Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Saturday’s 15-game, all-day slate on DraftKings. We’ve also got projections derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Today’s post only covers the DraftKings all-day slate. The 15 games today are split eight in the afternoon and seven in the evening. It’s harder to make money playing short slates, so I avoid playing split slates like that. And with no late swap on sites like FanDuel or Fantasy Aces, playing the all-day slates there can be risky. But 15 games is a full slate, and DK allows late swaps, so the contests there are worth playing. Were I to choose between the early or evening slates, I’d choose the early slate because that’s when the majority of the pitchers I like are going.

Pitching Perspective

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Lots of big name pitchers going today. Per the projections embedded at the bottom of this post, two of those names, Max Scherzer and David Price, are overpriced today. Scherzer remains a consideration simply because he has the highest projection of the day, but he should only be used in the rare event that you happen to have a lot of money left over to spend for some reason. And Price isn’t worth his salary for any reason.

The most underpriced of those big names is Matt Harvey. Harvey has struggled his first two times out, but as Eno Sarris covered this week over at Fangraphs, there’s nothing noticeably off with Harvey’s stuff. It’s just been two starts, and anything can happen to any pitcher over the course of two starts, so there’s no real reason to worry here.

But apparently the DraftKings pricing model is worried because Harvey’s salary is a whopping $3,200 less than it was the last time he started on April 10. Put another way, his salary is 27 percent lower than it was on the 10th. Harvey may have been somewhat overpriced last time out, but there’s no reason his salary should change that much from start to start. His matchup is average and the park is average, so there aren’t really any outside contributing factors. Take advantage of the price reduction and hope the bounce back starts immediately.

The other big name worth considering is Jake Arrieta. Arrieta isn’t a huge value or anything, but he’s under-priced by about $500 according to the projections embedded herein. He’s been very good through two starts with 12 strikeouts and just one walk in his first 14 innings. The matchup is a bit dangerous against a Colorado team that hit right-handers much better than lefties last year, and the Rox lead the league in wOBA vs. RHP so far this season. Maybe the matchup is a bit risky for cash games, but Arrieta is the kind of guy that always has enough upside for a GPP.

As for value options, Brandon Finnegan is the obvious name. He has allowed four earned and struck out 14 in his first two starts over 12 2/3 innings. He walked five in his last outing for a total of six through two starts, and walks were an issue for him in the minors. So yeah, there’s some risk. But his price tag mitigates his downside. His salary is right about average among today’s starters, but he’s got the eighth best projection among today’s starters. There’s definitely value to be had there.

The cheapest starter I could possibly recommend is Chris Bassitt. He hasn’t been nearly as good as his 2.92 ERA indicates, which is pretty obvious when you see his 5.06 xFIP. But ZiPS has Bassitt projected to be a slightly below average pitcher, and he’s priced well below average today as the second cheapest pitcher of the day. The matchup with Kansas City isn’t great, but the game is in Oakland which helps. If you’re looking for as much salary relief as you can get, Bassitt is your guy.

Stack Options

Baltimore Orioles – Baltimore is in Texas this weekend, and today they’ll face Colby Lewis. Among pitchers with as many innings as Lewis since the start of 2014, only two players have allowed more home runs per nine innings. He was a bit worse against lefties last year, but he allowed home runs at a slightly higher rate to righties, so hitters from both sides of the plate are in play. Chris Davis is one of the better options of the day, and Pedro Alvarez is a nice value option if in the lineup. Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop are also good options. Other options to include in a stack are Hyun-Soo Kim, Matt Wieters and J.J. Hardy. Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo are a bit over-priced.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs draw Christian Bergman today who owns a 6.14 ERA in 14 career starts. He’s a right-hander who has actually fared much worse against same-handed hitters, which is good for stacking purposes. Chicago’s stud lefties like Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward could be used with the platoon advantage, but all their righties can be used as well. Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler and even Javier Baez (if in the lineup) could be part of any stack. The best values are Russell and Baez.

Minnesota Twins – Since the start of last season, Jered Weaver, who will start against the Twins today, has a 4.53 ERA (5.11 xFIP) and has allowed 1.36 home runs per nine innings. He was about as bad against right-handers as he was against lefties with an xFIP just north of 5.00 against both last year. Again, that’s nice if you’re looking to stack Twins. Miguel Sano should be a part of any stack, but you’ll have to see the rest of their lineup card for the rest. Oswaldo Arcia is an option if in the lineup, and Eduardo Nunez is as well if he hits up the lineup again like he did last night. Byung-Ho Park, Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe are also options.

Oakland Athletics – Oakland will face Chris Young today, who is always a candidate to give up a few home runs given what a fly ball-heavy pitcher he is. This game is in Oakland, which is a good ball park for a fly ball pitcher like Young, but there’s still the upside possibility for Oakland bats. And Young is another guy who doesn’t necessarily do all that much better against same-handed hitters, which helps for stacks. Josh Reddick and Mark Canha are the best values on the team, though Canha has played sparingly this year. Other viable options are Chris Coghlan, Khris Davis and Stephen Vogt, with Coco Crisp and Yonder Alonso also being options if you’re going A’s-heavy with a stack.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Chris Iannetta – $3,500
2. Jason Castro – $3,000
3. Stephen Vogt – $3,400
4. Yasmani Grandal – $3,000
5. Matt Wieters – $3,400

First Base

1. Chris Davis – $4,900
2. Pedro Alvarez – $3,600
3. Mark Teixeira – $3,800
4. Byung-Ho Park – $4,100
5. Mitch Moreland – $4,000

Second Base

1. Jonathan Schoop – $3,600
2. Rougned Odor – $4,100
3. Daniel Murphy – $4,200
4. Jason Kipnis – $4,100
5. Dustin Ackley – $2,800

Third Base

1. Miguel Sano – $4,400
2. Luis Valbuena – $3,400
3. Kris Bryant – $5,300
4. Jake Lamb – $3,200
5. Justin Turner – $3,100

Shortstop

1. Addison Russell – $3,600
2. Eduardo Nunez – $3,200
3. Manny Machado – $4,800
4. Javier Baez – $3,600
5. Didi Gregorius – $2,700

Outfield

1. David Peralta – $3,500
2. Bryce Harper – $5,000
3. Josh Reddick – $4,000
4. Oswaldo Arcia – $3,600
5. Mark Canha – $3,800
6. Mike Trout – $5,500
7. Mookie Betts – $5,200
8. Nelson Cruz – $5,100
9. Yasiel Puig – $3,700
10. Brett Gardner – $3,600
11. Alejandro de Aza – $3,400
12. Carlos Beltran – $3,300
13. Chris Coghlan – $3,300

Starting Pitcher

1. Matt Harvey – $8,700
2. Brandon Finnegan – $7,700
3. Jake Arrieta – $10,300
4. Max Scherzer – $13,100
5. Chris Bassitt – $5,800

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

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