Projections for the 2014 season are already out from steamerprojections.com. After the 2012 season, Razzball did a study on the most accurate projection systems, and Steamer seemed to be one of the better systems at projecting both hitting and pitching. So I wanted to find a way to turn the Steamer projections into one fantasy value number, something similar to ESPN’s player rater. Thankfully, Zach Sanders came up with a system back in 2011 to do exactly that. If you’d like to read about the methodology, you can do so here, here, here and here. And if you’d like to see how Steamer projects hitters and starters to finish the year in terms of fantasy production, check out this Google Doc.

In the coming weeks I’m going to go position-by-position and compare the Steamer fantasy values to current ADP. The only ADP I can find right now is this NFBC ADP fron NESN. I previously looked at catchers and first basemen, and today I’ll look at second basemen.

Underdrafted

Aaron Hill / Steamer Projection: #5 2B / ADP: #11 2B

If you’ve gone through the years trying to project what Hill would do in a season based on what he had done the season before, then you’ve been horrible at projecting Aaron Hill. Just to illustrate the up-and-down nature of his career, let me list in chronological order his Fangraphs offense ratings for each season starting with his first season as a regular in 2006 (zero is average): -3.5, 5.0, -4.9,  15.4, -15,4, -16.9, 27.8, 8.3.  Jenna Jameson hasn’t even been that up and down with a bat in her hands.

All you can really do with Hill is try to find a midpoint between his ups and downs and maybe fade the midpoint a little since he’s on the back side of the aging curve at 32. Steamer projects him to be slightly above average with a 110 wRC+, and slightly above average is basically what he’s been when you average out his highs and lows. But Steamer is very generously projecting Hill for 651 PA despite Hill’s health also being inconsistent, so the counting stat totals projected for him may be a touch high.

I prefer the Oliver or Fangraphs fan projections with respect to playing time and counting stat totals, but they are too optimistic in projecting him to hit .287. Ultimately, I agree with Steamer’s .271 batting average projection and the Oliver/Fan projections of roughly 17/75/75/7 for HR/R/RBI/SB. That looks a lot like Ben Zobrist‘s line from last year which was: .275, 12 HR, 77 R, 71 RBI, 11 SB. Zobrist was only the 11th most valuable second baseman according to ESPN’s player rater last year. So I’m with the drafters on this one.

Jose Altuve / Steamer projection: #2 2B / ADP: #7 ADP

There are a couple of reasons that the Steamer projection for Altuve is so high. The first is that Steamer thinks the Astros lineup around Altuve is going to be better. His run total is projected to jump by 21 runs from last year, and his RBI total is projected to get a little bump. The runs projection is huge because it places Altuve in a tie for second in projected runs scored at the position. The other reason is that he’s got big advantages on the field in the batting average and steals categories. He’s projected to have nine more steals than any other 2B and the 5th best batting average. But when you weight his batting average contribution for the high number of at-bats he’s likely to get, he’s projected to be the second most valuable contributor in that category at the position.

I think I’m with Steamer on this one. Altuve was the sixth most valuable 2B on the ESPN player rater last year, and because I agree with Steamer’s projected increase in runs scored, I’m confident he’ll be more valuable than sixth at the position. I’m confident he’ll pass two of the guys who were more valuable than him last year, Matt Carpenter and Daniel Murphy (more on them in a moment). I’m also confident he won’t be more valuable than one of the guys who was more valuable, Robinson Cano. But I think he’s in the mix with Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis in the top four. He might finish fourth, but last time I checked, four is closer to two than it is to seven. A point for Steamer here.

Overdrafted

Matt Carpenter / Steamer Projection: #11 2B / ADP: #4 2B

I didn’t even have to dig in to this one to know that I was going to be on Steamer’s side, but let’s explain why drafters are severely overvaluing Carpenter. It all starts with the 126 runs that Carpenter scored last year. He led the league in runs scored by 17 and led all other second basemen by at least 34 runs. But this piece from Eno Sarris makes it clear that Carpenter is unlikely to come close to repeating that run total. The long story short is that Carpenter’s power and plate discipline are not as good as other players who have scored so many runs in the past. Please read the whole piece for a full explanation, but absent a major spike in either his walk rate or his power, that run total is gonna tumble.

The other thing is that his batting average could dip and further affect his run total. He hit .318 last year with a .359 BABIP and is definitely a guy who is going to have an above average BABIP because of an excellent line drive rate. He’s got a 25.8% LD% in his first 1000+ PA, and that’s the fourth best LD% since 2011 for any hitter with at least 1000 PA. But line drive rate is a wildly variable statistic, and even a moderate dip in his line drive rate could really affect his average as well as his runs total. And it’s a little concerning that his line drive rate in 535 PA at AAA in 2011 was 16.1%.

To recap, Carp’s run total is going to decline drastically unless he completely bucks history or sees a significant spike in power or plate discipline. And his average is at risk of declining, which would further affect his run total. If nothing else, his average has no upside. Actually, he doesn’t have upside in any category. So he’s going to have to repeat last year to be worth taking as the fourth second baseman. It’s much more likely he’ll regress. Another point for Steamer.

Daniel Murphy / Steamer Projection: #13 2B / ADP: #8 2B

The main reason that Steamer is so low on Murphy is that the projection system has him getting 133 fewer plate appearances than he got last year. It also has him getting slightly fewer runs and RBI on a per plate appearance basis, but the big difference between Steamer and the drafters seems to be playing time. Murphy does have an injury history as he didn’t play in the majors at all in 2010 because of an MCL injury (left knee) and missed the last two months of 2011 with another MCL injury (right knee).

Assuming you fade the playing time projection a bit but not as much as Steamer, you’re basically looking at Murphy finishing with either a Kinsler-like line from last year (the 7th most valuable 2B on ESPN’s player rater) or a Zobrist-like line (the 11th most valuable 2B). I’ve included their lines below so you can decide for yourself. I think he’ll finish somewhere between the two, so I think he’s at least the 10th 2B. So count me with the drafters here.