Below we’ve got a discussion of the starting pitching situation as well as the best hitters to use for Monday’s 10-game evening slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Pitcher Rankings

After the jump we’ll take a look at each of my top 10 projected pitchers for the evening. My projections are derived from ZiPS projections which are cut down to a per-game basis and then adjusted for ball park and matchup.

1. Jon Lester – DK $11,600, FD: $11,000

Lester is pretty obviously the play of the day. His 2.29 ERA is a bit artificially depressed, but any regression he has coming shouldn’t be severe. And regression is unlikely to occur tonight against the Phillies who have been 38 percent worse than league average vs. LHP. Philly’s 24.1 percent strikeout rate vs. LHP is the fourth worst among teams in action today against pitchers of the particular handedness they’ll be facing. Lester is more accessible price-wise on DK where he’s slightly under-priced, and his price tag on FD will make rostering solid hitters difficult. Perhaps look elsewhere on FD and in GPPs on either site given his likely high ownership.

2. Steven Matz – DK: $10,400, FD: $9,700

Matz owns the lowest xFIP and SIERA of any starter in action today. He had a horrific first start of the season, but in the eight starts since he has a 1.51 ERA (2.85 xFIP) with 52 strikeouts compared to nine walks in 53.2 innings. He’s got a risk/reward type matchup today with the Pirates who have the fourth highest wRC+ of the day but also have the fourth highest strikeout rate. The iffy matchup plus price tags on both sites that are just about on the money don’t allow Matz to be specifically suited for either cash or GPP use. But were his ownership to be low, he’d make for a good GPP play. It just doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be lightly owned.

3. Chris Archer – DK: $7,900, FD: $9,000

Archer’s strikeout rate is down from where it was last year but is still plenty good at 25.5 percent. His problem has been walks with his walk rate up to 10.4 percent from 7.6 percent last year. That’s high event pitching, and it has resulted in Archer only making it past the sixth inning in two of 12 starts with two outings shorter than five innings. That’s not a recipe for cash game usage. But the strikeout upside could make him a GPP option. He’ll face the D’Backs tonight who are average in both wRC+ and K% vs. RHP, but the game being in Arizona does hurt the matchup a bit. If you want to roll the dice with him in a GPP, DK is definitely the better spot to do it.

4. Trevor Bauer – DK: $6,700, FD: $7,400

The quality of pitching tonight takes a pretty steep drop after the first three names discussed. Any pitcher you roster from this point on will be dicey for one reason or another. Bauer has a 4.27 ERA and 4.33 xFIP with a strikeout rate slightly better than average. Those certainly aren’t horrific numbers that make him someone to avoid. But his matchup tonight does make him someone to avoid. He’ll face the Mariners who have the second best wRC+ of the day and who strike out quite a bit less than average. His price is really good, but there are better value options.

5. Masahiro Tanaka – DK: $8,300, FD: $9,700

Tanaka is just a cut below the Lester/Matz types, but his matchup makes him less than appealing today. He’ll face the Angels who are slightly above average vs. RHP, and, more importantly, LA has the lowest strikeout rate of the day. Tanaka is priced decently enough on DK that he could be used there if you just want to be contrarian and roster a pitcher with decent numbers in doing so. But he’s way, way over-priced on FD.

6. Mike Bolsinger – DK: $4,900, FD: $6,000

Mike Bolsinger is not good. He gives up a lot of hard contact, and he has somehow managed a .237 BABIP this season despite giving up all that hard contact. That’s not going to last. But Bolsinger also isn’t awful. He’s added to his swinging strike rate this year and his strikeout rate is safely above average as a result. And his walk rate is reasonably close to league average. He’s among the cheapest pitchers on both sites, and he’s only a little below average as a pitcher, not well below it. His matchup with Colorado is fine as they’re basically average vs. RHP, though they strikeout less than average. So yeah, there’s nothing to get you too excited about Bolsinger, but he’s certainly cheap enough to potentially provide a fair bit of value.

7. Matt Shoemaker – DK: $7,700, FD: $7,900

Shoemaker is a better pitcher than Bolsinger. Their strikeout rates are similar, Shoemaker’s walk rate is better, and Shoemaker manages contact slightly better. Shoemaker also hasn’t had any of the BABIP or strand rate good fortune that Bolsinger has had. That said, Shoemaker is a lot more expensive than Bolsinger, especially on DK. Shoe’s matchup with the Yankees is slightly better than Bolsinger’s with Colorado, but only slightly and not really enough to make up for the price difference. Of course, Shoemaker is on an incredible run right now in which he has struck out 31 and walked none in his last three starts. That’s going to put a lot of people on Shoemaker, and I’m honestly not quite buying him yet. Lower ownership levels and lower prices make Bolsinger a better value.

8. Christian Friedrich – DK: $7,500, FD: $5,800

Friedrich is not good. Please do not be fooled by his 2.53 ERA. His career HR/9 is 1.10, but this year it sits at only 0.42. Sooner rather than later more balls will start leaving the yard, and Friedrich’s ERA will trend towards his 5.43 xFIP. The other big factor is his 14.3 percent walk rate, which is almost as high as his weak strikeout rate. But the inevitable regression might not start tonight given that he’s facing the Braves who have been a whopping 45 percent worse than league average vs. LHP with a higher-than-average strikeout rate. Bad pitcher outweighs great matchup for me, but if you love good matchups, Friedrich has one and is priced well enough on FD to potentially gamble with.

