013 Fantasy BaseballFantasy Baseball

2014 Fantasy Baseball: Early Top 10 2B For 2014

Our trip around the diamond ranking the top 10 fantasy options for standard leagues in 2014 makes a stop at the keystone today. If you’re looking for my catcher or first baseman rankings you can find them here and here.

Second base is much deeper than its middle infield counterpart in 2014. In fact, I dreaded the shortstop rankings more than anything during the prep time I took to do my rankings. But, today is about second base. The position got much more interesting in 2013 with the emergence of players like Jedd Gyorko and Matt Carpenter. My favorite development of the 2013 season, however, was the resurgance effort put forth by Chase Utley. The game is better when players of Utley’s caliber and pedigree are healthy and performing at a high level. The rankings below are based on my overall opinion of the player and their prospective playing time for 2014.

2014 2B Rankings
2014 2B Rankings

Robinson Cano holding the top spot on the board shouldn’t surprise anyone. He is a model of consistency. I touched, somewhat in depth, on his prospects for 2014 in my overall top 10 piece a few weeks ago.

At the midway point of the 2013 season, I began to seriously consider the fact that Jason Kipnis might be my number one second baseman in 2014. Unfortunately, shortly after I considered the possibility he quickly faded down the stretch.

2013 First Half vs. Second Half
2013 First Half vs. Second Half

Kipnis declined in nearly every discernible category in the second half. The most alarming part of the picture above, in my opinion, is the lack of power he showed in the second half. Even more concerning is that this is the second year in a row that Mr. Kipnis has faded terribly as the season has gotten deep into the Dog Days of summer.

2012 First Half vs. Second Half
2012 First Half vs. Second Half

He went through an almost identical swoon two seasons in a row. During August, Michael Barr wrote a phenomenal piece about Kipnis’ struggles at the season went on. He’s still young, so perhaps these second half fades are a product of adjusting to the grind of a full season. Until he figures out how to perform at a high level for the entire year – or at least a little more of it – he’ll be stuck behind Cano.

Dustin Pedroia, like Cano, is a model of consistency. He rarely misses games and is a solid consistent performer year in and year out. The main concern regarding his 2013 campaign is his lack of power. Some, if not the majority, of the blame can be placed on the ligaments he tore in his thumb extremely early in the season. On the other hand, Pedroia’s flyball distance also declined a large amount following his stellar 2011 campaign.

Power Outage?
Power Outage?

I’m a little more concerned about his power after considering that he also lost 9 feet of distance on average after 2011. What this chart doesn’t show is that his GB% also shot up in 2013 – in part due to a change in approach brought on by the thumb injury. Despite the loss of distance and increasing GB% I’m still betting on the larger sample of data which tells us that Pedroia is a phenomenal fantasy performer. Steamer’s early 2014 projections have him putting together: a 13 homer 14 steal campaign with nearly a .300 batting average again. Sounds perfectly reasonable to me.

Matt Carpenter is almost sure to be overvalued by most fantasy players. I love Matt Carpenter’s game – in real life. I’m not a huge fan of his game in fantasy. Most of his value in 2013 was derived from his eye-popping 126 runs and his .318 batting average. I’m a believer in the batting average; maybe to the tune of .318, but I believe he’ll be around .300 once again. I, however, don’t believe he’ll score 126 runs again. The Cardinals’ success with RISP was widely documented this season and that success isn’t likely to carry over into 2013. He should score around 90-100 runs and 10+ homers again in 2014 while helping you in batting average. That’s plenty valuable, I’m just not quite sure how valuable it will given his likely draft position.

I’m almost sure to be higher on Aaron Hill than everyone else. I’m fine with that, because that likely means I’ll be able to draft/buy him at a fair price on draft day. He was injured for the majority of 2013, but when he was in the lineup he was very productive. Despite his power outage in 2011 (8 homers in 571 plate appearances), he has been one of the most reliable power sources in the league at second base.

2B Power
Keystone Power

You can cross two names off of that list in standard leagues. You don’t want Rickie Weeks or Dan Uggla on your team in 2014 – at least not in a starting role. Of the names listed above, Hill has less plate appearances than all but Mr. Weeks. His power is legit and he is in the perfect park for his game. I’m drafting Aaron Hill with confidence in 2014.

Ian Kinsler is somewhat an enigma to me at the moment. I want him to be as good as he was a few years ago, but that is simply not going to happen. He looks to be very much entering – or already in – his decline phase. For the third season in a row his power declined. He went from mashing 30 homers in 2011 to only mustering 13 in 2013. He was also much less of a threat on the base paths in 2013; stealing a three year low of 15 – while being caught a career high 11 times. His plate discipline numbers are still good for now, but I’ll be watching them very closely in 2014 for more signs of aging. He’ll always be an asset for runs at the top of that Texas lineup, but it looks like his days of being a 20/20 or better candidate have gone by the wayside.

