Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Monday’s 11-game, all-day slate. We’ve also got projections derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Today’s post only covers the DraftKings all-day slate. The 11 games today are split five in the afternoon and six in the evening. I’m of the opinion that it’s harder to make money playing short slates, so I avoid playing split slates like that. And with no late swap on sites like FanDuel or Fantasy Aces, playing the all-day slates there can be risky. But 11 games is a big enough slate, and DK allows late swaps, so those contests there are worth playing.

Pitching Perspective

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We’ve got good top-end options today and some good, cheap value plays, but the middle of the pack is a bit thin.

Starting with the elite options, Max Scherzer, David Price and Jon Lester are the big names on them mound today and the three most expensive starters of the day. Right off the bat I can dismiss Price. The projections embedded towards the bottom of this post have Price projected lower than Lester despite being more expensive and have him projected well below Scherzer.

Scherzer is by no means cheap, but his projection is high enough to justify his high price tag. He’ll have a non-threatening matchup against the Braves, though it remains to be seen if the Braves will be more prone to strikeouts than they were last year when they had the second lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

As for Lester, he’ll face the Reds who were middle of the pack in terms of both wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching last year. There’s really no adjustment to be made up or down from his base projection, but his salary is good enough to make him a bit of a value even in an average matchup.

As for value options, Brandon Finnegan and Nick Tropeano are under-priced per the projections. Finnegan was excellent in his first start of the season allowing just four base runners and striking out nine over six innings. That start was against the Phillies, and the Cubs will present a tougher test today. But the Cubs easily led the league in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching last year, so the matchup has upside. Tropeano has been roughly average in his almost 60 career MLB innings, so as the cheapest pitcher of the day at $5,000, he’s certainly under-priced. But with Finnegan only being $900 more expensive, my guess is that you won’t need the extra $900 of salary relief that Tropeano provides to make a roster you like.

In the middle of the pack Sonny Gray and Steven Matz are priced just about right. If you happen to like either one of those guys for any particular reason, feel free to use them. But with Finnegan, or even Tropeano, being a viable cheap option, you should be able to fit in Scherzer or Lester into your lineups easily without needing to sample from the middle of the pack.

Stack Options

Houston Astros – Houston will face Chris Young today who pulled off a fantastic trick last season by posting a 3.06 ERA along with a 5.33 xFIP. How Young pulls off such a trick is by giving up a ton of fly balls (64.3 percent) and keeping them in the park at a rate somewhat close to league average. That’s how he ended up with a .209 BABIP last year. This is a trick that can be repeated, but he’s never before pulled it off with quite that much success. There’s some risk here that Houston just hits a lot of balls to Kansas City’s very capable outfielders, but there’s also the upside of multiple home runs. Young had as many games last season where he allowed multiple home runs as he did games where he only gave up one home run. Left-handers are probably a little more likely to do damage, but left- and right-handers had roughly the same HR/FB off Young last year. This game is also in Houston, which is far more favorable to hitters than Kansas City.

New York Mets – The Mets have all of nine runs in their first five games, and a lack of offense is not something unfamiliar when it comes to the Mets. They’ll have a chance to get right today against Jarred Cosart who allowed four or more earned runs in five of his 13 starts last year en route to a 4.52 ERA. And he was worse against right-handers than he was against lefties, so you don’t have to stick to New York’s left-handers, though the Mets do have quite a few lefties they can throw at Cosart. David Wright is about the only guy in their top six I wouldn’t consider.

Philadelphia Phillies – Andrew Cashner has a serious split issue. His xFIP against right-handers last year was 2.99, but his xFIP against left-handers was almost two runs higher at 4.95. Lefties posted a .383 wOBA and 1.58 HR/9, which is a fair amount of damage. Philadelphia has quite a few left-handers and switch hitters, so they should be able to present a lineup that could give Cashner trouble. Avoid any right-handers that are included in the lineup, but you should be able to come up with a streamlined stack of lefties.

Player Rankings

DraftKings

Catcher

1. Jason Castro – $3,200
2. Salvador Perez – $3,500
3. James McCann – $3,200
4. Travis d’Arnaud – $3,700

First Base

1. Adam Lind – $3,700
2. Ryan Howard – $3,600
3. Matt Adams – $3,200
4. Lucas Duda – $4,300

Second Base

1. Neil Walker – $3,900
2. Cory Spangenberg – $2,900
3. Cesar Hernandez – $2,900
4. Robinson Cano – $4,400

Third Base

1. Luis Valbuena – $3,600
2. Kyle Seager – $4,200
3. Miguel Sano – $4,100
4. Kris Bryant – $4,800

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa – $4,900
2. Freddy Galvis – $3,100
3. Alexi Amarista – $2,500
4. Marwin Gonzalez – $3,00

Outfield

1. Giancarlo Stanton – $5,300
2. Colby Rasmus – $3,400
3. Preston Tucker – $3,300
4. Cedirc Hunter – $2,900
5. Carlos Gomez – $4,500
6. Yoenis Cespedes – $4,600
7. George Springer – $5,000
8. Alejandro de Aza – $3,300
9. Odubel Herrera – $3,200
10. Leonys Martin – $2,900

Starting Pitcher

1. Max Scherzer – $13,100
2. Brandon Finnegan – $5,900
3. Jon Lester – $10,500
4. Sonny Gray – $9,600
5. Steven Matz – $9,200
6. Nick Tropeano – $5,000

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

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