Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s 13-game evening slate on DraftKings, FanDuel and Fantasy Aces. We’ve also got projections derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

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There aren’t many top notch pitching options today, and one of them, Francisco Liriano, has been struggling and is possibly hurt. Yes, Liriano has a 2.45 ERA, but he has a 4.68 SIERA and nine walks in 11 innings. Fangraphs’ Jeff Zimmerman released his first PAIN Values of the season on Monday, and Liriano has a high PAIN value, which indicates he could be dealing with an injury. The matchup is good against San Diego so he’s likely to be highly owned, but look elsewhere. If you can’t resist using him, just make sure you only do it on DK. He’s too risky on a one-pitcher site like FD, and he’s way too expensive on Aces.

Your safest option today is Stephen Strasburg. He hasn’t been as good as his 1.90 ERA would suggest, but he’s certainly not been over-performing to the level that Liriano has. And Stras was better in his second start than his first, which is encouraging. The matchup in Miami is slightly above average in terms of opponent and ball park. He’s priced about right on DK and Aces, but he’s over-priced on FD, though he might be worth overpaying for on a one-pitcher site if you don’t trust anyone else.

Another popular option tonight will be Vincent Velasquez. There’s been nothing fluky about his first two starts, though maybe you could argue the opposition has been weak. But tonight he’ll face one of the two teams he’s already faced, the New York Mets, so the matchup isn’t an issue. The reasons you might not like Velasquez are what should be a high ownership percentage given how flashy he has been so far and the fact that his price has jumped significantly based on his performance. He’s priced pretty appropriately on DK and FD, but he’s still a bit of a value on Aces. It’s hard to ague against him in cash games, but perhaps you should be more contrarian in tournaments.

Jaime Garcia is also coming off a spectacular start with a 13-strikeout complete game shutout in his most recent outing, but he’s likely a bit more under the radar than Velasquez. Garcia has been very good when healthy recently with essentially a 2.40 ERA in his last 22 starts dating back to last year. He has a little more risk/reward in his matchup against the Cubs, but the game is in St. Louis where he has a career ERA of 2.63. He’s not really a value anywhere, but he’s priced about right across the board.

If you’re looking for a super cheap option as your SP2, consider Robbie Ray on Aces and Alex Wood on DK, where they’re both quite under-priced per the projections embedded at the bottom of this post. Both have struggled through two starts this year, which is obvious if you look at Wood’s numbers. It’s a little less obvious with Ray given his 2.92 ERA, but he has as many walks as strikeouts, which is a big reason why his SIERA is 5.86. These are GPP-only options if you need salary relief. For cash games, you should probably stick to Strasburg, Velasquez and Garcia.

Stack Options

Colorado Rockies – The Rox aren’t in Coors, but Cincinnati was just as homer-friendly last year according to Fangraphs’ park factors. They’ll face right-hander Alfredo Simon, and the Rockies are second only to the Blue Jays in wOBA against righties since the start of last season. Simon has allowed 11 runs (nine earned) in 6 2/3 innings so far this year, and he had a 5.05 ERA last year. Basically anyone that ends up in Colorado’s lineup is an option in a stack. And you can use Rox as needed in cash games, expensive or cheap, with the exception of Nolan Arenado on FD and Trevor Story on DK and FD where they’re over-priced.

Houston Astros – The Astros lean right-handed heavy in the lineup, and tonight they’ll face LHP Derek Holland who struggles with right-handers. For his career he has a 4.16 xFIP and 1.40 HR/9 vs. RHH, and in 10 starts last year he had a 4.90 xFIP and 1.85 HR/9 vs. RHP. The value plays are Carlos Gomez and Evan Gattis along with Jake Marisnick if he’s in the lineup. Studs Carlos Correa and George Springer are affordable enough with maybe the exception of Springer on DK. Jose Altuve isn’t cheap anywhere, so he’s best reserved for a stack and not used in cash games.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Julio Teheran can’t handle lefties, and the Dodgers have some good ones they can throw at Teheran tonight. Just this year left-handers have a .471 wOBA against Teheran, and he has allowed three home runs to the 33 lefties he has faced so far. Last year against lefties he had a 5.08 xFIP and 1.78 HR/9. So yeah, fire up the Dodger lefties. Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Chase Utley are all lefty options that should be in the LA lineup. In cash games, avoid Seager on FD and Aces and Utley on Aces.

New York Yankees – Eric Surkamp will start for the A’s tonight, and in 66 career innings he has a 6.14 ERA with no bad luck of which to speak. He’s been just as bad with and without the platoon advantage, so virtually any Yankee in the lineup is an option almost without exception. The best values are Brian McCann, Alex Rodriguez and Aaron Hicks (if he happens to get a start).

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann (best price is on DK or FD)
2. Yasmani Grandal
3. Evan Gattis (best price is on FD)
4. Russell Martin (best price is on FD)
5. Alex Avila (best price is on FD or Aces)
6. Devin Mesoraco (best price is on DK)

First Base

1. Chris Davis
2. Edwin Encarnacion (best value is on Aces)
3. Pedro Alvarez
4. Mark Reynolds
5. Lucas Duda (best value is on FD)
6. Adrian Gonzalez
7. Ben Paulsen (bst value is on DK)

Second Base

1. Neil Walker (avoid on Aces)
2. Jose Altuve (closest to affordable on DK)
3. Ryan Goins
4. Jonathan Schoop (avoid on Aces)
5. Rougned Odor (best price is on Aces)
6. D.J. Lemahieu (best price is on DK)

Third Base

1. Nolan Arenado (best price is on DK, avoid on Aces)
2. Alex Rodriguez (best price is on FD or Aces)
3. Chase Headley (best price is on FD or Aces)
4. Maikel Franco (best price is on FD)
5. Manny Machado (closest to affordable on DK)

Shortstop

1. Carlos Correa (best price is on DK)
2. Trevor Story (best price is on Aces, avoid on DK and FD)
3. Zack Cozart (best price is on DK)
4. Corey Seager (best price is on DK)
5. Didi Gregorius
6. Freddy Galvis

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez
2. Michael Saunders (best price is on Aces)
3. Gerardo Parra (best price is on DK)
4. George Springer (avoid on DK)
5. Jose Bautista (can only be used on Aces)
6. Mike Trout (can only be used on Aces)
7. Billy Hamilton (best price is on FD)
8. Ryan Raburn
9. Alejandro de Aza
10. Adam Duvall
11. Aaron Hicks (best price is on FD, avoid on DK)
12. Gregory Polanco

Starting Pitcher

1. Stephen Strasburg (avoid on FD)
2. Vincent Velasquez
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Robbie Ray (only an option as SP2 on Aces)
5. Alex Wood (avoid on FD)
6. Francisco Liriano (avoid on FD and Aces)
7. Michael Pineda

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

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