Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: April 12, 2016
Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 10-game evening slate around the industry. We’ve also got projections derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.
Pitching Perspective
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There are three stud options going tonight, Corey Kluber, Jose Fernandez and Noah Syndergaard. The projections embedded at the bottom of this post have them all with similar projections. They all have matchups that are better than average based on how their opponents fared last year against right-handers, and they’re all pitching in favorable parks.
The best way to decide between them is probably price. The easiest call is Syndergaard on DraftKings, where he’s substantially cheaper than the other two. On FanDuel, Kluber is a hair cheaper than the other two, and he has the best projection by a slight margin. On Fantasy Aces, Kluber and Fernandez have the same salary and are a tad cheaper than Syndergaard.
Another factor in Kluber’s favor is his opposing pitcher. He’ll face Tampa’s Matt Moore. Though Moore was decent in his first start of the season, he can’t be trusted. Fernandez and Syndergaard, on the other hand, will face each other. And using both of them in the same lineup (if possible salary-wise), isn’t a great idea.
Ultimately, one of these guys probably has to be your starter on FD, a one-starter site, and one of the two has to be one of your two starters on two-starter sites like DK or Aces.
As for value options, Aaron Sanchez may be your best bet. The concern with Sanchez is that he has struggled with left-handers in the past, and he’ll face the Yankees who can throw a lefty-heavy top half of the order at him. But Sanchez was very good in his first start of the season, and he’s priced well on DK and Aces, which happen to be the sites where you’ll need a second starter.
Hector Santiago is the other guy who looks to be a decent value on DK and Aces. He’s a fly ball pitcher whose biggest issue is keeping balls in the park. The ball park may help with that problem tonight as he’ll be in Oakland, which had the fourth lowest home run park factor last year. So if you don’t trust Sanchez, Santiago is the next best cheap option.
Stack Options
Colorado Rockies – This is an obvious stack option with this game being in Coors, but Jeff Samardzija starting for the opposing Giants makes this stack even more attractive. Samardzija allowed 1.77 HR/9 to left-handed hitters last year, and the Rox have some lefties that can take advantage of that matchup and the ball park. Carlos Gonzalez is the most obvious play of the day, and other left-handers like Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra and even Ben Paulsen (if he’s in the lineup) are good options as well. And from the right side, Trevor Story is hotter than two mice copulating in a wool sock on a tin roof in August, and catcher Nick Hundley is actually much better without the platoon advantage than with it.
New York Yankees – As mentioned, Toronto starter Aaron Sanchez struggled with left-handers last year. Lefties had a .380 wOBA against Sanchez last year, and all nine home runs he allowed were to lefties (and he only faced 200 of them). New York has Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran all hitting from the left side at 1-2-4-5-6 in the order, and even Didi Gregorius out of the eight hole is an option.
Houston Astros – Houston had a nice night last night putting eight on the board, six of which came against Kansas City’s starter Chris Young. They’ll face another right-hander tonight in Kris Medlen. Medlen was below average last year in his first action after a year and a half on the shelf. He’ll have a tough assignment tonight against a Houston team that can field quite a few lefties against him and some elite right-handers that don’t really need the platoon advantage. From the left side, Colby Rasmus, Luis Valbuena and Preston Tucker are all good options, and Jason Castro is a value option as well. For a stack, stud right-handers like Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa could also be used.
Player Rankings
Research Chart
Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.
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