Last week I took a look at the players that are ranked higher than their ADP by three projection systems, Steamer, ZiPS and Mike Podhorzer’s projections. As I said last week, I like looking at projections because they’re smarter than we are. Admittedly, projection systems aren’t the best tool to use in identifying breakout players, but very few guys outperform or fall short of their projections to a significant degree. For the most part, using different sets of projections can give us a pretty reliable range of outcomes. And when all three projection systems think more of a player, that player is a good bet to be a value on draft day.

I should say when the projections systems think more or less of a player because today we’ll take a look at the hitters who have a ranking by all three projection systems that is worse than their ADP.

In the post from last week, you’ll see that there were no catchers who were ranked higher than their ADP by all three projection systems. When I converted the projections into rankings, I included positional adjustments, and I gave the biggest boost to catchers because it is the shallowest position. But drafters must be even more afraid of positional scarcity. Of the 14 most overvalued players on a percentage basis, six of them are catchers and Carlos Santana and Victor Martinez are also on the list.

Devin Mesoraco clocks in as the most overvalued hitter of all with an ADP of 59 among hitters, but Steamer, ZiPS and Podhorzer have him ranked 146, 140 and 104 among hitters, respectively. Waiting on catcher has always been a philosophy of mine, and with so many being overvalued according to the projections and none being undervalued by all three systems, I’ll adhere to that philosophy more than ever (two catcher leagues would be a different story).

Once you toss out the catchers, three other guys stand out as being very overvalued. After a discussion of those three guys, I’ll list all 64 guys that are considered overvalued across the board.

Todd Frazier ⋅ 3B ⋅ Cincinnati Reds

The projection systems obviously don’t like Frazier to repeat his breakout performance of 2014. But the drafters are expecting regression as well, just not nearly as much. He finished 15th among hitters on ESPN’s player rater last year, so an ADP of 38 among hitters tells us drafters aren’t delusional enough to expect a full on repeat. But a couple of the projection systems are very pessimistic with Pod ranking him 78th among hitters and Steamer ranking him 114th. ZiPS is actually almost in line with the drafters with a ranking of 40.

All systems can see that his HR/FB rate was a career high last year, and his rollercoaster BABIP was at a peak last year. Assuming his HR/FB normalizes and his BABIP lands somewhere near his average for once as opposed to the peak and valley routine he’s done for four years, it’s obvious he won’t be what he was last year. Maybe ZiPS is right and taking Frazier where you can get him will turn out to be the right price. But as the other projections suggest, there’s a lot of potential downside.

Chris Carter ⋅ DH ⋅ Houston Astros

In last week’s post I noted that I turned the projections into rankings by calculating how far above or below average players were in each category and adding up the differences for each category. What that showed was that guys like Ryan Braun who are positive contributors in each category tend to be undervalued, presumably because they don’t have one flashy category in which they really separate from the pack. Carter definitely has a flashy category as only Nelson Cruz hit more home runs than Carter last year.

But the juice is not worth the squeeze as they say. To prove that, Steamer, which is the most optimistic of the projection systems on Carter, projects Carter’s batting average to be farther below average than his home run total will be above average. That’s due in part to the fact that Pod projects Carter for seven fewer home runs this year as does ZiPS, while Steamer has him hitting four fewer home runs. When you add it all up, the good doesn’t far enough outweigh the bad to justify an ADP of 66 among hitters.

Justin Upton ⋅ OF ⋅ San Diego Padres

It’s possible that Upton’s ADP still includes drafts conducted before he was traded to San Diego, but I’m guessing whatever adjustment drafters were going to make to account for his new home ballpark has already been made. So assuming his ADP doesn’t slide in the near future, it’s safe to say that Upton is being drafted too early with an ADP of 27 among hitters. The projection systems have him ranked 34, 36 and 62 among hitters. Admittedly, that ranking of 62 (by Steamer) is the main driver of Upton looking overvalued, but the other systems being seven and nine spots lower on a guy going so early is still a pretty negative stance.

Upton is going right around the same spot as the aforementioned Braun, and there’s little doubt in my mind that Braun is the better pick. Where Braun is projected to be a well above average contributor in each of the standard 5×5 roto categories, even the most optimisitc projection of Upton (Podhorzer) has him being just slightly above average in steals and batting average. The most pessimistic projection (Steamer) has him below average in those two categories and just above average in runs.

Below are all 64 guys whose ADP is better than all three projection systems have them ranked. I’m breaking them up by position and listing them in order of their ADP.

Catcher: Of the 64 guys on the list, 21 are catchers. I’m not going to type all of their names. Just wait on catcher.

First Base: Victor Martinez, Joey Votto, Carlos Santana, Chris Carter, Matt Adams, Stephen Vogt, Ryan Howard, C.J. Cron (Cron will probably move up projections once they update for Josh Hamilton‘s absence)

Second Base: Anthony Rendon, Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, Mike Aviles, Luis Valbuena

Third Base: Todd Frazier, Kyle Seager, David Wright, Matt Carpenter, Aramis Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Mike Moustakas, Juan Uribe, Justin Turner, Casey McGehee

Shortstop: Alexei Ramirez, Danny Santana, Jhonny Peralta, Andrelton Simmons, J.J. Hardy, Didi Gregorius, Brandon Crawford, Jung-ho Kang, Jordy Mercer

Outfield: Justin Upton, George Springer, Nelson Cruz, Wil Myers, Josh Hamilton, Rajai Davis, Carlos Beltran, Brock Holt, Dalton Pompey, Andre Ethier, Jordan Schafer