Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy: June 3, 2016 – FanDuel Analysis
Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best hitters to use for Friday’s 14-game evening slate on FanDuel.
Pitcher Rankings
After the jump we’ll take a look at each of my top 10 projected pitchers for the evening. My projections are derived from ZiPS projections which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup.
1. Johnny Cueto – $10,800
Cueto has been solid this season allowing very few walks and upping his ground ball rate to almost 50 percent. But as usual (with the exception of 2014), his strikeout rate isn’t too far from league average. He’ll have a hard time racking up Ks today against the Cards who have a lower-than-average strikeout rate vs. RHP and the third best wRC+ vs. RHP. He’s a bit over-priced in this matchup, so look elsewhere.
2. David Price – $10,200
Price’s ERA is still almost two runs higher than his xFIP, but the positive regression has begun as he has quality starts in each of his last four outings with a 26:6 K:BB ratio over that stretch. Don’t let the 5.11 ERA scare you away. What can scare you away is price tag, though it’s not that Price is over-priced. Were I setting salaries I would have had Price at $10,300. But there are a few guys we’ll get to in a second that are decidedly under-priced and thus better options. Price’s matchup is squarely middle-of-the-road against the Jays who rank 15th in wRC+ and 16th in strikeout rate vs. LHP.
3. Noah Syndergaard – $10,600
Syndergaard is probably the best pitcher right now this side of Clayton Kershaw. He has a K:BB ratio of almost 10:1, and he ranks second and third in xFIP and strikeout rate, respectively. That said, he doesn’t have an ideal matchup today against Miami who ranks 14th in wRC+ vs. RHP and only has the 20th highest strikeout rate. If he was closer to 10K he’d be a more attractive option, though it would be hard to fault you for trusting him in cash. But I’m of the opinion that there’s better value out there to free up money for better hitters, and I’d certainly avoid him in GPPs given likely high ownership.
4. Vincent Velasquez – $9,000
Alright, here’s some of that value mentioned above. Velasquez has cooled from the pace he was on early in the season, but aside from getting touched up a bit last time out in a tough matchup with the Cubs, he hasn’t had any truly awful starts. His ERA sits at 3.63 and is backed up by an xFIP of 3.59. He ranks eighth among 104 qualified starters in strikeout rate, and he’ll put that strikeout upside to good use today against the Brewers who have the highest strikeout rate in the league vs. RHP. VV should absolutely be priced up around 10K with the other big boys today, but you can have him for $1,000 less.
5. Drew Pomeranz – $8,900
Pomeranz isn’t going to maintain his 2.48 ERA. With a walk rate over 12 percent, his ERA is going to rise towards his 3.59 xFIP sooner rather than later. But a 3.59 xFIP certainly isn’t bad and happens to be the exact same as Velasquez’s. That’s not the only thing Pom has in common with Velasquez as they both rank top 10 in strikeout rate. Pom also has a good matchup today, though it’s not quite as attractive as VV’s. The Padres will host the Rockies who rank 17th in wRC+ vs. LHP with the ninth highest strikeout rate. One thing Pom does have on VV is ball park as this one in Petco. The two are obviously similar plays at similar price points, and I prefer Velasquez just because of the strikeout upside in his matchup. But if you like Pomeranz better, you’ll get no significant argument here.
6. Yu Darvish – $9,000
Darvish will be limited to 85-95 pitches tonight and has a tough matchup against Seattle who ranks second in wRC+ vs. RHP. Look elsewhere.
7. Kenta Maeda – $8,600
Maeda’s 3.00 ERA is belied by his 3.92 xFIP, but Fangraphs’ Josh Shepardson recently made a pretty good case that Maeda’s strikeout rate might well increase, which would bring his xFIP down towards his ERA. That coupled with Maeda’s matchup today against Atlanta who ranks dead last in wRC+ vs. RHP makes Maeda feel pretty safe today. The problem with the matchup is a lack of upside as Atlanta strikes out less than league average vs. RHP. And Maeda did have his start pushed back a day due to a hand issue. This is getting a little nit-picky, so feel free to use Maeda if you like him. But Velasquez and Pomeranz still feel like better plays in this price range.
8. Danny Salazar – $9,500
Salazar’s xFIP is right around where Velasquez and Pomeranz’s are, but he has a tougher matchup than either of those two with a slightly higher price tag. Pass.
9. Carlos Rodon – $8,000
Rodon has a solid matchup tonight with the Tigers who rank 24th in wRC+ with the seventh highest strikeout rate vs. LHP. Rodon has been decent this year with a 4.24 ERA and 3.87 xFIP with the gap primarily being due to an improved walk rate for Rodon that is being offset a bit by some bad luck keeping balls in the park. It’s probably a better idea to just spend an extra grand on a pitcher today, but if you need the savings, Rodon is an option.
10. Chris Rusin – $5,600
Speaking of savings, Rusin is probably your man if you want to go really cheap with a pitcher. His 6.58 ERA is scary, but his 4.01 xFIP is respectable, especially with his price tag. As you might expect, Rusin has struggled at home (6.62 ERA), but he has been just fine on the road with a 2.89 ERA in five starts. He’ll be on the road and in pitcher-friendly San Diego tonight. The Padres have actually been slightly better than average vs. LHP, but they also have the second highest strikeout rate against them, so there’s plenty of upside and plenty of value potential for Rusin.
