Profile

Francisco Lindor is a freshly turned 21-year-old drafted by the Cleveland Indians eighth overall in 2011. Lindor doesn’t flash the light-tower power of Kris Bryant or the five-tool package of Byron Buxton, but the Puerto Rican does almost everything well. His skill set appeals  to fantasy players in points leagues more than rotisserie, but the future Clevelander will surely end up on rosters in fantasy leagues of all sizes and settings.

Lindor has impressed at every stop he’s made in the minors. If you take just a glance at Lindor’s minor-league stats you may not be overly impressed, but look just a bit deeper and you’ll see that what he’s doing is remarkable. Not only is he playing the second most demanding defensive position on the field, he’s also produced well offensively despite being on average about 4.5 years younger than his competition at each level.

Pundits

Heading into 2012, his first full season as a minor leaguer, Lindor cracked the top 40 on each of Baseball America’s, MLB.com’s, and Baseball Prospectus’s overall prospect lists. His median ranking, from pre-2012 season through pre-2014, from those three lists was 32nd, 14th and 10th, respectively. He has moved up each year in the prospect rankings due to his stellar performance and makeup. This year he ranks fourth at MLB.com and fourth at ESPN, ranked by Keith Law.

MLB.com’s and Keith Law’s scouting reports are the reports I use most often for these prospects, as their reports are the most easily accessible for me. On that note, both reports rave about Lindor’s line-drive power and his ability to hit balls into the gaps. Law brings up his excellent contact ability and his very good plate discipline, both traits that will help him as he makes the journey to the Majors.

Production

I wanted to give you something other than runs, RBIs and average here, so I gave you several stats that should be translatable to the Majors as well as ones that are more skill-driven than luck-driven. The first thing that stands out is the age difference, again, so to possibly see underwhelming numbers here and on his whole stat line is something you just can’t do. His Triple-A numbers are in just 180 plate appearances, less than half of the other smallest sample from this chart. The walk and strikeout rates are just flat-out awesome. His isolated power isn’t great, but for a light-hitting shortstop I can deal with those numbers, especially since he’s increasing along each level. His Triple-A plate discipline numbers took a hit, but he also had a career-best isolated power. The stolen base numbers are steals/attempts, so at three of his four stops he stole at a rate of 70 percent or better, which is playable or better.

Projection

I compared Lindor’s numbers to Erick Aybar’s minor-league stats, as Aybar is another speed-first option who ranked in the top 100 prospect lists in the middle-’00s. Lindor compares favorably here. His plate discipline numbers are a tad better, and he’s done a better job base stealing. Aybar hit for more power, but he was older at the same levels compared to Lindor. I think a reasonable projection for Lindor’s first full season would be somewhere around .270/.330/.380 with 8-10 home runs and 25 steals. That’s not flashy, but when you take a look at some late-round shortstop options it’s not too bad.

2015 Prediction

Twelve-team leagues and shallower – Pass unless Lindor breaks camp with the team.

Fourteen-team leagues and greater – Depending on your bench size I doubt Lindor is a candidate to be drafted as I’m assuming he won’t appear in the Majors until later in the season.

Keeper leagues – I wouldn’t spend too high or large a pick on Lindor, but I do believe he has a very high floor if everything goes right. He’ll be a solid contributor in runs, steals and on-base percentage, so he appeals slightly more in leagues that count more than your regular 5×5 stats.