Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best teams to use for stacks for Wednesday’s all-day slate around the DFS industry. We’ve also got projections derived from Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections and rankings of the top plays at each position.

Keep in mind that there is no late swap on FanDuel, so if you’re playing the all-day slate there, make sure you’re rostering hitters confirmed in early lineups or highly likely to be in late lineups. In GPPs, you can stand to take a few more risks since the lower ownership rates add reward to the risk/reward calculation.

Pitching Perspective

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Three pitchers drafted among the top 15 starters in most fantasy drafts are in action today, but only one may be worth his price tag. Carlos Carrasco isn’t an extreme value, but he is underpriced according to the projections embedded at the bottom of this post. He’ll take on a Boston team that was middle of the pack against right-handers last year but struck out very infrequently against them, which limits Carrasco’s upside a bit. But the Tribe are a decent-sized favorite in this one, which adds to Carrasco’s cash appeal. He’s about equal on DK and FD in terms of value.

The other big names are Stephen Strasburg and Jose Fernandez, but their price tags give me pause. That’s particularly true of Fernandez who is the most expensive pitcher of the day on DK and is virtually tied with Strasburg for the highest price tag on FD. Fernandez has a middling matchup against the Tigers who are better against left-handed pitching but were still slightly above average against right-handed pitching last year. Strasburg is closer to being reasonably priced, especially on DK. But like Carrasco, Strasburg’s upside is limited a bit against a Braves team that had the second lowest strikeout rate in the league against right-handers last year. And unlike Carrasco, Strasburg doesn’t come a bit underpriced to offset that matchup issue.

Aside from the big names, there are a couple other good targets tonight. The first is Kenta Maeda, the Japanese import, making his major league debut. He’ll make his debut in favorable conditions against the Padres in San Diego. I have no personal opinion on Maeda at this point, but the ZiPS projections, upon which my projections are based, like Maeda quite a bit, projecting him for a 3.20 ERA and 3.86 K/BB ratio this season. He’s a good value on both sites based on those projections and in this matchup, but he’s especially cheap on FD.

The other good, non-big-name option is Patrick Corbin. Aside from Fernandez’s and Strasburg’s teams, Corbin and the Diamondbacks are the third biggest favorites of the day in Vegas. Corbin has 400 major league innings under his belt, and he’s proven to be slightly above average in terms of run prevention and strikeout rate with a very solid walk rate. He’ll face the Rockies who were 34 percent worse than league average against left-handed pitching last year. Using numbers from last year isn’t ideal, but at extremes like that, it’s hard to imagine the Rox improving to the point that they’re no longer at least an above average matchup for left-handed pitchers.

If you want to go really cheap in your second pitcher slot on DK, Juan Nicasio and Brandon Finnegan are options. Nicasio is the cheapest starter available on DK, but my projections have him somewhere in the middle of the pack for the day, so there’s value potential there. And Finnegan is a guy with two good pitches but lacks a third that may be needed to consistently retire right-handed batters. However, he’ll face a Phillies team today whose intimidating right-handed hitters are limited to Maikel Franco and, I suppose, Darin Ruf.

Stack Options

Los Angeles Dodgers – For the second day in a row, the Dodgers will face a right-handed starter who struggled mightily with left-handed hitters last year. Andrew Cashner had a 4.95 xFIP against lefties last year, and they posted a .383 wOBA against him. He also walked more than five left-handed batters per nine innings. So all of LA’s lefties are options today.

Minnesota Twins – This is a FD-only stack. The Twins will face Yovani Gallardo who was downright awful down the stretch last season. In his last 17 starts last year he had a 4.18 ERA (4.83 xFIP), and he struck out barely more than five batters per nine innings while walking over four batters per nine innings. Perhaps it was fatigue and Gallardo will bounce back this season, but a Twins stack is still worth a look. The Twins don’t have a ton of lefties to throw at Gallardo, but their top five in the batting order should include lefties Joe Mauer and Eddie Rosario, so focus on the top of the order for a Twins stack, with Byron Buxton out of the nine hole also being an option for the stack.

Seattle Mariners – Colby Lewis posted an ERA over 5.00 at home last year, which is where he’ll take on the Mariners today. It will be warm at the Ballpark in Arlington, even if not hot by Texas standards, and this game will feature the warmest temperatures of the day, which is good for hitters. Seattle can throw a very lefty-heavy lineup at Lewis with guys like Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Adam Lind being good options. And there’s also some value potential in their outfield with lefties like Leonys Martin and Seth Smith, who destroyed a ball into the upper deck in right field last night.

