Projections for the 2014 season are already out from steamerprojections.com. After the 2012 season, Razzball did a study on the most accurate projection systems, and Steamer seemed to be one of the better systems at projecting both hitting and pitching. So I wanted to find a way to turn the Steamer projections into one fantasy value number, something similar to ESPN’s player rater. Thankfully, Zach Sanders came up with a system back in 2011 to do exactly that. If you’d like to read about the methodology, you can do so here, here, here and here. And if you’d like to see how Steamer projects hitters and starters to finish the year in terms of fantasy production, check out this Google Doc.

In the coming weeks I’m going to go position-by-position and compare the Steamer fantasy values to current ADP. The only ADP I can find right now is this NFBC ADP fron NESN. Today we’ll start with catchers.

Underdrafted

Wilin Rosario / Steamer Projection: #2 C / ADP: #5 C

With only two seasons under his belt, I’m a little surprised how easy it is to project Rosario. His two R+RBI totals have been 138 and 142, so there’s little reason to think his 2014 total will be too far from that range. And he’s alternated between great power and great average in his two seasons. He had 28 homers and hit .270 in 2011 and had 21 homers and hit .292 last year. Given that he’s had some significant swings in HR/FB rate and BABIP the last two years, I assume his HRs and his average will fall somewhere in between where they’ve been the last two years. Steamer agrees with me on the average but thinks Rosario can repeat the 28 HRs thanks to a projected increase in plate appearances.

Given that Rosario finished 2nd among catchers according to ESPN’s player rater and 3rd according to Sanders’ end of season catcher valuations, I have to assume he’ll finish that high again since I think his power will rise and his average will drop leading to a wash in fantasy value. Even if you project Rosario’s HR and average to both be on the low end (20-21 HR, .270-ish average), that would make his floor the fifth or sixth most valuable fantasy catcher. That low-end projection is basically what Carlos Santana produced last year and he was the sixth most valuable catcher. So Rosario’s ADP represents his floor, which makes him a great value pick.

Miguel Montero / Steamer Projections: #7 C / ADP: #15 C

This large gap between Steamer and the ADP is really interesting. It’s not hard to figure out why the ADP is so low. Montero had an abysmal 2013 in which he had his lowest total in each of the roto categories since becoming a regular starter (excluding his injury-affected 2010 season). But it’s very interesting that Steamer is projecting him to be the top ten catcher that he was in 2011 and 2012.

When you look at Montero’s Fangraphs page, you’ll see that a lot of his peripherals were down last year. The most notable drop occurred in all the numbers related to his strikeout rate. The long story short is that he swung at more pitches, both in and out of the zone, and made less contact. That’s always a bad sign for a guy approaching 30. It’s also a bit concerning that his ground ball rate spiked about 4% at the expense of his fly ball rate. But all of his peripherals weren’t horrible. He drew walks at a healthy rate and his HR/FB rate and average batted ball distance didn’t tail off. Steamer accounts for a lot of peripherals, so it’s possible that the system sees that not everything went wrong.

It’s also possible that Steamer sees that Montero started off 2013 horribly but was starting to turn things around before missing most of August with an injury. His wRC+ was 108 in June and 115 in July (92 was average for catchers last year). That’s not far off where he was in 2011 and 2012 (118 and 124). I think I’m with Steamer in projecting a bounce back. I’m not so bullish as to have him seventh, but I do think he’s a good option if you want to wait on catcher. You have a good shot at getting a top 10-12 catcher in the 19th round of a 12-teamer or the 23rd round of a ten-teamer with Montero.

Overdrafted

Yadier Molina / Steamer Projection: #11 C / ADP: #4 C

If you don’t count Mike Napoli as a catcher, Molina was the top rated fantasy catcher last year according to both ESPN’s player rater and Sanders’ valuations. And he did it almost entirely with batting average. He was one of only three catchers to have an average above .295, and he trailed only Joe Mauer by a mere five points. But he had 60 more at-bats than Mauer, so his average was more valuable. In the other categories he was 18th among catchers in home runs, tied for third in runs, and fourth in RBI. Those are good enough numbers, but if his average were to drop, his value would take a big hit.

Steamer does think his average is going to take a hit (has him projected for .293). A big part of that is Steamer projecting his BABIP to drop over 30 points from .338 to .307. But it also seems that Steamer may have some sort of built in automatic regression for players once they pass 30 years old because this will be Molina’s age-31 season, and his numbers are down across the board in Steamer’s projections. His projected plate appearance total is just 449 despite Molina having over 500 PA in five straight seasons.

I’m with Steamer on the batting average regression, but I think the projection is way overshooting any potential effects of aging. So if I go with Steamer’s .293 average projection but assume his counting stat totals only regress slightly, I come up with a projection that looks a lot like what Buster Posey posted last year: .294, 15 HR, 61 R, 72 RBI, 2 SB. Posey was the 7th most valuable fantasy catcher last year, so that seems like a more reasonable spot to which Molina might decline. I agree that he’s overvalued at an ADP of four, but I don’t agree that he’s only a borderline starting fantasy catcher.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Steamer Projection: #24 C / ADP: #13 C

A big part of the gap here is the that the drafters are aware that Salty is in line for more plate appearances this year after signing a deal with the Marlins to be their every day catcher. Steamer isn’t aware of that change in situation and thus has him projected for a little less than the 470 PA that he got with Boston last year.

But Steamer is also accounting for something properly that it seems drafters are missing. Salty had an absurd .372 BABIP last year that helped him post a .273 batting average. That .273 batting average over 470 PA only brought his career batting average up to .246. His average was under .240 in each of the four seasons prior to last year. Steamer rightly has his BABIP and his batting average crashing and his average ending up somewhere around .230.

With and ADP of 13, drafters are considering Salty to be a borderline fantasy starter in 12-team leagues, but he has no chance of being that valuable with a .230-ish average. Matt Wieters was the 12th most valuable catcher last year with a .235 average, but he hit 22 home runs which is a total Salty won’t reach unless he somehow recreates his likely unrepeatable 20% HR/FB rate from 2012. Russell Martin was the 15th most valuable fantasy catcher with a .226 average, but he stole nine bases which certainly helped his fantasy value at a position where no one steals any bases.

I think he’s more likely to have a J.P Arencibia type season. JPA hit .194 with 21 HR last year. Bump that average up to .230-ish and the power down to 16-17 HR and I think it’s close to a wash. JPA was the 19th most valuable fantasy catcher and somewhere in that 15-19 range seems more reasonable to me. Having a Wieters type season is his absolute upside, and it doesn’t make sense to take a guy as the 13th catcher when his upside is only finishing 12th at the position.