9. Jon Niese – DK: $7,800, FD: $7,200

Niese’s 4.36 ERA and 4.27 xFIP are pretty uninspiring. He won’t kill you with walks but he doesn’t strike many out, so there’s little to get excited about. But he does have a potentially exciting matchup tonight against the Mets whose 27 percent strikeout rate vs. LHP is easily the highest strikeout rate of the day. If Yoenis Cespedes happens to sit again tonight, the matchup would look even better for Niese. His price is best on FD, where it would be tough to roster him as your one pitcher. But if you’re looking for some upside and a low ownership level, Niese could be your man.

10. Danny Duffy – DK: $4,300, FD: $6,900

I’m skipping down to my #14 projected pitcher here simply to discuss Duffy’s value potential on DK. There are 30 hitters on DK more expensive than Duffy, so he’d obviously free you up to roster whatever group of hitters that you wanted. Duffy has been semi-decent in his latest run as a starter with 19 strikeouts and only two walks in his last four starts since being moved out of the bullpen. In those four starts he has a 3.86 ERA and 4.07 xFIP. Not shabby for someone with a salary only $300 over the minimum for a pitcher. And innings aren’t a huge concern as the Royals have stretched him out a bit allowing him to pitch into the sixth in his last two starts, with Duffy completing the sixth his last time out. His matchup with Baltimore is a decent one as they’ve been safely below average vs. LHP, though they strikeout at a slightly below average rate. If you’re looking to save as much as you can on DK, Duffy is an option.

Hitting Options

Chicago Cubs – The Cubbies are a pretty obvious play today. They have the highest implied run total in Vegas as of this writing and are facing my lowest projected pitcher of the day, Adam Morgan. The left-handed Morgan has been just as bad against lefties as he has against righties in his young career, which is nice for stacking purposes. Kris Bryant is the best play from the team, and he’s priced very reasonably on FD. Ben Zobrist is also a solid play as is Anthony Rizzo since you don’t have to stick to platoon advantages against Morgan. Javier Baez is a really nice value on both sites, and, to a lesser degree, Jorge Soler, Addison Russell and Jason Heyward are nice values as well.

Stack suggestion: Kris Bryant (expected lineup slot: 3), Anthony Rizzo (4), Ben Zobrist (5), Jorge Soler (6), Addison Russell or Javier Baez (7)

Houston Astros – Colby Lewis has been good this year, but don’t expect it to continue. He has struggled with home runs and stranding runners the last two seasons, and this year he continues to struggle with home runs though his strand rate has managed to be quite good. That’s unsustainable and will correct sooner rather than later. The typical top three in Houston’s order are the best bets tonight, with Carlos Correa on both sites and George Springer on FD being decently priced. Tony Kemp could potentially be added to that stack as he’s been connected to the top three via being at the bottom of the order. Kemp could be good salary relief on FD in an Astros GPP stack.

Stack suggestion: Tony Kemp (9), George Springer (1), Jose Altuve (2), Carlos Correa (3), Colby Rasmus (4)

Kansas City Royals – KC has a great matchup today against Mike Wright who is another pitcher who struggles against opposite- and same-handed hitters equally. And as Wright’s 5.88 ERA (4.66 xFIP) suggests, he struggles a lot. Eric Hosmer is a great option today at a great price. Lorenzo Cain and Kendrys Morales are also good options but better values on FD than DK, with Cain being priced out of use on DK. Reymond Fuentes and Chelsor Cuthbert could both provide good salary relief on FD.

Stack suggestion: Whit Merrifield (2), Lorenzo Cain (3), Eric Hosmer (4), Kendrys Morales (5),

New York Yankees – This is more of a contrarian “fade Shoemaker” type suggestion, though my projections do like the Yankees quite a bit. Shoemaker has been known to give up a dong or two in his day with a 1.23 HR/9, and this game is in New York, which is much more homer-friendly than LA. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are the best options, and Gardner has come out of a long oh-fer drought with seven hits in 12 PA over his last three games. Brian McCann is also a good option at the always shallow catcher position.

Stack suggestion: Jacoby Ellsbury (1), Brett Gardner (2), Carlos Beltran (3), Brian McCann (5)

Player Rankings

**Players are listed according to their FD positional eligibility

Catcher

1. Brian McCann
2. Matt Wieters
3. Victor Martinez
4. Salvador Perez (FD only)
5. Jason Castro

First Base

1. Eric Hosmer
2. Anthony Rizzo
3. Kendrys Morales (better value on FD)
4. Miguel Cabrera
5. Adrian Gonzalez

Second Base

1. Ben Zobrist (much better value on FD)
2. Jose Altuve
3. Robinson Cano
4. Ian Kinsler
5. Jonathan Schoop (better value on DK)

Third Base

1. Kris Bryant (better value on FD)
2. Kyle Seager
3. Chase Headley
4. Maikel Franco
5. Chelsor Cuthbert (better value on FD)

Shortstop

Outfield

1. Mike Trout
2. Mark Trumbo (FD only)
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
4. Brett Gardner
5. Adam Jones (FD only)
6. George Springer
7. Reymond Fuentes (FD only)
8. Tony Kemp (better value on FD)
9. Jason Heyward
10. Colby Rasmus

Starting Pitcher

1. Jon Lester (better value on DK)
2. Steven Matz
3. Chris Archer (better value on DK)
4. Mike Bolsinger
5. Matt Shoemaker
6. Trevor Bauer
7. Danny Duffy (DK only)
8. Masahiro Tanaka

Research Chart

Download today’s research chart from this Google Sheet.