2013 Fantasy BaseballBrett TalleyFantasy Baseball

2013 Fantasy Baseball, The Rubber – Week 10: Rest-of-Season Top 75 SP Rankings

iwakuma land
Hisashi Iwakuma
Source: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images North America

1.    Clayton Kershaw, 100% owned

2.    Adam Wainwright, 100% owned

3.    Yu Darvish, 100% owned

4.    Justin Verlander, 100% owned

5.    Felix Hernandez, 100% owned

6.    Cliff Lee, 100% owned

7.    Matt Harvey, 100% owned

8.    Hisashi Iwakuma, 100% owned

What a stud. Iwakuma was pretty good in his debut last year (3.16 ERA, 3,78 SIERA), but he’s been downright spectacular this year. He is 5th in ERA (2.13), 12th in SIERA (3.13) and 9th in K%-BB% (20%). He’s throwing more strikes in all counts and especially on the first pitch, and he’s inducing more swings on pitches out of the zone, which leads to more swinging strikes and weaker contact. That’s borne out by his increase in swinging strike rate (11.3%). His BABIP and LOB% indicate some regression, but he appears to be a low-three ERA  guy with well above average strikeout and walk skills.

9.    Max Scherzer, 100% owned

10.  CC Sabathia, 100% owned

11.  James Shields, 100% owned

12.  Anibal Sanchez, 100% owned

13.  Chris Sale, 100% owned

14.  Jeff Samardzija, 100% owned

15.  Madison Bumgarner, 100% owned

16.  Cole Hamels, 100% owned

17.  Doug Fister, 100% owned

18.  Mike Minor, 100% owned

19.  A.J. Burnett, 100% owned

20.  Mat Latos, 100% owned

21.  Homer Bailey, 99.7% owned

22.  Alex Cobb, 100% owned

23.  Jordan Zimmermann, 100% owned

About a year ago, Fangraphs’ David Laurila spoke with Zimmermann, and Zimm was open about the fact that he’s deliberately pitching to contact in lieu of trying to rack up strikeouts. That strategy has been even more pronounced this year as his K% is a career low 15.6% while his GB% is an all time high 51.5%. Zimm says he’s trying to throw to the corners and let the hitters get themselves out as opposed to pitching off the corners and getting them out himself. He has always had good control, so I believe in his ability to intentionally trade strikeouts for weakly hit balls. If you only need ratio help, Zimm’s ERA will continue to outperform his xFIP and SIERA because of his focus on weak contact. But if you need Ks at all, Zimm’s value is significantly reduced. I simply prefer more rounded pitchers who can contribute in all four categories even if they can’t help in ratios quite like Zimm.

24.  Stephen Strasburg, 100% owned

25.  David Price, 100% owned

26.  Hiroki Kuroda, 100% owned

27.  Derek Holland, 100% owned

28.  Hyun-Jin Ryu, 100% owned

29.  Matt Cain, 100% owned

30.  Jon Lester, 100% owned

31.  Gio Gonzalez, 100% owned

32.  Jered Weaver, 100% owned

33.  Zack Greinke, 100% owned

34.  Matt Garza, 87% owned

35.  Francisco Liriano, 93.9% owned

I forget whether I discussed this here on the site or elsewhere, but after Liriano’s first two starts, I advised you be cautiously optimistic while keeping an eye on his walk rate. When he has kept his walk rate under 4.00 per nine in a season, he has been very good. And when he has kept it under 3.00, he has been brilliant. It currently sits at 2.79 and he’s been nothing short of spectacular. His ERA is 2.17 and is backed up by a 2.49 SIERA. He has also struck out over 30% of the batters he has faced thanks to a gaudy 16.6% swinging strike rate. He’s unlikely to keep this level of success up because if he did he would be on track for one of the greatest seasons in recent memory. But as long as his control doesn’t fall of the map, he’ll be more than useful.

36.  Shelby Miller, 100% owned

37.  Patrick Corbin, 100% owned

38.  Justin Masterson, 100% owned

39.  Ryan Dempster, 49.9% owned

40.  Clay Buchholz, 100% owned

41.  Lance Lynn, 100% owned

42.  Ervin Santana, 61.1% owned

43.  Matt Moore, 100% owned

This is very simple. Moore has not shown an ability to control his pitches. He’s walking 10.1% of batters faced, which is the 10th worst rate in the league. He has been surviving on luck on balls in play (.228 BABIP) and with runners on base (84.8% LOB%), but we all know that luck runs out. It started to on Tuesday when he gave up six runs while recording just six outs. There’s more regression coming. Sell while you still can.

44.  Johnny Cueto, 100% owned

45.  Jarrod Parker, 42.2% owned

46.  Josh Johnson, 41.4% owned

47.  Kris Medlen, 98.7% owned

48.  R.A. Dickey, 92.1% owned

49.  Jose Fernandez, 55.5% owned

50.  Dillon Gee, 1% owned

My boyfriend! If you’ve read anything I’ve written in the last couple of years, there’s a decent chance you’ve seen me profess my love for Gee. I also write for Fangraphs, and the last four articles in which Gee has been tagged over there were penned by yours truly.

I won’t lie, our love was put to the test early this year when Gee posted a 5.96 ERA and 4.90 x FIP in the first month of the season. His ERA didn’t get much better in May, but his underlying numbers did. He had well above strikeout and walk numbers for the month (21.5% K%, 5.6% BB%), which led to an xFIP of 3.27. Unfortunately, his BABIP was an astronomical .394 for the month.

His velocity has been trending up this year and has most recently been just a touch under 91 mph, which is where it was last season before he was injured. I think he’s finally starting to get right, and I’d absolutely recommend picking him up off the wire.

51.  John Lackey, 42.6% owned

52.  Ricky Nolasco, 9% owned

53.  Dan Straily, 11.3% owned

54.  C.J. Wilson, 100% owned

55.  Julio Teheran, 55.9% owned

56.  Chris Tillman, 15.8% owned

57.  Alexi Ogando, 79% owned

58.  A.J. Griffin, 37.3% owned

59. Brandon Beachy, 22.2% owned

60.  Wade Miley, 47.4% owned

61.  Jake Peavy, 100% owned

62.  Wandy Rodriguez, 82.8% owned

63.  Mike Leake, 53.8% owned

64.  Tim Lincecum, 80.4% owned

65.  Tim Hudson, 69.3% owned

66.  Edwin Jackson, 19.5% owned

67.  Jeremy Hellickson, 44.3% owned

68.  Scott Feldman, 54.4% owned

69.  Corey Kluber, 2.4% owned

Anytime a guy has a 25.8% K% compared to a 4.5% BB%, you have to stop and take a look. Unfortunately, when you stop and look at Kluber, you see that the control is kind of coming out of nowhere. He has 110 major league innings with a walk rate safely above average at this point, but there’s just nothing in his minor league numbers that suggests he could be anything more than a slightly above average control guy, much less a borderline elite control guy. I’m intrigued for sure. He seems capable of maintaining an above average K%, but I need to see if the control holds before I buy in.

70.  Ian Kennedy, 61.1% owned

71.  Tommy Milone, 72.6% owned

72.  Bartolo Colon, 41.8% owned

73.  Paul Maholm, 82.4% owned

74.  Ubaldo Jimenez, 14.9% owned

75.  Trevor Cahill, 86% owned

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2 Comments

  1. Ben
    June 6, 2013 at 8:10 am

    No Jon Niese? Looks like he corrected his release point and in doing so upping his k%. He has been consistent for the better part of 2 years.

  2. jro
    June 6, 2013 at 12:30 pm

    No Gallardo, should i be looking to send him off or wait it out.