2014 Fantasy Baseball: Week 15 Two-Start Pitchers and Streamers
There are almost 1,000 two-start pitchers this week, and while that number may be a bit on the high side it’s almost accurate. A lot of the double-dippers this week aren’t very attractive options, but several of them do offer some upside. I’ve tried to touch on a few of them below.
There are several two-start pitchers who qualify for the streaming portion of this article. For sake of brevity I’ll only cover them in the top portion of the article, but you should definitely pick up any of the two-starters you want to stream. If you have any questions about these starters, other pitchers or general fantasy baseball questions hit me up on Twitter.
Must-Start
- Adam Wainwright – Mon vs. PIT, Sat at MIL
- Johnny Cueto – Tue vs. CHC, Sun vs. PIT
- Julio Teheran – Tue at NYM, Sun at CHC
- Masahiro Tanaka – Tue at CLE, Sun at BAL
- Cole Hamels – Mon at MIL, Sat vs. WSH
- Stephen Strasburg – Mon vs. BAL, Sat at PHI
- Madison Bumgarner – Tue at OAK, Sun vs. ARI
- Sonny Gray – Tue vs. SF, Sun at SEA
- Hisashi Iwakuma – Mon vs. MIN, Sat vs. OAK
The only real question here is Iwakuma, who had two rough starts to end June. But he pitched very well in his first July start and has a 2.80 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 395.2 innings as a starter. That rough June ending was just a bump in the road for one of the best starter’s in the past two seasons.
Start in 12-teamers
- Hyun-jin Ryu – Tue at DET, Sun vs. SD
- Jered Weaver – Mon vs. TOR, Sat at TEX
- Tyson Ross – Tue at COL, Sun at LAD
- Justin Verlander – Tue vs. LAD, Sun at KC
- Doug Fister – Tue vs. BAL, Sun at PHI
- Charlie Morton – Mon at STL, Sat at CIN
- Jake Odorizzi – Mon vs. KC, Sun vs. TOR
- Ian Kennedy – Mon at COL, Sat at LAD
- Mike Minor – Mon at NYM, Sat at CHC
Ryu draws the second worst matchup for lefties as well as the absolute best matchup for lefties. Even with the Detroit draw Ryu is a must-start in most leagues. He’s got more starts of zero earned runs (four) than starts with more than three earned runs (three). He’s also been incredibly consistent in his 1.5 MLB seasons, actually improving across the board this season.
Ross draws two of the toughest matchups for a righty this season, but Ross has also almost become a must-start. His slider is one of the best in the game, and he does a great job limiting hard contact. Ross is prone to a bad start, but 10 of his 18 starts have been at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs. He’s turned into a very good starter, and his batted ball profile allows you to start him in weeks like this.
It’s possible Verlander is turning the corner on his worst season as he’s averaging over a strikeout an inning in his last three starts, which he’s compiled a 3.31 ERA in with only two walks. The velocity and whiff rate haven’t rebounded recently, so it’s not clear what’s led to this success. He has thrown his slider more, but the whiff rate on it is the lowest it’s been in the past year and a half. But you can trust him for now especially with that Kansas City start.
Morton has a career-best K-BB% in 2014, and since May 1 his ERA is a stellar 2.87. Morton’s still getting a ton of ground balls, but the spike in strikeouts is due to an increase in curveballs. He’s throwing his curve five percent more often than for his career, and he’s getting strikeouts at over a 50 percent clip on at-bats ending in a curve. Out of qualified starters he’s got the seventh highest strikeout percentage on a curveball this season. Neither opponent has an excellent offense so Morton makes for a good play this week.
Odorizzi has a 2.05 ERA in his last five starts with a WHIP just over 1.00 and just a bit less than a strikeout an inning. In a daily league you could sit him against Toronto, but the Kansas City matchup is a very good one. Even if he doesn’t last very long in his outing(s) he’ll get you plenty of Ks.
Deep-league starts
- Jesse Chavez – Mon vs. SF, Sat at SEA
- Mike Leake – Mon vs. CHC, Sat vs. PIT
- Carlos Martinez – Tue vs. PIT, Sun at MIL
- Tom Koehler – Mon at ARI, Sun at NYM
- James Shields – Mon at TB, Sat vs. DET
- Phil Hughes – Tue at SEA, Sun at COL
- Tyler Skaggs – Tue vs. TOR, Sun at TEX
- Jason Vargas – Tue at TB, Sun vs. DET
- Wily Peralta – Tue vs. PHI, Sun vs. STL
- Brandon Workman – Tue vs. CWS, Sun at HOU
- Clay Buchholz – Mon vs. CWS, Sat at HOU
A lot of these pitchers are either struggling or just not very fun options. Chavez presents arguably the best case here, with one neutral and one good matchup. He’s been struggling recently with nine earned runs and seven walks in his last two starts, but with the pitcher-friendly venues he’ll be pitching in he’s an OK start still.
