2016 Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft Starting Pitcher Thoughts
The good folks at RotoBaller celebrated Martin Luther King Day by hosting a fantasy baseball mock draft. Fortunately, they invited Brian Dunshee and myself to represent The Fix and round out the 12-team field. This mock was particularly fascinating in that only one pitcher was selected in the first 38 picks. So I’m going to take a look at where the starting pitchers were drafted and analyze how that could impact your own drafting.
But first, check out Nick Mariano’s top-notch breakdowns of the first, second and third rounds over at RotoBaller.
First round: Clayton Kershaw, eleventh overall.
Kershaw’s average draft spot is just past fourth overall in early NFBC drafts, and in most mocks I’ve seen he’s gone in the top half of the first round. So getting him at 11th is a steal. His floor is as high as anyone’s in the game, and at 28 this season he still has potential to better his once-in-a-generation career.
Second and third rounds: No pitchers selected
Fourth round: Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Madison Bumgarner, Jose Fernandez, David Price, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber.
Eight of twelve picks in this round were pitchers, and five straight were selected from 38th-pick Scherzer to 42nd-pick Fernandez. The only minuscule question marks here are Arrieta – he’s not going to be as good as last year, but can he repeat his ace-like performance? – and Fernandez, which is health-related. But you’d be crazy not to take a chance on them in the fourth round. Fernandez put up stats better or right in line with his first two seasons last year after he came back from surgery.
Fifth round: Dallas Keuchel, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, Felix Hernandez, Sonny Gray.
My first quibble here is with Keuchel going ahead of most of the other pitchers selected in the fifth. Keuchel was great in ’15, but he benefited from a very low batting average on balls in play and a high left on base rate. I know the Astros are good defensively, but with his lack of strikeouts (second fewest K/9 among these pitchers) it’s very possibly he has some worse luck this year. I would’ve taken deGrom, Cole, Archer and Carrasco ahead of him. Whatever you do try to get Carrasco on your team. His 10.58 K/9 was fifth among qualified starters, and his 2.84 FIP and 2.66 xFIP ranked ninth and fourth, respectively. He should have another strong season. Gray is another pitcher I don’t like this early. He struck out fewer hitters than ever (7.3 K/9), but that was hidden by career-bests in BABIP (.255) and left on base rate (76.8). I wouldn’t want him as my ace, but as a low-end No. 2 option.
Sixth round: Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg, Johnny Cueto, Michael Wacha.
Most of the hitters selected in the sixth and seventh rounds don’t come with much upside, so I’m fine with selected some young guns here, especially Harvey, Syndergaard and Strasburg. Those three have huge upside if they stay healthy and/or pitch a full season. I especially like Strasburg, whose 10.9 K/9 ranked third among starters with 120 innings as his 2.69 xFIP ranked fifth. I think Cueto will benefit greatly from playing in San Francisco, but his NFBC ADP is 78th and he went 69th here. I like him at 78 a lot more.
Seventh round: Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamels, Carlos Martinez.
I’m a Cardinals fan and Wainwright’s my guy, so I think this is a good spot to take him as a No. 2 option. He showed in the playoffs that his arm was just fine. Hamels continues to put up great numbers. His home run rate went up some in Texas, but his other numbers were just fine, so this is an excellent spot to take him. Speaking of excellent spots, Martinez, as long as he’s healthy, should reward whoever takes him in the seventh round this offseason. He was one of only six starters with a K/9 above nine and a ground ball rate above 50 percent.
Eighth round: Marcus Stroman, Jon Lester.
I like Stroman, but at pick 85 he went a couple rounds too early here. His NFBC ADP is 101. I’d rather take Danny Salazar, Michael Pineda, and Garrett Richards, to name a few. Lester put up his best strikeout rate (25 percent) since 2010 (26 percent) as well as the second-best K%-BB% (19.3) of his career in his first season in the NL. He should continue to put up numbers in line with his stellar career performance.
Ninth round: Yu Darvish, Tyson Ross, Luis Severino, Danny Salazar.
The ninth round is a perfect time to bet on Darvish coming back sooner than later from surgery. I’m also fine with taking Ross at this time, because even though his walk rate is ugly he’s striking out more guys than ever (25.8 percent) and allowing the second-fewest home runs (0.41 per nine) of any qualified pitcher. Salazar was my pick for steal of the draft, as the recently turned 26-year-old put up another great season. He’s shown he can adjust and produce, so the best is yet to come for him.
Tenth round: Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Pineda, Francisco Liriano, Garrett Richards.
Quintana is a very solid middle-rotation pitcher after three-straight 200-inning seasons. He’s bettered his K%-BB% each of the last two years and he’s able to keep the ball in the park despite a hitter-friendly home stadium. I really like the Pineda and Richards picks here, as they both have some nice upside, especially Pineda. Zimmermann’s move to the AL scares me some as his strikeout rate isn’t too special. I’d invest somewhere else.