Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Tuesday’s nine-game evening slate around the DFS industry. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Pitching Perspective

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With so many aces going on “Opening Day” yesterday, tonight’s slate lacks a ton of big names. But the two biggest names are Jon Lester and Johnny Cueto. Of the two, give me Lester. Their matchups against the Angels (Lester) and the Brewers (Cueto) are about the same based on how those teams performed last year against pitchers of Lester’s and Cueto’s handedness. But the ballpark is definitely better for Lester out on the West Coast in LA, while Cueto, who will get that West Coast benefit a lot this year, is on the road in Milwaukee. And when it comes to price, neither one is a great value on DK, with Cueto having the slight edge there, but Lester is a much better value on FD.

The value play of the day is Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez struck out too few and walked too many last year, but he makes his game work by generating a butt load of ground balls. He has a ground ball rate of 61.6 percent in 125 major league innings. There’s some risk involved given that Sanchez’s ERA far outpaced his peripheral numbers last year, but all the variables are in his favor today. The matchup is good against a Rays team that ranked 23rd in wOBA against RHP last year and had the seventh highest strikeout rate. And he’ll have the benefit of pitching in Tampa as opposed to Toronto. But the biggest variable in his favor is price. He’s one of the five cheapest pitchers on each site today, but my projections have him as a top six projected pitcher on both sites.

If you need to go cheaper than Sanchez or want to go cheap and just don’t trust Sanchez, Chris Bassitt and Jon Niese are both a hair cheaper than Sanchez on both sites, and both appear to be good values. But given how much my projections like Sanchez, I won’t be going anywhere else for a value play.

Other options include Scott Kazmir on DK and Andrew Heaney on FD. Both pitchers have above average matchups based on how their opponenets fared last year, and both have the benefit of pitching in pitcher-friendly West Coast parks. Sanchez has a better projection than Heaney on both sites, so I see no reason to use Heaney on FD. The choice there is between Lester and Sanchez. But over on DK Kazmir does have a better projection than Sanchez, so he’s a consideration, especially since you’ve got two pitcher slots to fill on DK.

Stack Options

Chicago Cubs – While Andrew Heaney is somewhat an option today, so are his opponents. Heaney, a left-hander, was very effective against left-handed hitters last year, but he struggled when batters had the platoon advantage. His xFIP against righties was a troubling 5.10. So guys like Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell are options today. Russell, Fowler and Zobrist hit 9-1-3 in the order yesterday, so that could work for a stack. You could also bridge the gap after Zobrist with Anthony Rizzo to bring Kris Bryant into a Cubs-heavy stack.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies tagged Zack Greinke for seven runs in four innings yesterday, and they’ll look to ruin another D-Back debut tonight when Shelby Miller takes the mound. Miller allowed the same wOBA to LHH last year that Heaney did to RHH, so lefties have to be considered against Miller if righties are against Heaney. Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra are the obvious lefties to target, and perhaps another lefty like Ben Paulsen draws into the lineup tonight. If Paulsen plays, Gonzalez, Parra and Paulsen would likely hit 3-5-6. Trevor Story out of the two hole is also an enticing option to add to that stack after he went deep twice last night, and Nolan Arenado out of the cleanup spot is also an option in a deep Colorado stack.

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers put up 15 yesterday and hung eight on Tyson Ross in 5 1/3 innings. Their lefties could have another good night tonight against James Shields who struggled mightily against lefties last year. Shields allowed a .380 wOBA to lefties, and they hit more than two home runs per nine innings off him. Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Chase Utley and Carl Crawford are all options today. They should hit 1-2-4-6-7 in the lineup, so to bridge the gap and go Dodger-heavy with a stack, add Yasiel Puig in the five hole.

Tampa Bay Rays – The recommended Rays stack didn’t exactly work out last night, and I’d still prefer to roster Aaron Sanchez over stacking Rays. But Sanchez definitely struggled with left-handers last year as all nine home runs he allowed last year were to left-handers. So Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison and Kevin Kiermaier and even Hank Conger, if he starts, are options. But I’m pretty half-hearted about this stack.

Toronto Blue Jays – The Jays had a better wOBA against left-handed pitching last year than they did against right-handers, but they still led the league in wOBA against righties. So tonight’s matchup with right-hander Jake Odorizzi isn’t a reason to avoid the league’s most powerful offense, especially when you consider the fact that Odorizzi has been noticeably worse against right-handed hitters in his career. The Jays are priced tough on FD, but plenty of them are priced well on DK. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki aren’t priced well, but any of Toronto’s other lineup regulars are priced for use on DK.

Player Rankings

DraftKings

Catcher

1. Russell Martin – $3,500
2. Christian Bethancourt – $2,400
3. Hank Conger – $2,900
4. Alex Avila – $2,800
5. James McCann – $3,000

First Base

1. Edwin Encarnacion – $4,500
2. Adrian Gonzalez – $4,000
3. Logan Morrison – $3,200
4. Chris Carter – $3,500
5. Justin Bour – $3,100

Second Base

1. Ben Zobrist – $3,900
2. Chase Utley – $3,400
3. Aaron Hill – $3,000
4. Scooter Gennett – $3,000

Third Base

1. Kris Bryant – $4,300
2. Jake Lamb – $3,400
3. Josh Donaldson – $4,600

Shortstop

1. Brad Miller – $3,200
2. Corey Seager – $3,800
3. Trevor Story – $3,500
4. Addison Russell – $3,000

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $4,400
2. Adam Eaton – $3,700
3. Corey Dickerson – $3,500
4. David Peralta – $3,700
5. Kevin Kiermaier – $3,300
6. Matt Holliday – $3,700
7. Jose Bautista – $4,500
8. Domingo Santana – $3,300
9. Socrates Brito – $3,200
10. Ben Paulsen – $3,000

Starting Pitcher

1. Aaron Sanchez – $6,400
2. Jon Lester – $10,700
3. Scott Kazmir – $8,300
4. Johnny Cueto – $9,600
5. Chris Bassitt – $6,300
6. Jon Niese – $6,300

FanDuel

Catcher

1. Russell Martin – $3,000
2. Hank Conger – $2,200
3. Christian Bethancourt – $2,000
4. Victor Martinez – $2,700

First Base

1. Adrian Gonzalez – $3,200
2. Logan Morrison – $2,300
3. Chris Carter – $2,500
4. Ben Paulsen – $2,600

Second Base

1. Ben Zobrist – $2,700
2. Chase Utley – $2,400
3. Joe Panik – $2,600

Third Base

1. Kris Bryant – $4,100
2. Jake Lamb – $2,200
3. Nick Castellanos – $2,400
4. Aaron Hill – $2,400

Shortstop

1. Brad Miller – $2,200
2. Trevor Story – $2,500
3. Jedd Gyorko – $2,100
4. Ketel Marte – $2,600

Outfield

1. Carlos Gonzalez – $3,900
2. Adam Eaton – $2,900
3. Dexter Fowler – $2,700
4. Matt Holliday – $2,800
5. Kevin Kiermaier – $2,500
6. Corey Dickerson – $3,300
7. David Peralta – $3,300
8. Melky Cabrera – $2,700
9. Joc Pederson – $2,700
10. Jorge Soler – $2,600

Starting Pitcher

1. Jon Lester – $10,700
2. Aaron Sanchez – $6,700
3. Andrew Heaney – $6,900
4. Chris Bassitt – $6,500
5. Jon Niese – $6,300

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from ZiPS and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

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