Much like Hill, I’m likely to be much higher on Utley (if you click that link gaze in awe at his peak years) than most people. Utley comes with great risk – having played 130 games in 2013 for the first time since 2009 – but when he is in the lineup he produces as well as any second baseman not named Robinson Cano. His wRC+ (a metric that weights offensive outputs and then places it on a scale that is adjusted for the league and park) was fourth best in the league at 126 – 100 is league average – in 2014. Utley has health risk, without a doubt, but I’d more than fine drafting him and hoping for 120 games. His production when he’s in the lineup makes him worth it.

It feels like everyone with second base is aging doesn’t it? Zobrist, like Kinsler and Utley, is seemingly racing against father time more than anything else. Coming into 2013, Zobrist had been about as consistent as a performer as you could imagine. He had a terrible first half and everyone began to wonder if he was finally beginning his decline. I believe he is declining, but I don’t think it’s going to be extremely hurtful in 2014. While he was absolutely atrocious in the first half, he was much more like himself in the second half.

Tale of Two Halves
Tale of Two Halves

His second half, while not outstanding, was still productive. Zobrist is declining a little bit. His batted ball distance declined ever so slightly in 2013. It’s what happens when players enter their post prime years. The good news as that his plate discipline numbers are likely unchanged. He’ll still take a walk and he still doesn’t strike out very often. Steamer projects Zobrist to go: 15/10 with a .264 batting average – he should also near 80 – 90 runs again. That’s more than acceptable at second base. The clock is ticking, but it hasn’t hit midnight yet.

Jedd Gyorko was one of my favorite value picks last season. I’ll forever use my late round picks on guys that have potential at shallow positions. He didn’t exactly set the world on fire, but 23 homers at second base in 125 games is still pretty nice. When you add in the fact that he plays in Petco Park – one of the friendliest pitcher parks in the game – it becomes a little more impressive. Make no mistake about it, his power is extremely legit.

Gyorko
Gyorko

Quite possibly my favorite part about that chart – besides the multiple 400+ foot shots – is the amount of homers that were driven either up the middle or the other way. Gyorko’s ability to hit the ball to all fields with authority should help him avoid too many droughts when pitchers begin to pitch him differently. In my eyes, Gyorko is the only reasonable second base candidate to hit 30 homeruns other than Robinson Cano in 2014. Grab him.

Jose Altuve, the shortest man in the game, is the last name on my top 10. He’s an extremely valuable asset in one category. Steals. If you want to look for steals at in the middle infield – and many people do – than Altuve is one of your guys. The issue I have with Altuve is more with his supporting cast.  Altuve, hitting leadoff, only scored 64 times season. Granted, his OBP did drop to a paltry .316 from .340 due to the fact that his already poor walk rate dropped to a miniscule 4.8%. Leadoff hitters, the majority of the time, aren’t an asset in RBI and Altuve is no different. He increased his high thirties total from 2012 to 52 in 2013, which is nice but it’s still pretty low. Altuve is a major asset in one category (steals), a moderate asset in another (avg), and a below average asset in the other three (HR, R, & RBI). I would much rather have the upside of the names above him.

Other Names To Consider

Howie Kendrick came relatively close to making my top 10 instead of Altuve, but I ultimately decided to go with Jose. Kendrick put together another solid fantasy season despite dealing with unfortunate injuries. Kendrick finished 14th on ESPN’s player in 2012, despite having a down year after his stellar 2011 campaign. Kendrick is a safe bet to finish in the top 15 and could crack the top 10 very easily with a full healthy season.

Jurickson Profar is also extremely interesting. His shine is somewhat polished off after struggling mightily in 2013, which could be extremely fruitful for his cost on draft day. Unfortunately, his playing time status depends on, once again, the trade market. Profar’s stock should rise if he is dealt by Texas to greener playing time pastures or if Texas decides to move one of Ian Kinsler or Elvis Andrus. We’ve been spoiled by phenoms such as Bryce Harper and Mike Trout; so much so that they have skewed our expectations for younger players like Profar. Will a full season of playing time I think it’s fair to pencil him in for around: 12 homers, 8 steals, a .250 average, and some combination of 110 runs/rbi. That’s not a star, but it has value from a guy with eligibility at both middle infield positions.

Brandon Phillips might seem like a notable absence. I don’t buy into his 2013 RBI total. He’s become a much worse hitter over the past 3 years – and he isn’t exactly falling from a lofty place. His speed is slipping with age and his contact skills are getting worse. I’m not going anywhere near Phillips in 2014.

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