Projections for the 2014 season are already out from steamerprojections.com. After the 2012 season, Razzball did a study on the most accurate projection systems, and Steamer seemed to be one of the better systems at projecting both hitting and pitching. So I wanted to find a way to turn the Steamer projections into one fantasy value number, something similar to ESPN’s player rater. Thankfully, Zach Sanders came up with a system back in 2011 to do exactly that. If you’d like to read about the methodology, you can do so here, here, here and here. And if you’d like to see how Steamer projects hitters and starters to finish the year in terms of fantasy production, check out this Google Doc.

I’m in the process of going position-by-position and comparing the Steamer fantasy values to NFBC ADP.  I previously looked at catchers, first basemen, and second basemen.

Underdrafted

Pablo Sandoval / Steamer Projection: #4 3B / ADP: #14 3B

This is a massive gap between projection and perceived value by drafters. Steamer loves Sandoval so much that he comes out 26th overall with this projection. The case Steamer essentially makes for Sandoval is that he’s a very solid four category contributor. When you compare his individual roto category contributions to other hitters, he’s pretty much a top ten contributor at his position in each category aside from steals and a top five contributor in at least two categories. But probably the biggest driver behind Steamer’s love for the Panda is playing time. Steamer projects him for 651 PA which would be the highest single season total of his career and the first time for him to top 600 PA since 2010. It’s hard to find that PA projection reasonable, so ranking Pablo fourth at the position seems like a stretch for that reason alone.

The fan composite projection on Fangraphs, which would presumably lineup with what drafters are thinking, projects Pablo for 579 PA with a .298 average, 19 home runs, two steals, 71 runs, and 80 RBI. If you extrapolate those numbers out to the 651 PA that Steamer projects, this projection would look a lot like Steamer’s. I’m with the fans on the projection here because their playing time projection is more reasonable. But I’d say that projection makes Pablo the tenth best third baseman. Last year’s tenth best 3B was Manny Machado who had the same number of HR+SB and runs that the fans project Pablo to have, a few more runs and a weaker average. With tenth being a little closer to 14th than fourth, I guess I’m with the drafters here.

Brett Lawrie / Steamer Projection: #7 3B / ADP: #12 3B

I wrote about Lawrie earlier this off season over at Fangraphs, and I came to the conclusion that he’s not likely a post-hype sleeper. The long and short of that piece to which I just linked is that Lawrie hits way too may balls on the ground and doesn’t steal bases efficiently enough to be the stud we all thought he was going to be after his short debut in 2011. The ground balls are the big thing because ground balls don’t turn into homers. Over the last two years, in just shy of 1,000 PA, Lawrie has a ground ball rate of 49.5% and a 1.56 GB/FB ratio. For the sake of the benefit of the doubt, let’s add in Lawrie’s 0.85 GB/FB ratio from 2011 and use his career batted ball profile as a projection for what he might do this year.

Steamer projects 570 PA and when you take out the projected strikeout and walks as well as a few projected HBPs, Steamer projects 434 of those 570 PA to turn result in a ball in play. Using his career FB% of 33.5%, we can project him to hit 145 fly balls. To get to the projected 18 home runs, Lawrie would have to have a HR/FB rate of 12.4%. That’s not unreasonable, but in his last 978 PA, his HR/FB rate is 9.3%. If that rate holds, Lawrie would only hit 13-14 home runs assuming that projected number of fly balls. Because we didn’t see an upward trend in Lawrie’s fly ball rate last year, I see no reason to expect his batted ball profile to change. And hitters don’t really grow into power anymore, so I’m not counting on the HR/FB rate to increase either. Once again, I’m with the drafters here.

Overdrafted

Manny Machado / Steamer Projection: #23 3B / ADP: #9 3B

The only reason Steamer is low on Machado is a low playing time projection. If you extrapolate the numbers Steamer projects out to a full season, he would be projected to hit 4-5 more home runs than he did last year, steal 5-6 more bags and drive in nine more runs while scoring eight fewer runs and hitting .267 compared to .283 last year. I’d say the ups at least match the downs, and I think Steamer is essentially saying Machado would be as valuable as he was last year if we could expect him to play a full season. And considering that Machado was just barely a top ten 3B last year, it seems that the drafters are expecting him to play a full season.

The question then is when we can expect Machado back on the field. In a report from the Baltimore Sun just three days ago, we learned that no timetable has been set for his return and there’s no stated goal for him to be ready to go on Opening Day. Apparently the goal is for him to be healthy enough to play every day whenever it is that he comes back. That sounds pretty uncertain to me. I’m inclined to lean toward the Steamer playing time projection on this one. That means that you can’t really draft Machado in a redraft league unless you’ve got deep benches or multiple DL spots to play with.

Chase Headley / Steamer Projection: #15 3B / ADP: #11 3B

We all knew that Headley wasn’t going to be able to sustain his 21.4% HR/FB rate from 2012. And he didn’t. His HR/FB rate fell to 10.9%, which is right around his career rate of 10.3%. As a result, his run and RBI totals fell significantly along with his home run total from where they were in 2012. To make matters worse, he had a career low BABIP (.319) that was 16 points lower than his career BABIP. That played a big part in him also posting the lowest batting average of his career (.250) despite his strikeout and walk rates being close to his career averages and despite him hitting line drives at a rate well above his career average.

We have to assume the BABIP will rebound and that his average will along with it so long as his strikeout, walk and line drive rates stay at or above his career averages. And we have no reason to think they won’t. And we can expect his counting stats (HR, R, RBI) to bounce back as well primarily because his plate appearance total should increase from the 600 he got last year. He broke his thumb in Spring Training and missed the first two and a half weeks of the season. And he also had knee surgery on October 1 to deal with an issue he had apparently been dealing with since Spring Training. In addition to the extra playing time, being healthy should also help Headley’s steal total rebound a bit as well.

The question is how much rebound we can expect. Below is a comparison of what Steamer and the fans project.

I think both are off on the average. I’d peg it around .270. But I think the fan projection is too optimistic on the home runs and thus also a bit high on runs and RBI. As a result, I lean a little more toward Steamer here. Gun to my head I’d probably rank Headley 14th at 3B.