2014 Fantasy Baseball: The Rubber – The Best Starters That Few Drafted
The season has started, but my preseason rankings and projections haven’t been rendered useless quite yet. Here are the three starters I had ranked highest before the season that were drafted in 15% or less of ESPN.com leagues. In case you’re not picking up on the implication, you should probably add these guys.
Ian Kennedy ¦ My preseason rank: 40 ¦ 13.2 % owned
I wrote about Kennedy in the preseason over at Rotographs, but the long and short of it is that he was average or slightly better in 2010 and 2012, great in 2011, and awful in 2013. As for why he was awful last year, the answer is not that he lost the ability to miss bats or induce weak contact as his K%, SwStr% and IFFB% were in line with or better than his career averages. The real problem was a loss of control. His first pitch strike rate and zone percentage dropped considerably. The main culprits were his four seamer and cutter which saw moderate and sharp increases in ball percentage respectively. The reason for the loss of control is unclear. There’s no noticeable change in release point or any drop in velocity.
In his first start of the year, Kennedy went five innings while striking out four and giving up five hits, one walk and three earned runs. It’s a terribly small sample size, but he had better control off his four seamer and cutter in his first start than he did last year. His ball percentages on those two pitches were more in line with what he did from 2010-2012. Again, it’s one measly start, but it’s better than seeing him to continue to struggle with his command of those pitches. If he does in fact regain his control, he’ll return value.
If you can’t buy in on Kennedy long-term, at least buy in on his next start which will be Sunday at Miami.
Corey Kluber ¦ My preseason rank: 49 ¦ 9.1% owned
Kluber was trendy sleeper pick, but somehow his ownership percentage is in the single digits in ESPN.com ten team leagues. And his ownership could drop even further after he allowed five runs and eleven baserunners in his first start of the season yesterday. I’m actually guessing that those who drafted him were on that preseason hype train and won’t be bailing after one start. I’m certainly not jumping off the train anytime soon.
The reason Kluber was such a popular sleeper was primarily the above average ability to miss bats he displayed last year when his K% and SwStr% were comfortably above league average in just shy of 150 innings. The strikeouts weren’t a total shock since he posted similar rates in the upper minors. But the control he displayed was a shock. His 5.4% walk rate was lower than his walk rate at any level of the minors. Some regression is to be expected there. But even if he walks a few more, the strikeouts don’t figure to go anywhere. That means he should be able to keep his strikeout to walk ratio above three if not above four like it was last year. Only 42 starters with 150+ innings last year had a K/BB over three. Those kinds of guys should be owned in more than ten percent of leagues.
Jose Quintana ¦ My preseason rank: 50 ¦ 3.6% owned
If you want to read an awesomely complete breakdown of Quintana’s career and his success last year, make sure to read this piece by Jeff Sullivan. There’s a lot of good stuff in there, but the main takeaway for me was his improved performance against opposite-handed hitters (right-handers), which was presumably due to his increased usage of an improved changeup. That helped him post an above average ERA and a league average WHIP and strikeout rate. I said average a lot in that last sentence, but when you’re average or better in the three pitching categories that starters can truly control, the parts add up and give you some solid fantasy production. He’s nothing special and has far less upside than the two guys discussed above, but he also probably has the highest floor of the bunch.