Two-start pitcher rankings

Must-starts

Baltimore ranks last in home wOBA and the Yankees rank 15th in away wOBA on the young season. Archer makes for a very good start this week.

Second-tier options

8. Ervin Santana – Mon at PHI, Sat at NYM – Santana had a great first start, going eight scoreless inning with six strikeouts and no walks against the Mets. Neither start this week is overwhelming, so run him out there. I’d start Santana over Madison Bumgarner, Sonny Gray and Gio Gonzalez.

9. Jordan Zimmermann – Mon at MIA, Sat vs. STL – Don’t worry about Zimmermann’s hiccup Wednesday against Miami. Every starter has a bad outing every once in a while, and he’s no different. I’d start Zimmermann over Bumgarner, Gray and Gonzalez.

10. Matt Garza – Mon vs. STL, Sat at PIT – Garza has upped his fastball usage against righties this season, and the results have been great so far. With a small sample size caveat applied, Garza is getting twice as many swinging strikes on the pitch than he has for his career, and the pitch is his best at inducing ground balls. I’d start Garza over Bumgarner, Gray and Gonzalez, too.

11. Marco Estrada – Tue vs. STL, Sun at PIT – Estrada’s pitching pretty well to start the season, with just over a K per inning. He’s walking a few more batters than usual, and he’s allowed two homers in just over 11 innings. There’s probably not a league out there where you’re not starting him, but he falls just below the top one-start pitchers this week. I’d start Estrada over Tony Cingrani, A.J. Burnett and Jeff Samardzija.

12. Yordano Ventura – Tue at HOU, Sun vs. MIN – Ventura averaged 99 mph on his fastball in his start Tuesday and topped out at 102. He showed off a nasty changeup, as well. His two starts this week are quite appealing, as neither team strikes fear into the opposing pitcher. I’d start Ventura over Francisco Liriano, R.A. Dickey and Matt Cain.

13. Zack Wheeler – Mon at ARI, Sun vs. ATL – In his first two starts this season Wheeler’s struck out over 24 percent of batters faced while walking only four percent of batters. But he’s given up 1.64 homers per nine and a .394 BABIP – both numbers that should decrease. So even if Wheeler’s strikeout and walk rates worsen, his home run and BABIP rates should be better. Arizona has been awful this season, and the Braves are averaging just over three runs a game while striking out at the sixth worst rate in the Majors. I’d start Wheeler over Burnett, Dickey and Cingrani.

Back-end options

14. Jake Peavy – Tue at CWS, Sun vs. BAL – The White Sox rank second in wOBA at home, 36 points ahead of the team that ranks third, and the Orioles improve to third in road wOBA, so Peavy’s a dicey start this week. I’d start Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke and James Shields over him.

15. Brandon Morrow – Tue at MIN, Sun at CLE – Morrow has a 5.73 ERA through two starts, but he has a 13:2 K:BB and a 61 percent ground ball rate. His FIP and xFIP suggest he should have an ERA in the mid-2’s. Both Minnesota and Cleveland rank fairly well in offense at home, but Morrow’s dealing and should see some luck come his way soon. I’d start Morrow over A.J. Burnett, Hyun-jin Ryu and R.A. Dickey.

16. Lance Lynn – Mon at MIL, Sat at WSH – Lynn’s strikeout and walk rates are great, but his home run rate is more than double his career rate at this point of the season. His BABIP is also over 60 points higher than his career average. Lynn isn’t due for monster regression, but his 6.55 ERA isn’t true of his skill level. I’d start him over Scott Kazmir and Samardzija.

17. Shelby Miller – Tue at MIL, Sun at WSH

18. Jesse Chavez – Mon at LAA, Sun vs. HOU

19. Phil Hughes – Tue vs. TOR, Sun at KC – Toronto is the third-worst team wOBA-wise away from home, and the Royals don’t have any power to speak of. Hughes had a couple bad matchups to begin the season, but this week he could be a good pickup if you want a cheap two-start pitcher.

If you’re desperate

20. Tim Lincecum – Tue vs. LAD, Sun at SD – Lincecum is striking out guys like it’s 2008 and has only issued one walk in two starts. But he’s allowed four homers in 10 innings; is living up in the zone way too much; and giving up a 37 percent line drive rate. In a head-to-head league I’d keep him benched, but in a roto league where you need the strikeouts and a possible win it’s probably safe to roll with him for now.

Starters to avoid

Week 3 Starting Pitcher Streamers

These are the top pitchers available in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues you should pick up and play on the day of their game.

Brandon Morrow – Tue at MIN – The righty is throwing as hard as he ever has (95 mph on his four-seamer and 94 on his sinker), and to go with his velocity his split and slider are getting whiffs at very good rates.

Nathan Eovaldi – Fri vs. SEA – Eovaldi is averaging 97 mph on his fastball, and he’s getting ground balls at over 50 percent. He’s very good at limiting home runs, and his line drive rate is a stellar 12 percent. Seattle’s offense has been good on the road to begin the season, but Eovaldi has gone at least six innings with at least five strikeouts in every start.

Jon Niese – Fri vs. ATL – The Braves have not played well on the road this season yet, and they’re striking out over a quarter of the time on the road, too. Niese has nine strikeouts and just two walks in his first two starts.

Jesse Chavez – Sun vs. HOU – The Astros rank just 25th in road wOBA this season, striking out 26 percent of the time. Chavez has allowed just two earned runs in 13 innings while striking out 13 and walking just two.