Profile

It seems like the New York Mets have developed a lab somewhere in a back alley in Queens and are producing big-league quality hurlers at a rate that would make Henry Ford jealous. First there’s Matt Harvey. Then came Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom. Noah Syndergaard is next in line to make a dent in the National League East. “Thor” is your prototypical Texan righthander, 6-feet, 6-inches tall and 240 pounds. He was drafted by Toronto in the first round of the 2010 draft straight out of high school, and he was traded before the 2013 season to the Mets as a part of the package for R.A. Dickey.

Syndergaard carries a high-90s fastball, 12-6 curveball and an improving changeup in his arsenal, which he’s able to go deep into games with. His first taste of Triple-A in 2014 wasn’t always easy, but even though he was pitching in an extreme hitters’ environment in Las Vegas he continued improving throughout the season. Syndergaard is the next in line of New York’s power pitchers, and he should be able to make an impact this year.

Pundits

Syndergaard is easily the Mets’ top prospect heading into 2015, and he ranks 10th overall at MLB.com. More from there:

A big, strong classic power right-hander, Syndergaard combines plus fastball velocity with outstanding command and control. He can crank his fastball up to 98 mph and will run it in on right-handed hitters. Syndergaard will add and subtract from his curve, giving hitters different looks. His changeup improved in 2014, giving him a third above-average offering. He’s always been around the plate, having walked just 2.6 per nine innings through the 2014 season while striking out 10. He’s a good athlete and repeats his delivery well, throwing downhill consistently from his 6-foot-6 frame.

Keith Law ranks Syndergaard the 17th-best prospect in the minors this winter:

Syndergaard just keeps chugging along fairly quietly compared to most pitchers who throw 95-plus, getting results while refining his off-speed stuff gradually but consistently. He’s now to the point where he seems like the safest bet of any of the premium pitching prospects on this list. … The Norse God of Velocity is ready for the call to Queens, with the floor of an above-average starter who can carry 200-plus-inning workloads.

Production

Stats courtesy Minor League Central:

Syndergaard has pitched in the Mets system for two seasons now, producing similar lines at each stop. At each of these stops Syndergaard has been three, four and six years, respectively, below the average age of players in the league. He’s been able to maintain elite strikeout rates and very good walk rates going against players much older than he is. He posted a very good fielding-independent ERA despite pitching in a tough environment in Las Vegas this past season and also seeing a .378 BABIP against when he hadn’t had one higher than .326 at any level previously. Don’t let his Triple-A numbers scare you off. He still posted 3.37 strikeouts for every walk, and his 0.7 homers per nine innings were just two-tenths above his career rate.

Projections

Steamer only gives us a 19-inning projection, so we’ll have to go with the Zips projection system here.

This looks like a great line. It’s hard to picture Syndergaard breaking camp with the Mets, but a midseason call up is very likely. That could put Syndergaard near that innings number, and his refined arsenal and above-average command tells me that his strikeout and walk projections are attainable. I think the ERA might be a little on the hopeful side, but most of these numbers look doable on his first trip around the league.

Prediction

As mentioned above, I don’t think he pitches the whole season for the Mets, but I can see three or so months in New York. In most leagues he won’t be worth rostering heading into the season, but in most keeper leagues he’ll be worth a roster spot for this season and beyond. He should be full-time in the Majors beginning in 2016, and his frame, minor-league production (especially at the higher levels) and his repertoire and pitchability make him someone you want to lock up sooner rather than later.