St. Louis Cardinals – While Juan Nicasio saw typical improvements when he moved to the bullpen last year (i.e. more strikeouts), he did not improve against left-handers. For his career lefties have a .362 wOBA against Nicasio, and he has a 1.35 HR/9 against lefties. This will be St. Louis’ first shot at a right-handed starter this season. Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong are solid options, while Brandon Moss and Matt Adams are also worth a look if in the lineup.

Toronto Blue Jays – Three days of DFS posts, three times the Blue Jays have been included in the stacks. They’re impossible to ignore today as they’re facing a left-handed pitcher, which meant good things far more often than not last year. That left-handed pitcher also happens to be Matt Moore who was a shell of his former self last year when he returned from Tommy John surgery. His fastball velocity was no where near what it was pre-injury, and he posted a 5.43 ERA in 12 starts. Encarnacion, Bautista and Donaldson are perhaps too pricey on FD, but their other righties are in play there. And the whole team continues to be conservatively priced on DK, so the Jays are very good options there.

Player Rankings

DraftKings

Catcher

1. Russell Martin – $3,800
2. Josh Phegley – $2,800
3. Christian Bethancourt – $2,600
4. Robinson Chirinos – $3,200
5. Matt Wieters – $3,500

First Base

1. Adrian Gonzalez – $4,200
2. Adam Lind – $3,900
3. Matt Adams – $3,200
4. Chris Davis – $4,900
5. Chris Carter – $3,500

Second Base

1. Kolten Wong – $3,900
2. Chase Utley – $3,400
3. Scooter Gennett – $3,000
4. Dustin Ackley – $3,100
5. Daniel Murphy – $4,000

Third Base

1. Matt Carpenter – $4,400
2. Josh Donaldson – $4,900
3. Evan Longoria – $4,100
4. Kyle Seager – $4,400

Shortstop

1. Corey Seager – $3,900
2. Troy Tulowitzki – $4,100
3. Jonathan Villar – $3,400
4. Trevor Story – $3,500

Outfield

1. Jose Bautista – $4,500
2. Jay Bruce – $4,000
3. Ramon Flores – $3,100
4. Delino Deshields – $3,900
5. David Peralta – $3,700
6. Seth Smith – $2,000
7. Joc Pederson – $3,800
8. Desmond Jennings – $3,300
9. Michael Saunders – $3,400
10. Domingo Santana – $3,300

Starting Pitcher

1. Carlos Carrasco – $10,000
2. Kenta Maeda – $9,200
3. Stephen Strasburg – $11,200
4. Juan Nicaso – $6,000
5. Brandon Finnegan – $6,300
6. Patrick Corbin – $7,600

FanDuel

Catcher

1. Russell Martin – $3,000
2. Josh Phegley – $2,100
3. Robinson Chirinos – $2,200
4. Yan Gomes – $2,500
5. Christian Bethancourt – $2,000

First Base

1. Adam Lind – $2,500
2. Chris Davis – $3,700
3. Adrian Gonzalez – $3,400
4. Matt Adams – $2,500
5. Mark Teixeira – $2,800

Second Base

1. Kolten Wong – $2,500
2. Robinson Cano – $3,300
3. Chase Utley – $2,600
4. Brian Dozier – $3,000
5. Jason Kipnis – $3,000

Third Base

1. Matt Carpenter – $3,400
2. Evan Longoria – $3,000
3. Anthony Rendon – $2,800
4. Trevor Plouffe – $2,500
5. Adrian Beltre – $3,300

Shortstop

1. Troy Tulowitzki – $3,500
2. Marcus Semien – $2,800
3. Elvis Andrus – $2,700
4. Jonathan Villar – $2,500
5. Ketel Marte – $2,500

Outfield

1. Jay Bruce – $3,100
2. Miguel Sano – $3,300
3. Jose Bautista – $4,500
4. Ramon Flores – $2,200
5. Delino Deshields – $2,800
6. Joc Pederson – $2,800
7. Ian Desmond – $2,700
8. Desmond Jennings – $2,500
9. Domingo Santana – $2,600

Starting Pitcher

1. Kenta Maeda – $7,200
2. Carlos Carraasco – $9,900
3. Stephen Strasburg – $11,300
4. Brandon Finnegan – $6,100

Research Chart

Below you’ll find my research chart for the day. Projections are derived from ZiPS and adjusted for matchup and ballpark. The closer a color is to green the better and the closer a color is to red the worse. You can download the research chart here.

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