Projections for the 2014 season are already out from steamerprojections.com. After the 2012 season, Razzball did a study on the most accurate projection systems, and Steamer seemed to be one of the better systems at projecting both hitting and pitching. So I wanted to find a way to turn the Steamer projections into one fantasy value number, something similar to ESPN’s player rater. Thankfully, Zach Sanders came up with a system back in 2011 to do exactly that. If you’d like to read about the methodology, you can do so here, here, here and here. And if you’d like to see how Steamer projects hitters and starters to finish the year in terms of fantasy production, check out this Google Doc.

I’m in the process of going position-by-position and comparing the Steamer fantasy values to NFBC ADP. I previously looked at catchers, first basemen, second basemen, and third basemen. Today I’ll look at shortstops that Steamer thinks are underdrafted.

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Erick Aybar / Steamer Projection: #10 SS / ADP: #19 SS

Aybar is as un-sexy as a guy gets. He’s never really been an elite contributor in any one category outside of a 30 steal season in 2011. But what has given him value is that he gives you a little bit of something in most categories. Last year, he was a positive contributor on ESPN’s player rater in all categories except for home runs. Among shortstops he had the 9th most valuable run total, 14th most valubale RBI total, 12th most valuable steal total and 15th most valuable batting average. There’s nothing sexy about that at all, but when you add it up, you get a top twelve shortstop.

Part of the reason Steamer is more optimistic than drafters is that Steamer is projecting Aybar for 630 PA. But that’s a ridiculous projection because Aybar has only topped 600 PA once in his career with 605 PA in 2011. He’s always right around 600 PA, but there’s no reason to expect him to get to 630 PA. Right off the bat I’m not with Steamer for that reason. But when scaled back to 600 PA, I don’t hate what Steamer projects: 73 runs, 58 RBI, eight home runs, and 14 steals to go along with a .274 average.

The only one of those projections I immediately disagree with is the 14 steals. Aybar’s speed has been on the decline as he has approached 30 as speed is want to do. He stole 30 in 2011, 20 in 2012 and just 12 last year. His success rate went from 83% in both 2011 in 2012 to 63% last year. I don’t see why his speed would bounce back at age 30. And that loss of speed is why I think the .274 average is reasonable even though he topped that in three of the four seasons prior to last year. With the decline in speed, his BABIP was 14 points below his career average last year despite a career best line drive rate.

The potential good news is that Aybar doesn’t have to rely on his speed to bounce back to get a boost in his numbers. Instead, he can rely on bounce backs from Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols. The key will be remaining in one of the first two spots in the lineup in front of those guys. In reality, he shouldn’t be hitting that high in the order. He’s never been one to draw a walk, but he managed to keep his OBP at least average with a good BABIP and batting average. But last year his OBP was just .301. Yet he still hit first or second in 89 of 138 games and in 33 of his final 38 games of the season. If he stays up in the order, he could approach 75 runs and be a borderline top 12 shortstop again. But if he falls in the order, he’ll be much closer to his ADP than his Steamer projection.

Ultimately, there’s no reason he should stay at the top of the lineup. Mike Trout hit in one of the first two spots in the lineup until taking over the three slot when Pujols got hurt. Assuming Trout moves back up in the order with Pujols healthy, Cole Kalhoun would be a much better option to join Trout at the top of the lineup than Aybar. Calhoun had a healthy walk rate and a .347 OBP last year. If Aybar stays up at the top, it will be for no other reason than Scioscia succumbing to routine. As a result, I don’t think Aybar sees enough work at the top of the lineup to reap the benefits of Pujols and Hamilton, so I’m with the drafters on this one.

Alexei Ramirez / Steamer Projection: #8 SS / ADP: #12 SS

Ramirez was a nice source of power at a position bereft of it for the first four years of his career with 15+ home runs in each season. But in the last two years, his home run total has fallen into single digits. Thankfully, the loss in power has been offset by a rise in his stolen base total. For the first three years of his career he paired his power with 13-14 steals per year, but in the last two years, after reaching the age of 30, he’s had 20 and 30 steals, respectively. As mentioned when discussing Aybar, speed doesn’t age well, but Ramirez’s has. His success rate on the base paths in the last two years is 75.7% as opposed to 63.5% prior to that. Whatever the reason that Ramirez has been more successful on the base paths, Robin Ventura, who took over in 2012 when Ramirez’s steals rose, is letting him run as he’s averaging 14.5 more attempts per year in the last two years.

All that said, we probably shouldn’t expect Ramirez to steal 30 again. Steamer’s 19 is a hair low in my opinion, but something in the low-20’s feels like the stick. I also more or less agree with Steamer’s .271 batting average projection. Ramirez has hit between .265 and .290 in every year of his career. Again, .271 might be a hair low, but it’s in the neighborhood. As for power, Steamer projects a bounce back into double digits in homers but not back to 15+ territory. But I think Steamer is a touch high on this projection. As you’ll see in the spray charts below, Alexei isn’t hitting the ball as far and he isn’t pulling it as much as he did from 2008-2011, so I don’t expect the home run rate to rise much. I think it will stay in high single digits.

And finally, Steamer also projects Ramirez to see his run and RBI totals rebound. This obviously has less to do with Ramirez and more with what Steamer thinks the rest of the Chicago lineup is going to do. Below is a chart showing the wOBA of the players at each position for Chicago last year along with the projected wOBA of the projected starters at each position this year.

As you can see, Steamer like bounce back years for Konerko and Viciedo and, to a lesser degree, Beckham and Dunn. Steamer also thinks the old Diamondbacks, Eaton and Davidson are going to be offensive upgrades over what Chicago had last year. I think an added benefit of having Eaton is that de Aza should make for an excellent platoon partner with Viciedo and give them even more than a .335 wOBA out of their left field spot.

Because I’m buying the increased run and RBI totals and think Steamer could even be shooting Ramirez a bit low on steals and batting average, I’m with them on this one and think Ramirez is a top ten shortstop option.