Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Monday’s 13-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ve also got projections derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

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You can probably tell that pitching is pretty deep just from the big names going today. Syndergaard, Bumgarner, Greinke, Archer. You could also add Danny Salazar to that list and maybe even everyone’s favorite sleeper, Raisel Iglesias. But it’s not just the big names. There’s depth today. Based on my initial look at the projections and values embedded at the bottom of this post, I picked 11 starters for consideration today. As it turns out, all 11 of those starters have an xFIP this season of 3.75 or better. And all but three of them are striking out at least a batter per inning with the lowest K/9 of the bunch being 7.85, which is only slightly lower than league average. So yeah, plenty of options today.

In an attempt to whittle down the field, let’s toss out some of those big names. The first to go is Madison Bumgarner because he’s probably hurt. And let’s toss out Zack Greinke since his xFIP is the highest of those 11 guys despite being one of the four most expensive starters on both sites. Finally, let’s toss out Chris Archer and Danny Salazar because they’ve struggled mightily with their control.  They’re walking 5.03 and 4.42 batters per nine, respectively.

If we were removing guys from consideration just because of a high walk rate, we’d also have to ignore Drew Pomeranz who is walking 4.58 batters per nine. But there’s a rather large difference between Archer/Salazar and Pomeranz. Pom is $3,700 and $4,100 cheaper on DK than Archer and Salazar, respectively, and $3,500 and $2,500 cheaper on FD. At that price point the risk of the walks is potentially worth the reward of the strikeouts. And make no mistake, Pomeranz has been on the Archer/Salazar level in terms of strikeouts with a 34.7 percent strikeout rate that betters both of them. I don’t know how you don’t use him as your SP2 on DK. As for FD, it’s just a matter of whether you want to go with a sure thing for your one pitcher or whether you want to save a bit with Pomeranz.

The sure thing today is Noah Syndergaard. He has the league’s second best strikeout rate among qualified starters, second best K-BB%, and he has a league-leading xFIP of 1.52. No other starter has an xFIP under 2.00, and only three starters have an xFIP within one run of Syndergaard’s. He’s priced pretty decently on DK, so I have no clue how you possibly fade him in cash games. And on FD it really just comes down to whether you can find enough value bats to fit him in or whether you load up on bats and go with Pomeranz.

In the interest of giving you more than two pitching options, Garrett Richards is nicely priced on both sites. If you’re looking to fade Syndergaard in GPPs, Richards/Pomeranz would work as a pair on a two-pitcher site like DK. He has struggled a bit with walks as well, but not to the degree that Pomeranz has. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning and generating ground balls about half the time.

Stack Options

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates will have the pleasure of playing at Coors this week, and on Monday they’ll face Chad Bettis, starting in place of Jorge de la Rosa. The thought was originally that left-hander Chris Rusin would fill in for JDLR, but instead it’s the right-handed Bettis. That means it’s the lefties you want to target tonight like Matt Joyce, John Jaso and Gregory Polanco, while right-handes like Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and Starling Marte lose appeal.

Seattle Mariners – Doug Fister still stinks. He’s got a 5.94 ERA (4.25 xFIP), and he has allowed three home runs in 16 2/3 innings so far, all of which have been hit by left-handed hitters. Fister had a 5.03 xFIP against lefties last year, so fire up the Seattle southpaws, which is something they have a few of. Adam Lind is a great value in this matchup, and outfielders Seth Smith and Leonys Martin could provide some good salary relief if needed. Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are also in play, and Nelson Cruz could be included in any kind of GPP stack.

Toronto Blue Jays – The Jays rank 12th in the league in wOBA, and according to wRC+ they’ve been just slightly better than average offensively. I say that not to scare you off of them today but as wishful thinking that maybe they won’t be all that heavily owned tonight, especially with a game in Coors to draw some ownership. They have a great matchup against Miguel Gonzalez who is making his season debut. Gonzalez had a 4.91 ERA in 26 starts last year and allowed 1.49 home runs per nine innings. He faced the Jays once last year and was chased in the fourth inning. Edwin Encarnacion is priced affordably and, to a lesser degree, so is Jose Bautista. Josh Donaldson is a little pricey and should probably be left for stacks. Value options include Russell Martin if he’s back in the lineup, Ezequiel Carrera if he leads off again, and Ryan Goins if you’re desperate for a minimum price punt play.

Colorado, Boston, Cleveland and the Yankees all make some sense as stack options as well. If you were leaning that direction, go for it. And a potentially low-owned stack could be the Mets against the aforementioned preseason sleeper, Iglesias. He’s not horrific against left-handed hitters, but he definitely exhibits a typical split, so a lefty Mets stack is an option.

Player Rankings

Catcher

1. Brian McCann
2. Russell Martin
3. Stephen Vogt
4. A.J. Ellis
5. Salvador Perez (better value is on DK)
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (better value is on DK)

First Base

1. Adam Lind (excellent value on FD)
2. Edwin Encarnacion
3. David Ortiz
4. Lucas Duda
5. Mark Reynolds
6. Mike Napoli (better value is on FD)

Second Base

1. Neil Walker
2. Robinson Cano (better value is on FD)
3. Rougned Odor
4. Howie Kendrick (better value is on FD)
5. Ryan Goins (better value is on DK)

Third Base

1. Kyle Seager (better value is on FD)
2. Derek Dietrich (better value is on FD)
3. Travis Shaw (better value is on DK)
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Nolan Arenado (more affordable on DK)
6. Josh Donaldson (more affordable on DK)

Shortstop

1. Trevor Story (more affordable on FD)
2. Brad Miller
3. Francisco Lindor (better value is on DK)
4. Eduardo Nunez (better value is on FD)

Outfield

1. Jose Bautista
2. Ryan Raburn
3. Rajai Davis (better value is on DK)
4. Josh Reddick
5. Andrew McCutchen
6. Seth Smith (better value is on FD)
7. Anthony Gose
8. Jackie Bradley, Jr.
9. Matt Joyce
10. Michael Conforto (better value is on DK)
11. Mitch Moreland
12. Aaron Hicks (better value is on FD)
13. Leonys Martin

Starting Pitcher

1. Noah Syndergaard (better value is on DK)
2. Drew Pomeranz
3. Garrett Richards
4. Danny Salazar (better value is onFD)
5. Raisel Iglesias (better value is on FD)
6. Ian Kennedy (better value is on FD)

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projections and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

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