Leake continues to post career-bests in strikeouts, walks and home runs as well as ground ball rates, FIP and xFIP. The Pirates hit righties pretty well while the Cubs don’t, but I’d roll with Leake in both starts. Martinez hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his four starts this year, but he’s able to strike out almost a batter an inning. If you’re slotting him into your last SP slot in a deep league that’s fine.
Koehler has three straight better than quality starts, although they’ve come against very bad competition. But he’s averaging seven strikeouts in those starts with just four walks. This week, with two unimposing offenses, he can be used in deeper leagues, too. Skaggs pitched well in his return from the DL against the White Sox, who rank as a below-average offense against lefties. The Blue Jays rank below average against lefties, while Texas ranks fifth so I wouldn’t advise using Skaggs in an innings-limited league. But in a deep league where you need some innings he can help you somewhat even if he does get roughed up in a start this week.
Peralta has struggled with the long ball this year, but before allowing two in his first July start he had been getting the problem under control month-by-month. This week he faces two bottom-three teams in Isolated Power against righties so he should be able to limit the damage with his decent strikeout and walk rates.
AL-/NL-Only starts
- Jacob deGrom – Tue vs. ATL, Sun vs. MIA
- Justin Masterson – Mon vs. NYY, Sat vs. CWS
- Trevor Bauer – Tue vs. NYY, Sun vs. CWS
- Kyle Kendrick – Tue at MIL, Sun vs. WSH
- Chris Tillman – Mon at WSH, Sat vs. NYY
- Ryan Vogelsong – Mon at OAK, Sat vs. ARI
- Marco Estrada – Mon vs. PHI, Sat vs. STL
- Tyler Matzek – Mon vs. SD, Sun vs. MIN
- Wei-Yin Chen – Tue at WSH, Sun vs. NYY
- Jarred Cosart – Mon at TEX, Sun vs. BOS
- John Danks – Tue at BOS, Sun at CLE
- J.A. Happ – Mon at LAA, Sun at TB
If you need some strikeouts Masterson‘s your guy, but don’t rely on him for help anywhere else. Tillman has had a lot of success in his last five starts despite only nine strikeouts and 12 walks. He’s really an unpleasant option here, but if you want to try to ride that wave go ahead; I wouldn’t. Vogelsong has recorded at least six strikeouts in seven of his last 10 starts while allowing just two home runs in that same time span. The Oakland matchup is a little scary, but he should be a positive start this week for you.
Pitchers to avoid
- Chase Anderson
- Scott Carroll
- Kevin Correia
- Edwin Jackson
- Nick Martinez
- Daisuke Matsuzaka
- Miles Mikolas
- Vidal Nuno
- Travis Wood
- Vance Worley
Top streaming options available in at least 50 percent of ESPN leagues
Marcus Stroman – Wednesday at Los Angeles Angels – Since moving into the rotation Stroman, in seven starts, has a 2.08 ERA with a WHIP just over 1.00 in 43.1 innings. He’s recorded 39 strikeouts to just 11 walks as a starter. The Angels rank ninth against righties in wOBA, but Stroman has shut down two top 10 offenses – the A’s and White Sox – in his past two starts.
Jeff Locke – Friday at Cincinnati – Cincinnati ranks just 28th in wOBA against lefties and Locke’s been on a roll after his first start in early May. In his past six starts he’s only walked more than one batter once in a start and has pitched into the eighth inning four times.
Danny Duffy – Friday vs. Detroit – Duffy gave up two home runs to the Indians Sunday, but he was able to last six innings, striking out six and walking none. The Tigers rank second in wOBA against lefties, but Duffy’s got good enough stuff to be useful this week.
Wade Miley – Saturday at San Francisco – Thanks to an insanely high HR/FB rate in June Miley’s ERA was the highest for any month yet this season. But his strikeout and walk rates were the best of any month, and his June xFIP was 2.99.
Drew Hutchison – Saturday at Tampa Bay – Hutchison has been very inconsistent this season, but he’s capable of some big games. He’s shut down the Brewers, Orioles and Tigers, all of whom rank in the top 10 against righties in wOBA, since the beginning of June.