Hitting Options
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers rank 22nd in wRC+ vs. RHP, and they’ll face RHP Julio Teheran today who owns a 2.77 ERA. So while they may not seem like a good play, their left-handers are an excellent option today. Teheran has an xFIP of 5.80 vs. LHH this season, which is even worse than the 5.08 xFIP he had against them last year. A .235 BABIP for lefties off Teheran this season is covering up his issues against opposite-handed hitters which include an 11.8 percent walk rate and a HR/9 of 1.65. Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez and Joc Pederson are all good options with good price tags, and Yasmani Grandal and Carl Crawford could be punt options if in the lineup.
Stack suggestion: Chase Utley (expected lineup slot: 1), Corey Seager (2), Adrian Gonzalez (4), Joc Pederson (5)
New York Mets – The Mets rank 11th in wRC+ and fourth in ISO vs. RHP, and today they’ll get RHP Tom Koehler. Koehler has an unseemly walk rate of 14.3 percent, which, unfortunately for him, is only slightly higher than his strikeout rate. That’s led to an xFIP of 5.30, and his already bad ERA of 4.50 is likely to head in that direction. For his career he’s been just as bad against righties as he has against lefties, which is nice for stacking purposes. Despite recent struggles, Yoenis Cespedes is likely the best option on the team, and guys like Wilmer Flores or Alejandro de Aza could be punt options.
Stack suggestion: Curtis Granderson (1), Asdrubal Cabrera (2), Michael Conforto (3), Curtis Granderson (4)
New York Yankees – The Yankees rank 26th in wRC+ vs. RHP and face RHP Chris Tillman today who owns a 2.92 ERA. Again, this wouldn’t appear to be an obvious play. That said, the Yanks are likely better than what they’ve shown against RHP. Their .256 BABIP vs. RHP is by far the lowest in the league and 20 points lower than it was last year when they had the worst BABIP vs. RHP. The repeat league-worst BABIP isn’t encouraging, but it has to rise significantly from .256. They rank top 10 in BB/K ratio vs. RHP, so better days have to be ahead.
As for Tillman, his ERA is a bit of a mirage as his xFIP is over a full run higher, currently sitting at 4.24 thanks to some good fortune on balls in play and with men on base. Guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran have been the only Yanks half hitting lately, so they’re the best bets to help Tillman on his way to a little regression. Brian McCann is also a good option at a shallow position.
Stack suggestion: Jacoby Ellsbury (1), Brett Gardner (2), Carlos Beltran (3), Brian McCann (4)
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates rank fourth in wRC+ vs. RHP and get RHP Jered Weaver tonight, so this is a more conventional choice. Weaver has an ERA of 5.40 and an xFIP right near there, so he’s obviously someone to be picked on. He was just as bad against righties as he was lefties last year, and so far this year he’s struggled more with righties. That means right-handed Andrew McCutchen is well in play as are fellow right-hander Starling Marte and left-hander Gregory Polanco who was able to pinch hit last night and is likely back in the lineup tonight.
Stack suggestion: Andrew McCutchen (2), Gregory Polanco (3), Jung Ho Kang (4), Starling Marte (5)
Washington Nationals – The Nats rank third in wRC+ vs. LHP and face LHP Brandon Finnegan who has a 4.14 ERA and 5.00 xFIP. In his short career Finnegan has been worse against lefties than righties with fewer strikeouts and more walks against same-handed hitters, so any Nats are in play for a stack. That means that, if back in the lineup, Bryce Harper would be an option. The knee injury and how he’s able to play through it is a concern, but he’s got a reduced price point, so he’d be worth a shot. Other good options include the right-handers, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth.
Stack suggestion: Jayson Werth (2), Bryce Harper (3), Ryan Zimmerman (5), Anthony Rendon (6), Wilson Ramos (7)
Player Rankings
Catcher
- Brian McCann – $2,800
- Yasmani Grandal – $2,500
- Russell Martin – $2,300
- A.J. Pierzynski – $2,000
- Victor Martinez – $3,200
First Base
- Chris Davis -$3,900
- Freddie Freeman – $2,900
- Adrian Gonzalez – $3,000
- Ryan Zimmerman – $3,800
- Miguel Cabrera – $3,600
Second Base
- Jason Kipnis – $3,300
- Brian Dozier – $3,100
- Chase Utley – $3,200
- Rob Refsnyder – $2,100
- Jose Altuve – $4,100
Third Base
- Anthony Rendon – $3,700
- Pedro Alvarez – $2,600
- Chase Headley – $2,900
- Maikel Franco – $2,800
- Eugenio Suarez – $2,70
Shortstop
- Corey Seager – $3,400
- Francisco Lindor – $3,500
- Trevor Story – $3,200
- Didi Gregorius – $2,500
- Wilmer Flores – $2,100
Outfield
- Jacoby Ellsbury – $3,400
- Bryce Harper – $3,900
- Joc Pederson – $2,800
- Hyun-Soo Kim – $2,600
- Mallex Smith – $2,400
- Brett Gardner – $3,200
- Jayson Werth – $3,500
- George Springer – $4,000
- Aaron Hicks – $2,200
- J.D. Martinez – $3,700
Starting Pitcher
- Vincent Velasquez – $9,000
- Drew Pomeranz – $8,900
- David Price – $10,200
- Kenta Maeda – $8,600
- Noah Syndergaard – $10,600
- Carlos Rodon – $8,000
- Chris Rusin – $5,600
- Johnny Cueto – $10,800
Research Chart
Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet.
The Author
